Topic: New mining calculator taking difficulty development into account - page 2. (Read 10004 times)
Just wanted to say that this is the best calculator out there by far in terms of flexibility. Thank you!
we won't have an accurate idea until all the asic plug up
You're absolutely right, it is impossible to accurately predict how difficulty will develop.
My guess is that the difficulty increase predicted by exponentially extrapolating recent data is a conservative guess - it will probably be quite a bit stronger once masses of ASICs start rolling in. And then profitability calculation might look entirely different.
Onkel Paul
we won't have an accurate idea until all the asic plug up
We had a bug in the calculation of break-even considering reduction and time to deliver (which was ignored), this is fixed now.
In addition, we'll add more hardware options when we collected relevant data points...
Onkel Paul
In addition, we'll add more hardware options when we collected relevant data points...
Onkel Paul
very nice!
played with it for a while
played with it for a while
please add ASCIMINER blades and erupters
i tested Blade, after year with 1.3% daydiff increase it will be -700 usd.
very good
it will have a huge resell value after 10 years.
i will keep mine for my grandsons
i tested Blade, after year with 1.3% daydiff increase it will be -700 usd.
very good
it will have a huge resell value after 10 years.
i will keep mine for my grandsons
I would put my money on a easy 600-800 Tera hash coming online in the next 6 months or less.(As long as BFL delivers, Note: this includes other ASIC Vendors too) And that is based off know numbers, which are likely lower than the real numbers. While I'm still bullish on the exchange rate, I think we may be back to last years slow climb. Reason being the price has basically stagnated since MtGoxs Dwolla account was seized, so the big speculators have been mostly kicked out, along with a main channel for people to get USD in/out of the market.
Unfortunately, its still greatly miss-leading at this point as ASIC's have not started to flood in. And it will likely be a month or more before the Tsunami.
You're right. The difficulty raise estimation can only take into consideration previous data, but it can not anticipate future events.
You can change the "difficulty increase per day" field if to see how different values will affect the outcome. However, the actual development will most likely deviate from a purely exponential curve, and that wouild be very hard to model with a simple calculator such as this.
One additional thing that we do not yet take into account is the future development of exchange rates. If USD/BTC continues to follow a roughly exponential curve, too (give or take a few bubbles and crashes), profitability for miners looks a bit different since even diminishing BTC results might still translate into reasonable USD values. However, I did not really calculate that through, it is well possible that this effect is dwarfed by the difficulty increase.
Onkel Paul
Hey, to the OP any chance you can add the BTC calculation in as well? (BTC paid, ROI, profit .. etc...)
BTC paid is already possible (select BTC as the investment currency).
For the other fields, I will probably add currency selectors, too, with options for more currencies.
We are already thinking about a general BTC/currency converter tool to add anyway.
Onkel Paul
Hey, to the OP any chance you can add the BTC calculation in as well? (BTC paid, ROI, profit .. etc...)
Unfortunately, its still greatly miss-leading at this point as ASIC's have not started to flood in. And it will likely be a month or more before the Tsunami.
Sure there will be a flood, but will taper off too which can be somewhat absorbed by applying the average over the whole curve
yeah, this makes my avy batch 2 projections look really depressing =(
only 13k USD if I get the thing 1.5 months from now, even less due to the mentioned above in previous post...
fk, shoulda sold it for 30k when I had offers for that much.
Anyways, thanks for ur calc dude! it fucking rules =)
only 13k USD if I get the thing 1.5 months from now, even less due to the mentioned above in previous post...
fk, shoulda sold it for 30k when I had offers for that much.
Anyways, thanks for ur calc dude! it fucking rules =)
Unfortunately, its still greatly miss-leading at this point as ASIC's have not started to flood in. And it will likely be a month or more before the Tsunami.
Oops 
We're looking into it. This should not happen!
Onkel Paul
Update: Fixed now
Error establishing a database connection
We've seen the rapid increase in mining power during recent weeks, and many mining result calculators still provide estimates based on a fixed difficulty which can be quite misleading.
Here's a mining calculator that takes difficulty increases into account (it calculates estimated daily difficulty change based on the last 10 actual difficulty changes):
http://coinish.com/calc/
Try it, you'll be surprised by the results!
Onkel Paul
We're open for suggestions and improvements!
Here's a mining calculator that takes difficulty increases into account (it calculates estimated daily difficulty change based on the last 10 actual difficulty changes):
http://coinish.com/calc/
Try it, you'll be surprised by the results!
Onkel Paul
We're open for suggestions and improvements!
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