Topic: New diff thread .diff in the 0.2% to 12.8% range. covers Nov 4 to Nov 17? - page 3. (Read 4748 times)

Coins are now over 370 usd.  This will cause faster growth. What fiat price do you think make growth go back over 10% for many jumps?

yeah you get one of them at most.

in the mean time

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


dropped a bit to (+9.61%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   39,603,666,252
Estimated Next Difficulty:   43,410,637,762 (+9.61%)
Adjust time:   After 1499 Blocks, About 10.2 days
Hashrate(?):   285,704,897 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.3 minutes
6 blocks: 58.6 minutes
Updated:   11:5 (4.6 minutes ago

and

 http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

jumped up to 2.16%

Blocks   329125
Total BTC   13.478M
 
Difficulty   39603666252
Estimated   40460574173 in 1499 blks
 
Network total   300775.267 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.37 / 566 s

so as usual the two websites are merging towards each others predications.

coins are around 340 usd

at 340 usd an s-3 goes into the red vs power at a diff of 93000m and 10 cent power.  

at 10% growth about 129 days

at 5% an s-3 would go into the red vs power at 240 days.

insurance will work first time, the second...

yeah and here is what I think:


https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.9473670


they are sweating the load   as to the possibility of sabotage .


 Huge easy target location is known to many in a 'free' country.

a big incentive to do a meltdown.  

hell knc may insure their center and not give a shit if they are attacked.

In fact makes for a great move.  build it out then  hash for 20-40 days  let it burn  down.  'insurance job'.

40 days hashing at  40-50 ph and then poof.

this is a spec thread so I toss out many speculations

I  still say slow build out is the way to go.

http://www.datacenterknowledge.com/archives/2014/11/06/knc-miner-to-build-another-20mw-for-bitcoin-mining-in-sweden/

    I liked keeping the threads separated by the actual diff time period.
 Now that I decided to moderate I may keep one long thread. I actually don't mind some of seriouscoin's info and ideas just got tired of the curses and insults. So far he has been okay on this thread.


current diff numbers are.

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/   +.3%

Blocks   329013
Total BTC   13.475M
 
Difficulty   39603666252
Estimated   39727601164 in 1611 blks
 
Network total   270632.001 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.73 / 629 s

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+10.46%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   39,603,666,252
Estimated Next Difficulty:   43,747,809,881
Adjust time:   After 1611 Blocks, About 10.9 days
Hashrate(?):   289,187,993 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.1 minutes
6 blocks: 58.2 minutes
Updated:   17:0 (1.9 minutes ago)

Why are you making new threads? Don't you like one single master thread?

back to topic:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  {+ 10.56% }

Bitcoin Difficulty:   39,603,666,252
Estimated Next Difficulty:   43,786,426,037 (+10.56%)
Adjust time:   After 1750 Blocks, About 11.8 days
Hashrate(?):   291,615,739 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.2 minutes
6 blocks: 58.4 minutes
Updated:   18:45 (2.2 minutes ago)

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/    [+ .15%]

Blocks   328873
Total BTC   13.472M
 
Difficulty   39603666252
Estimated   39666434386 in 1751 blks
 
Network total   292861.092 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.20 / 581 s


 1751 blocks to go.

The reason of taking offline would be problems in each one.  There is impressive picture in another forum of building during fire.   

With these being in there it would be hard to find any that were not touched by the fire.   I have a feeling since entire building went there is a good chance components burnt aswell in each.

I am not entirely sure what happened here, but I don't see any real reason why they would have to take all these miners offline. I would think they would surely have some kind of backup facility these miners could be moved to, as it appears that only the "shelves" collapsed and the miners appear to be in good condition

fire happened on 14 of october... and we have seen no negative difficulty on 23october...

The burnt out mine is interesting.  I am looking on the sp30 thread for a confirm.

thanks to seriouscoin  there is a confirm on the sp30 thread.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.9450123


pre-fire

http://storage.googleapis.com/spond_public/images/cowboyminer%20wall%20of%20SP30.jpg


and a confirm from sp-tech

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.9451562


Which all goes back to the why building out like mad with btc in the 300-350 range is extra risky.

I often wonder if a simple envelope with cash to the right workers in the right dc's and or farm's will become the best way to compete dc vs dc.  Well more coins for the ones that do not have any gear at that center.  I would  think more security for DCs and or farms.  Just think if that was 6-8ph 3 or 4 well placed fires and the btc world would have a radical change.  There is speculation it was arson or that arson has not been ruled out. 




@ seriouscoin thanks for the photo

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.9451830

from link right above

I wrote it before - source of the fire is yet unknown.
Arson wasn't ruled out. AFAIK, no insurance.
It was in Thai news: http://www.thairath.co.th/content/456629

Sad story, good people. Very bad luck with mining. It's not the first mishap.
I've visited their facility when they had only SP10 and Dragons. I was impressed.

Guy

Rates dropped on bitcoinwisdom to 11.51 % and are negative on bitcoincharts. Still a lot of time to go.

 great photo .  and still yet more reason for mining expansion to be in the slower more deliberate state is has been in since june of 2014.

When coins were 1k and diff was tiny(compared to now) a disaster like the one above was easier to overcome.

 now a 5mw plant getting smoked is a costly loss.

Seriouscoin I wondered if you have more info on this fire.  I am sure others want to know.


I found this thread :

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/nearly-burned-down-my-home-due-to-mining-farm-tips-on-how-to-stay-safe-517976

this user claims it is his gear:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/cowboyminer-319455

But no real proof of what the gear really is .  1400+  sp30's using up to 5mw  mining 7ph is the claim more or less.

Just no hard facts.  More then 4 million usd retail if true.

~8ph? nice! that's love of money! if it was true love i was carbonised on top of them!

big farms care less of the difficulty, they care only of theyr piece of pie! they know that the price will be back up tomorow even if they sell 1000btc today! look at the 30k dump and the price rise fter that!
they give a shit about small time miners! look at knc, they were like 4% of the network 2weeks ago. now is 8% from a larger network!

maybe they need to sell only 10% of the mined btc for maintenance, electricity& the rest of dayly/monthly costs...

Hey OP, I got an answer as to why the difficulty was slowed down last jump:





It was said to be 5MW facility......



I guess that makes you.... wrong again huh? Oh wait.... you're never wrong. Infact you should predict next difficulty jump to be 0-30%. You can never be wrong then.

yes this is a rare case two wrongs making a right.

Bitcoinwisdom has problem on opposite side, they do use recent hashrate to predict difficulty but have wrong algo which doesn't count in NEW difficulty level, so at each start of new difficulty they predict difficulty change at approximately same level as was previous one. As the time goes on, they slowly slide down to real numbers.
So basically you're right averaging bitcoinwisdom and bitcoinchart, but both use wrong algo, each from opposite side

I do it intentionally as it is a pure current rate based on now.  I use bitcoinwisdom because they try to combine past data with current.

If you add my 2 numbers .2 and 12.8 you get 13 take the average you get 6.5  which is just about the same as 7%.  

Nextdifficulty.com uses my method with a small variation.  They weight the current number more.

@ seriouscoin

 I actually like some of your posts and I have found some good info in them .  but the cursing and insults to many people on the site can get over the top.

@ mavericklm   while I don't think so If bitfury builds a .2 watt miner  the network has more to grow.  if they can build the so called .1 watt miner after that the network will grow more.   their ability to make .1 to .2 watt miners cheaply will cause a lot of growth.  of course no proof yet.

@ notlist3d  thanks.  the range  is always large if the last growth was high.

current numbers

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   328687
Total BTC   13.467M
 
Difficulty   39603666252
Estimated   39603518715 in 1937 blks
 
Network total   303747.263 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.55 / 550 s

This is negative growth at the moment about  - .00025 %

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   39,603,666,252
Estimated Next Difficulty:   44,527,742,075 (+12.43%)
Adjust time:   After 1937 Blocks, About 12.8 days
Hashrate(?):   291,391,703 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.5 minutes
3 blocks: 28.4 minutes
6 blocks: 56.9 minutes
Updated:   10:25 (4.3 minutes ago)


they have 12.43% plus rate

below are the last 10 jumps from June 29 to Nov 5  this is 129 days  and represents the end of the s-1 and the beginning of the s-3 from antminer.

or the end of the 2 watt miner and the beginning of the .8 watt miner.  This was the last big drop for power and it did truly start slower growth in diff.



Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979   3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s



this article was brought up in my last thread by xstr8guy

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20140915005202/en/BitFury-Announces-Technology-Roadmap-Sustained-Industry-Leadership#.VFpDpaUeauf

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.9439564

If they do produce these miners  there will be more growth , but the timeline will be slower then the fourth quarter of JAN for the .2 watt gear.

and slower  then June 30th 2015 for the < .1 watt gear.

All these asic builders have to watch out for zen/gaw miners  hashcoin launch .  This launch is a direct attack at BTC and zen/gaw has a lot of money behind them.

I am thinking if it does well BTC will suffer in price a lot.

https://hashcoin.com/

I have 3 threads on zen

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=698679.0;all
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/my-pool-experience-with-cloud-zenminer-dot-com-new-thread-old-was-locked-743152
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.8905466

I have under  500 usd invested with them at the moment.

https://hashtalk.org/

but they are a hustling company with a lot of wall street money and venture capital. (Cantor Fitzgerald  IIRC)   

 They could hurt BTC if they launch correctly.  If so bitfury would have sunk a shitload of money into .2 watt gear   for nothing.
My guess is all the asic guys are going to hold off on BTC mining growth for their data centers.

If hashcoin is a bust they will then point the .2 watt gear at the btc network.  so the .2 watt storm if it can really happen will be late winter of 2015 say feb 2015 not dec 2014.

This is  a spec thread in the spec section have fun with it.

10 to 15%
ac cooling is shut down and new miners are added!