Topic: New difficulty: 23844670038 +20.86% - Sucks! - page 2. (Read 4652 times)
Had someone say they were going to invest $ 50k on mining because he thought mining difficulty would increase at a rate of 10% max... Hope he didn't invest hah.
About a month ago difficulty drove me to a fork in the road, I sold off about 80% of my SHA256 miners and moved to scrypt and altcoins for mining. Since then, my profits are back up to the late 2013 / early 2014 era of mining. While the future of the altcoin market is hotly debated (especially since nearly everyone trades it in for bitcoin anyway), I am nonetheless back to making money mining.
As the difficulty continues to rise, I'm more inclined to dump the remaining 20% of my bitcoin-concentrated miners.
As the difficulty continues to rise, I'm more inclined to dump the remaining 20% of my bitcoin-concentrated miners.
I turned my miners back on recently. I'm losing money on every bitcoin created, but it's nothing compared to the profits made in 2013. The higher the hash rate the stronger the network. Plus pumping it higher encourages miners not to sell in hopes of getting a better price tomorrow.
That difference between BCW and BCC is just different views on how they calculate the next change based on history.
Currently the network is solving 6 blocks in 55.3 minutes, so 8.5% quicker than it should, and the block solve rate has dropped significantly over the last few days (the grey line is under the blue line https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty).
Somewhere around 10% is therefore highly likely and 13.5% is the current trend line (dotted blue in my graph) so anything under 13.5% will continue the downward trend.
Again, 10-15% is good compared to what we were dealing with late 13 / early 14. It's far more stable and predictable now.
J
www.megamine.com
Currently the network is solving 6 blocks in 55.3 minutes, so 8.5% quicker than it should, and the block solve rate has dropped significantly over the last few days (the grey line is under the blue line https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty).
Somewhere around 10% is therefore highly likely and 13.5% is the current trend line (dotted blue in my graph) so anything under 13.5% will continue the downward trend.
Again, 10-15% is good compared to what we were dealing with late 13 / early 14. It's far more stable and predictable now.
J
www.megamine.com
Difficulty has been on a slow but sure downward trend, and spikes have been around since it started. A simple graph of BCW's raw data shows pretty much everything you need.
On a 5th polynomial trend line (the blue dahsed line) it's still downwards, and that's hardly surprising as the last 4 changes have averaged at 9.33% compared to the previous 4 before that at 17.5%, the previous 4 to that at 15.39%
Even if the next one is 15% then the 8 week comparison goes to 12.3% verses 13.74% verses 14.4%.
So on 8 weeks cycles we are still far better off than we have been for many many months now, and in %age terms, far better off from the September 13 to Dec-13 when the 8 week averages were 25/Sept:30.8%, Nov5:36.4%, 21Dec:23.4%.
But then it depends if you are looking at this long term, or 'quick buck'.
J
On a 5th polynomial trend line (the blue dahsed line) it's still downwards, and that's hardly surprising as the last 4 changes have averaged at 9.33% compared to the previous 4 before that at 17.5%, the previous 4 to that at 15.39%
Even if the next one is 15% then the 8 week comparison goes to 12.3% verses 13.74% verses 14.4%.
So on 8 weeks cycles we are still far better off than we have been for many many months now, and in %age terms, far better off from the September 13 to Dec-13 when the 8 week averages were 25/Sept:30.8%, Nov5:36.4%, 21Dec:23.4%.
But then it depends if you are looking at this long term, or 'quick buck'.
J
pretty much my conclusion that diff % will trend down not up.
and at this moment :
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
says 23,844 to 27, 456 which is 15.15%
and http://bitcoincharts.com/
has 23,844 to 25, 198 or 5.67%
These are more in line with my guess for next diff still more then 4 or 5 days out. So who really knows.
Difficulty has been on a slow but sure downward trend, and spikes have been around since it started. A simple graph of BCW's raw data shows pretty much everything you need.
On a 5th polynomial trend line (the blue dahsed line) it's still downwards, and that's hardly surprising as the last 4 changes have averaged at 9.33% compared to the previous 4 before that at 17.5%, the previous 4 to that at 15.39%
Even if the next one is 15% then the 8 week comparison goes to 12.3% verses 13.74% verses 14.4%.
So on 8 weeks cycles we are still far better off than we have been for many many months now, and in %age terms, far better off from the September 13 to Dec-13 when the 8 week averages were 25/Sept:30.8%, Nov5:36.4%, 21Dec:23.4%.
But then it depends if you are looking at this long term, or 'quick buck'.
J
On a 5th polynomial trend line (the blue dahsed line) it's still downwards, and that's hardly surprising as the last 4 changes have averaged at 9.33% compared to the previous 4 before that at 17.5%, the previous 4 to that at 15.39%
Even if the next one is 15% then the 8 week comparison goes to 12.3% verses 13.74% verses 14.4%.
So on 8 weeks cycles we are still far better off than we have been for many many months now, and in %age terms, far better off from the September 13 to Dec-13 when the 8 week averages were 25/Sept:30.8%, Nov5:36.4%, 21Dec:23.4%.
But then it depends if you are looking at this long term, or 'quick buck'.
J
One man's trash is another man's treasure.
Frankly I no longer can see why asic manufacturers would want to sell gear.
When building and mining makes a profit not selling them to miners seems like a smart option to me.
But what do I know.
Diversify risk: sales are guaranteed return. Mining is uncertain return. For example, an S3 going into production today might produce 0.76 BTC before flatlining. Selling it for 0.66 BTC and not having to put it into production yourself is a good comparative return. Frankly I no longer can see why asic manufacturers would want to sell gear.
When building and mining makes a profit not selling them to miners seems like a smart option to me.
But what do I know.
Just don't worry.
Keep mining.
One difficulty adjustment isn't gonna kill anybody. In case you haven't noticed, difficulty adjustments happen on a regular basis.
What's so different about 20% this time and these??
Nov 05 2013 510,929,738 30.70% 3,657,378 GH/s
Oct 26 2013 390,928,788 46.02% 2,798,377 GH/s
Oct 16 2013 267,731,249 41.45% 1,916,495 GH/s
Those were MUCH worse, yet people are still mining.
If one difficulty adjustment ruins your ROI, you're doing something wrong.
Keep mining.
One difficulty adjustment isn't gonna kill anybody. In case you haven't noticed, difficulty adjustments happen on a regular basis.
What's so different about 20% this time and these??
Nov 05 2013 510,929,738 30.70% 3,657,378 GH/s
Oct 26 2013 390,928,788 46.02% 2,798,377 GH/s
Oct 16 2013 267,731,249 41.45% 1,916,495 GH/s
Those were MUCH worse, yet people are still mining.
If one difficulty adjustment ruins your ROI, you're doing something wrong.
I agree some I'm not happy with 20 but it could be worse. I am lucky to have cheap electricity and space. I'm in it for the long haul with my asics. GPU/CPU is dead for me, but asic will be alive hopefully for a while.
Just don't worry.
Keep mining.
One difficulty adjustment isn't gonna kill anybody. In case you haven't noticed, difficulty adjustments happen on a regular basis.
What's so different about 20% this time and these??
Nov 05 2013 510,929,738 30.70% 3,657,378 GH/s
Oct 26 2013 390,928,788 46.02% 2,798,377 GH/s
Oct 16 2013 267,731,249 41.45% 1,916,495 GH/s
Those were MUCH worse, yet people are still mining.
If one difficulty adjustment ruins your ROI, you're doing something wrong.
Keep mining.
One difficulty adjustment isn't gonna kill anybody. In case you haven't noticed, difficulty adjustments happen on a regular basis.
What's so different about 20% this time and these??
Nov 05 2013 510,929,738 30.70% 3,657,378 GH/s
Oct 26 2013 390,928,788 46.02% 2,798,377 GH/s
Oct 16 2013 267,731,249 41.45% 1,916,495 GH/s
Those were MUCH worse, yet people are still mining.
If one difficulty adjustment ruins your ROI, you're doing something wrong.
One man's trash is another man's treasure.
Frankly I no longer can see why asic manufacturers would want to sell gear.
When building and mining makes a profit not selling them to miners seems like a smart option to me.
But what do I know.
Frankly I no longer can see why asic manufacturers would want to sell gear.
When building and mining makes a profit not selling them to miners seems like a smart option to me.
But what do I know.
Well I was wrong but I do not see the asic builders reasons for adding huge asic power.
if they can build .8 watt per hash machines they no longer need us. all they need to do is sit in a room and add hashpower very slowly.
it is in their best interest to limit growth under 10% and mine more then sell.
if they can build .8 watt per hash machines they no longer need us. all they need to do is sit in a room and add hashpower very slowly.
it is in their best interest to limit growth under 10% and mine more then sell.
Holy cow, the garbage spilled from your mouth.
Spend your btc for better education will ya?
You said it was going to be 11% last jump and it was over 20% like I said. You're guessing 13-15 this jump, I say 20-25 since it's already on track for a 23% jump.
Maybe people are underestimating the winter miners down south. Vegemite miners... I'm looking at you Organ Of Corti
Maybe people are underestimating the winter miners down south. Vegemite miners... I'm looking at you Organ Of Corti
Well I was wrong but I do not see the asic builders reasons for adding huge asic power.
if they can build .8 watt per hash machines they no longer need us. all they need to do is sit in a room and add hashpower very slowly.
it is in their best interest to limit growth under 10% and mine more then sell.
Didn't know you were down there too. Tilt the planet back this way, it's been hot as hell here in CA and I have a feeling our "winter" is going to be hotter than everybody else's summer. My new S3s don't like it.
Well it's certainly been a lot quieter around here the last few months thanks to winter but mining is no less doomed here even at cold temperatures. You said it was going to be 11% last jump and it was over 20% like I said. You're guessing 13-15 this jump, I say 20-25 since it's already on track for a 23% jump.
Maybe people are underestimating the winter miners down south. Vegemite miners... I'm looking at you Organ Of Corti
Maybe people are underestimating the winter miners down south. Vegemite miners... I'm looking at you Organ Of Corti
26.5B on the nose is my punt for the next leap.
Seeing as how I don't have OoC's weekly pool stats yet I'm going to guess a good 30 billion. I think the network has been having bad luck looking at Ghash. I can't tell from DF's stats and they passed ghash in power.
Maybe people are underestimating the winter miners down south. Vegemite miners... I'm looking at you Organ Of Corti
But our winter is all but over.Didn't know you were down there too. Tilt the planet back this way, it's been hot as hell here in CA and I have a feeling our "winter" is going to be hotter than everybody else's summer. My new S3s don't like it.
You said it was going to be 11% last jump and it was over 20% like I said. You're guessing 13-15 this jump, I say 20-25 since it's already on track for a 23% jump.
Maybe people are underestimating the winter miners down south. Vegemite miners... I'm looking at you Organ Of Corti
Maybe people are underestimating the winter miners down south. Vegemite miners... I'm looking at you Organ Of Corti
26.5B on the nose is my punt for the next leap.
0.23 exahash/sec! Will it pass 1.0 by the end of the year?
Difficulty will go to the moon!
Difficulty will go to the moon!
"To the Moon I say" with old stodgy British accent
No, not to the moon, but certainly to the upper troposphere where its slightly cooler.
I think the rumours that there will be major rollouts of data centres between now and XMAS appears to be coming true. If that is the case, then its 400PH to 700PH by XMAS as they predict.
0.23 exahash/sec! Will it pass 1.0 by the end of the year?
Difficulty will go to the moon!
Difficulty will go to the moon!
Maybe people are underestimating the winter miners down south. Vegemite miners... I'm looking at you Organ Of Corti
But our winter is all but over. when this thing stop? i mean it can not go up forever, it seems just a battle who control more hash now, distigusting
It will never stop!
Probably somewhere in the 80B mark it has to top out.
Quote
Bitcoin Difficulty: 23,844,670,039
Estimated Next Difficulty: 29,224,980,526 (+22.56%)
Adjust time: After 1487 Blocks, About 9.2 days
Hashrate(?): 194,989,563 GH/s
Estimated Next Difficulty: 29,224,980,526 (+22.56%)
Adjust time: After 1487 Blocks, About 9.2 days
Hashrate(?): 194,989,563 GH/s
of course it stops growing if .5 watts is the best an asic chip does and 4 cents a kwatt is the cheapest big power supply diff will slow or btc will jump quite a bit.
Spec threads are fun. I am pretty bullish about it all and most guy are bears here on bitcointalk spec threads.
I see growth under 20 closer to 15 maybe even 13 this time.
I also do not see huge network growth predicted. here is why. most mining is in the hands of asic builders .
the small guy with 1k to 20k in household gear has less then 20% of the network. I used to sell amazing amounts on ebay not anymore. .
The guy that is doing this with a few paychecks worth of money is spent/tapped/tired of the game.
I still see btc price growth with less diff growth. we averaged 24% for 200 days then 18% for 200 days and since june 29th the diff has been 9% this is for 55 days.
I can't see more then 10% for the next 145 days. Not at 550 or 500 usd a coin. So either diff lowers or price jumps.
You said it was going to be 11% last jump and it was over 20% like I said. You're guessing 13-15 this jump, I say 20-25 since it's already on track for a 23% jump.
Maybe people are underestimating the winter miners down south. Vegemite miners... I'm looking at you Organ Of Corti
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