The only validity to the pool hopping exploit I can see is if you could put yourself in a position where you started off at Bitcoin Pooled Mining (BPM) and had a decent chunk into it and bailed toward the end for Bitcoin Pool (BP). From what I have read, and I could be wrong or outdated info, shares at BPM are weighted more heavily toward the end so if you had a decent stake in the current block at BPM and managed to switch over to BP at the beginning of a new block to establish a stake there too. Both blocks would have to terminate rather quickly and at about the same time for it to work and not have the shares get ate up at BPM.
It's possible, but highly unlikely considering you would have to get lucky with the timing on both sites.
They're not weighted toward the end, it's that they favor later shares. So, after a period of time, the shares are reduced in value, whether submitted at the start of the round, middle of the round, or end. After time, the shares are worth less than they were at time of submission. Likewise, if switching to bitcoinpool after a lengthly chunk of the round had already occurred, your shares would be worth a minuscule portion of the total payout, unless you had a blazingly fast mining setup.
So, essentially, you're gambling twofold. One, that you're going to be able to switch to bitcoinpool from slush's pool and have slush's pool solve the block before your shares devalue, and two, that you're going to be able to generate a large enough share base on bitcoinpool to award a payout, also assuming that they will solve the block in short time.
All of this is likewise being assumed off of the hash speed of the pool, which isn't a good figure for assuming the speed at which a pool can solve a block because of fluctuations in the user base. Calculations on average time to solve assume that you're constantly working, at a fixed average hash speed, and mining on complete and consecutive pieces of work until an answer is found. Thats not how pool mining works. You may have 10 users with a combined speed of 1Ghash/s, but there may only be 2 people hashing every nonce in the getwork while the other 8 are working off of only a portion before moving on to the next work. That fact alone will flaw the estimate of block solve time... and unless you're calculating your pool solve time estimates with fuzzy logic to incorporate the human factor, you're always going to be off.
It's a gamble, and not a mathematically proven theorem... and without thousands of solved blocks worth of "pool hopping" data, there would be no way to even have remotely enough data to actually prove it, so you're left with speculation.
Likewise, pool speeds are based off of a submissions-over-time calculations, not a live and exact representation of pool speed. I could hash at 1 Gh/s, but take 20 getworks before I found an answer. As far as the hash speed of the pool is concerned, I'm mining slowly because I submitted few shares in x-amount of time.