New difficulty: 23844670038 +20.86% - Sucks!

cryptcoin_de

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Quote from: BitCoinNutJob on September 01, 2014, 10:42:51 AM

Quote from: bozo333 on August 19, 2014, 03:25:14 PM

+20.86% You gotta know when to pull the plug....

Turned off my miners this morning...until BTC goes back over $550. Need the fiat.

More bad news:
Estimated Next Difficulty: 28,023,615,809 (+17.53%) in 14 days.

Good news for the price though and even the Chinese miners are going to want to keep the price up.

Hopefully the exchange rate know that also. Wink

BitCoinNutJob

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Quote from: bozo333 on August 19, 2014, 03:25:14 PM

+20.86% You gotta know when to pull the plug....

Turned off my miners this morning...until BTC goes back over $550. Need the fiat.

More bad news:
Estimated Next Difficulty: 28,023,615,809 (+17.53%) in 14 days.

Good news for the price though and even the Chinese miners are going to want to keep the price up.

cryptcoin_de

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Activity: 269

Merit: 117

Quote from: xstr8guy on August 27, 2014, 06:31:31 PM

Quote from: Lauda on August 27, 2014, 12:01:13 PM

Quote from: bozo333 on August 19, 2014, 03:25:14 PM

+20.86% You gotta know when to pull the plug....

Turned off my miners this morning...until BTC goes back over $550. Need the fiat.

More bad news:
Estimated Next Difficulty: 28,023,615,809 (+17.53%) in 14 days.

Exactly why does the small difference in price matter so much? Are you instantly selling your coins? Then this wouldn't come as a surprise to me.
Why not keep mining all the time and sell it later if you have to?
I remember the days that I got into this business, the difficulty was 7M (!) or even less. It was quite some time ago.
If I only had a 4 TH/s ASIC then. Angry

Many miners sell BTC to pay their electric bill and/or to purchase new mining gear. So of course a significant portion of earnings are immediately sold.

This maybe is one of the biggest problems right now, the big mines adding more and more MW, they must pay there electric bill also, selling more and more BTC for all the bills and a real profit, adding more MW next, and and...

Difficulty goes up, exchange rate goes down, in a few month the big mines like BF, cex, peta and some china mines will have the control over the most mined BTC's and the network.

This can be like a horror movie. The greed of the MW mines promises a dark future for Bitcoin - the worst scenario is a big, big crash... Just my two cents.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

well once you attempt to factor btc price as part of the calc it does become a more complicated model.

numbers as of 9 am eastern standard time

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   23,844,670,039

Estimated Next Difficulty:   27,142,574,550 (+13.83%)

Adjust time:   After 447 Blocks, About 2.8 days

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

Difficulty   23844670039

Estimated   26599084298 in 446 blks

about 11.55 %

Please try to remember some other reasons for diff shifting a bit.

Cooler weather is coming . So many people are buying and running more gear with that in mind.

Bitfury did open a big plant.

I still see no real incentive for the top builders of asic's to sell to us.

Mining at 1 watt a gh , 10 cents a kwatt and 500 usd a coin turns a profit .

Up to a diff of 80000 they are all good. Why sell much gear just mine

  At a diff 60746 M    a 1000 gh 1 watt per hash 10 cents a kwatt machine earns a $1.40 a day .

Any builder with that cost for power no longer has much incentive to sell gear.

And many builders have .8 watt at 6 cents a kwatt they would be earning $3.03 a day at a diff of 60746M

and 9.44 usd a day now

joust

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Quote from: DrG on August 28, 2014, 09:41:36 PM

I think OoC calculation of BTC/GH/s was based off of pool's statistics that reported how many shares had been submitted and how many bitcoins (block solves) were rewarded. So it wouldn't be based off of luck (reverse miner speed calculation) but actual miner share submissions. Unfortunately this isn't available for 1/3 of the network since solo miners and some pools don't report this info.
So if the we assume the 1/3 that is not reported is the same as that which is reported, then if the BTC/GH/s goes down 50%, we assume the network speed has network speed had doubled (irrespective of what might have happened with the actual difficulty).

Concur. You're only factor there is stale/people hanging back, but minor in the grand scheme of things.

DrG

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Quote from: joust on August 28, 2014, 11:06:06 AM

Quote from: DrG on August 28, 2014, 05:16:56 AM

You could compare the Bitcoins/GH/s as a comparison rather than the difficulty.

That is always good, but again you have 'luck' in there as the network GH/s is not an actual figure, it's just 1/[time taken to solve a block*diff] which is entirely dependent on luck.

That's the problem with difficulty, it doesn't tell you what is 'actually' out there, it tells you what the network 'thinks' is out there.

You can also skip the /GHs and look at either

https://blockchain.info/charts/miners-revenue?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
Yep it's "flat". Tells you a lot.

Or this one (number of new coins)
https://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

If you 7/14 day average that you'll find it's also surprisingly flat.

J
www.megamine.com

I think OoC calculation of BTC/GH/s was based off of pool's statistics that reported how many shares had been submitted and how many bitcoins (block solves) were rewarded. So it wouldn't be based off of luck (reverse miner speed calculation) but actual miner share submissions. Unfortunately this isn't available for 1/3 of the network since solo miners and some pools don't report this info.

So if the we assume the 1/3 that is not reported is the same as that which is reported, then if the BTC/GH/s goes down 50%, we assume the network speed has network speed had doubled (irrespective of what might have happened with the actual difficulty).

joust

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Activity: 350

Merit: 250

Quote from: DrG on August 28, 2014, 05:16:56 AM

You could compare the Bitcoins/GH/s as a comparison rather than the difficulty.

That is always good, but again you have 'luck' in there as the network GH/s is not an actual figure, it's just 1/[time taken to solve a block*diff] which is entirely dependent on luck.

That's the problem with difficulty, it doesn't tell you what is 'actually' out there, it tells you what the network 'thinks' is out there.

You can also skip the /GHs and look at either

https://blockchain.info/charts/miners-revenue?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
Yep it's "flat". Tells you a lot.

Or this one (number of new coins)
https://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

If you 7/14 day average that you'll find it's also surprisingly flat.

J
www.megamine.com

joust

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Quote from: DrG on August 28, 2014, 05:16:56 AM

You're comparing base increases in the difficulty without the effect of luck. Total network luck is not statistically available but quite of bit of info can be gleaned from OoC's weekly pool stats. The last set of 5 adjustments had bad luck, probably explaining why this last jump was over 20% (since the previous 2 jumps to that had very bad luck). The luck in May and June was slightly positive I believe.

So 12.45 may very well be more than 14.07 when weighted. You could compare the Bitcoins/GH/s as a comparison rather than the difficulty.

You can reasonably estimate luck as you have a large sample size, and certainly just using confidence interval analysis to remove any identifiable upward trend of true added hash rate is relatively straightforward.

On using CI's, of course luck variance can easily be +/-5% and there is of course nothing to say you can't have +/-100% (there is nothing that says miners couldn't solve every block in a two week period with the first calculation).

But, a bit like the lottery, your confidence interval of a taking the 4 week average of every block is around 2% for the 95% interval, and as it would follow the same distribution that gives you around -2->0->+2 extreme.

8 weeks would bring to above 1%, 12 weeks to just less than 1%.

The drop below 20% for the last 12 weeks is therefore within C99% and probably C99.5%.

Not impossible that luck hasn't done that, but if you believe that you should probably just buy lottery tickets rather than mining....

Or of course, you could pop over to Megamine where our 95% luck guarantee means you don't have to worry about it Wink

J
www.megamine.com

DrG

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Quote from: joust on August 28, 2014, 03:17:16 AM

Quote from: DrG on August 27, 2014, 05:37:56 PM

Yes, but 2 of those 4 were in the last 5 adjustments. Clearly there is an upsurge in the network growth rate. It will go up, level off growth rate, and then go up again. Depends on whether companies feel like deploying massive MW farms. Nothing home miners can do at this point.

Nothing like a bit of "statistics" to throw in the mix.

You seem to miss saying that the average of those last 5 is 12.45% but the previous 5 it was 14.07%.

14.07% is greater than 12.45% no matter how you look at it, and unless you are trying to 'spot mine' for a two week period then it's the average that sets you total earnings, not the individual changes.

J
www.megamine.com

You're comparing base increases in the difficulty without the effect of luck. Total network luck is not statistically available but quite of bit of info can be gleaned from OoC's weekly pool stats. The last set of 5 adjustments had bad luck, probably explaining why this last jump was over 20% (since the previous 2 jumps to that had very bad luck). The luck in May and June was slightly positive I believe.

So 12.45 may very well be more than 14.07 when weighted. You could compare the Bitcoins/GH/s as a comparison rather than the difficulty.

joust

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Activity: 350

Merit: 250

Quote from: DrG on August 27, 2014, 05:37:56 PM

Yes, but 2 of those 4 were in the last 5 adjustments. Clearly there is an upsurge in the network growth rate. It will go up, level off growth rate, and then go up again. Depends on whether companies feel like deploying massive MW farms. Nothing home miners can do at this point.

Nothing like a bit of "statistics" to throw in the mix.

You seem to miss saying that the average of those last 5 is 12.45% but the previous 5 it was 14.07%.

14.07% is greater than 12.45% no matter how you look at it, and unless you are trying to 'spot mine' for a two week period then it's the average that sets you total earnings, not the individual changes.

J
www.megamine.com

xstr8guy

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Glow Stick Dance!

Quote from: Lauda on August 27, 2014, 12:01:13 PM

Quote from: bozo333 on August 19, 2014, 03:25:14 PM

+20.86% You gotta know when to pull the plug....

Turned off my miners this morning...until BTC goes back over $550. Need the fiat.

More bad news:
Estimated Next Difficulty: 28,023,615,809 (+17.53%) in 14 days.

Exactly why does the small difference in price matter so much? Are you instantly selling your coins? Then this wouldn't come as a surprise to me.
Why not keep mining all the time and sell it later if you have to?
I remember the days that I got into this business, the difficulty was 7M (!) or even less. It was quite some time ago.
If I only had a 4 TH/s ASIC then. Angry

Many miners sell BTC to pay their electric bill and/or to purchase new mining gear. So of course a significant portion of earnings are immediately sold.

DrG

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Activity: 2086

Merit: 1035

Quote from: navigator on August 27, 2014, 02:50:20 PM

Only 4 out of the last 17 difficulty adjustments have been over 20%.

Yes, but 2 of those 4 were in the last 5 adjustments. Clearly there is an upsurge in the network growth rate. It will go up, level off growth rate, and then go up again. Depends on whether companies feel like deploying massive MW farms. Nothing home miners can do at this point.

navigator

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Only 4 out of the last 17 difficulty adjustments have been over 20%.

Lauda

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Terminated.

Quote from: bozo333 on August 19, 2014, 03:25:14 PM

+20.86% You gotta know when to pull the plug....

Turned off my miners this morning...until BTC goes back over $550. Need the fiat.

More bad news:
Estimated Next Difficulty: 28,023,615,809 (+17.53%) in 14 days.

Exactly why does the small difference in price matter so much? Are you instantly selling your coins? Then this wouldn't come as a surprise to me.
Why not keep mining all the time and sell it later if you have to?
I remember the days that I got into this business, the difficulty was 7M (!) or even less. It was quite some time ago.
If I only had a 4 TH/s ASIC then. Angry

joust

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Activity: 350

Merit: 250

I love the talk of "it's going to continue at >20%".

Red is a rolling 4 difficulty change average (~8 weeks), blue a rolling 8 difficulty changes (~16 weeks)

It's relatively easy to calculate on a constant BTC:$ rate where the whole network becomes unprofitable even using 20nm kit. [hint, it's not that far off].
It's also relatively easy to work out that eventually the electricity bill becomes greater than the market cap of Bitcoin. [hint, it's not that much longer]

Those two things show that either.

a) Miners will just lose money
b) BTC:$ has to change
c) Difficulty changes have to slow down even further than they already have been for the last 12 changes (24 weeks).

Of course the 'trick' is to know which, or all, of those are going to happen Wink

J

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: BTCmaster3 on August 27, 2014, 01:21:26 AM

I believe the difficulty would increase by at least 20% moving forward, too many manufacturer .

no not enough cheap power plants in the world for constant 20% growth.

barring a new magic .05 watt chip.

20 % for 24 months that can't happen . do the math

oh current predications

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   23,844,670,039

Estimated Next Difficulty:   27,061,375,299 (+13.49%)

Adjust time:   After 785 Blocks, About 5.0 days

http://bitcoincharts.com/

Difficulty   23844670039

Estimated   25580501467 in 785 blks

7.2%

So as of right now 7.2% to 13.49 %

These numbers are more in line with my thoughts on diff.

For asic builders keeping network growth between 5% - 10% is in their best interests.

Easy2Mine

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einc.io

Difficulty has been slowing down, but the percentage of your electricity bill compared to your mining earnings has increased a lot.
Back to the old days with GPU, where after the electricity fee there is only a small amount profit left.
But this time it is different, risks have become greater than in the GPU days.
If BTC stay to long at a lower level and you don't have power less than 10 cents, you can get into financial trouble quickly if you depend on mine and sell BTC to cover your electricity bill.

BTCmaster3

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I believe the difficulty would increase by at least 20% moving forward, too many manufacturer .

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: SMB-2525 on August 26, 2014, 06:56:20 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on August 23, 2014, 08:42:30 AM

it is in their best interest to limit growth under 10% and mine more then sell.

This makes sense in way. The problem is in whose interest is it for a person with a miner to not use it in order to keep the hash rate down? Every miner except the one idling a valuable asset.

None of the big players are going to slow down their deployment of their existing investments to reduce difficulty increases. The investment depreciates too rapidly. The question I have is will the changing difficulty picture make new investment in next generation mining rigs infeasible? Are they willing to gamble on increasing BTC value?

yeah If aisc's flatten out at .4 or .5 watts the incentive to build them after a lot of research and development costs is not really there.

Heck I could argue in an empty cold country like Greenland, Canada, Russia building a cheaper power plant makes more sense then building a better chip.

If you can make a 2 cent a kwatt power plant/Data Center combo for 1 cent a kwatt over 5 years…..

your power price for the next 5 years is 3 cents a kwatt. That plant would be really valuable for miners it may be easier to build cheap 20-50 mega watt Data Centers instead of building

.1watt chips.

The next king of mining maybe the super DC/hosting service. They only do the hosting and at the right price safely.

Lee from this thread is making a move at a super center

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/wwweasy2minecom-340-the-group-buy-of-antminer-s5psu-included-514758

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.8548073

but he has had a lot of issues getting it on line.

this type of mining may be what we get to do. I would hope he can get it to work well.

SMB-2525

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Quote from: philipma1957 on August 23, 2014, 08:42:30 AM

it is in their best interest to limit growth under 10% and mine more then sell.

This makes sense in way. The problem is in whose interest is it for a person with a miner to not use it in order to keep the hash rate down? Every miner except the one idling a valuable asset.

None of the big players are going to slow down their deployment of their existing investments to reduce difficulty increases. The investment depreciates too rapidly. The question I have is will the changing difficulty picture make new investment in next generation mining rigs infeasible? Are they willing to gamble on increasing BTC value?

Topic: New difficulty: 23844670038 +20.86% - Sucks! (Read 4611 times)