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Topic: New video: Why the blocksize limit keeps Bitcoin free and decentralized - page 7. (Read 15218 times)

legendary
Activity: 4690
Merit: 1276
I paid $25 to get money to Tradehill when I was buying BTC.  And it took days sometimes for the transfer to go through.

Like I mentioned, I would go to my reserve like I go to my safe deposit box.  Irregularly.  So if I am paying less than $100/yr for something with the convenience of sub 1-hr transfers and the robustness of physical gold, that's and absolute fucking gift to me.

If bitcoin could be only useful for safe deposit it will not be used at all and have no value.

Oh, you mean like gold?

sr. member
Activity: 359
Merit: 250
I paid $25 to get money to Tradehill when I was buying BTC.  And it took days sometimes for the transfer to go through.

Like I mentioned, I would go to my reserve like I go to my safe deposit box.  Irregularly.  So if I am paying less than $100/yr for something with the convenience of sub 1-hr transfers and the robustness of physical gold, that's and absolute fucking gift to me.

If bitcoin could be only useful for safe deposit it will not be used at all and have no value.
sr. member
Activity: 461
Merit: 251
Fast-tracked, one might get the system going in a year.

15 primary engineers,$300k/year = $4-5M
30 secondary engineers, pm, marketing, etc = $7-8M
Dev/test infrastructure, $3M

Throw in a 2x safety factor and we're getting close.

For ongoing operations one will need not only their own backbone (if they have one) but an expanded presence near the edge (particularly if there is competition.)  So that factors in.  Probably it would not be possible to do without support for a monetary system, so $10M might actually be a low-ball.

And I've left out legal in both efforts (and lobbying) which will add significantly.


Lol, clearly I'm being trolled.  Nicely done Tongue
legendary
Activity: 4690
Merit: 1276
$20/transaction would be worth every penny to me for a system I could trust.  I pay more and get a lot less for bank wires.

It would also produce about $80,000 revenue for finding a block which should be sufficient to keep a _LOT_ of people in the game if they could do so with inexpensive gear that they could afford to lose.  That is the kind of network I could trust (unlike Cyprus's banking system, for example.)
Where do you live? In Europe you can use SEPA transfer across borders for just 1 euro (money next day). In my country I can get transfers between banks within country for free (money same/next day) or instant for 1 euro. How $20/tx bitcoin is going to compete with that? It's fantasy.

I paid $25 to get money to Tradehill when I was buying BTC.  And it took days sometimes for the transfer to go through.

Like I mentioned, I would go to my reserve like I go to my safe deposit box.  Irregularly.  So if I am paying less than $100/yr for something with the convenience of sub 1-hr transfers and the robustness of physical gold, that's and absolute fucking gift to me.

legendary
Activity: 4690
Merit: 1276
If I already had the backbone network, hardware, and certain proprietary technology, I think such a system would be a few $10M's to develop and maybe $10M per year to operate in conjunction with other services.  Plus legal and regulatory costs which could dwarf the technical ones.  Chump-change for a corporation who was positioned to leverage the solution's underlying value.  Starting from scratch, much more than that of course.  I'll bet that VISA has much much more into their system, but they started from a different time and have a tougher row to hoe.  Probably.  Wild guesses to be honest.
I'm interested in following how you arrived at these numbers.  E.g. what are your monthly CPU, RAM, and bandwidth costs to process, say VISA levels of traffic.  We can worry about legal costs after we figure out the technical ones.

Edit: I just noticed the last sentence where you admitted your numbers to be wild guesses.  Why are you making such bold claims based on admitted wild guesses?  This is a pretty important issue, after all.

Fast-tracked, one might get the system going in a year.

15 primary engineers,$300k/year = $4-5M
30 secondary engineers, pm, marketing, etc = $7-8M
Dev/test infrastructure, $3M

Throw in a 2x safety factor and we're getting close.

For ongoing operations one will need not only their own backbone (if they have one) but an expanded presence near the edge (particularly if there is competition.)  So that factors in.  Probably it would not be possible to do without support for a monetary system, so $10M might actually be a low-ball.

And I've left out legal in both efforts (and lobbying) which will add significantly.

sr. member
Activity: 359
Merit: 250
$20/transaction would be worth every penny to me for a system I could trust.  I pay more and get a lot less for bank wires.

It would also produce about $80,000 revenue for finding a block which should be sufficient to keep a _LOT_ of people in the game if they could do so with inexpensive gear that they could afford to lose.  That is the kind of network I could trust (unlike Cyprus's banking system, for example.)
Where do you live? In Europe you can use SEPA transfer across borders for just 1 euro (money next day). In my country I can get transfers between banks within country for free (money same/next day) or instant for 1 euro. How $20/tx bitcoin is going to compete with that? It's fantasy.
legendary
Activity: 4690
Merit: 1276
Quote from: tvbcof
It leaves a solution where my 'savings' are widely distributed all over the world on a system which is trustable because it is tight enough to be operated by a myriad of small players and enthusiasts.  (That would be Bitcoin.)

Your savings would be locked in a p2p network that can't be withdrawn from without a $20 transaction fee. They would be safe from governments but not from competition that threatens to take over BTC's role as currency used for trade because of a myriad of reasons: lower transaction fees, status as 'coin of the realm' of a country in the case of fiat currencies, more merchants accepting the currency, etc.

$20/transaction would be worth every penny to me for a system I could trust.  I pay more and get a lot less for bank wires.

It would also produce about $80,000 revenue for finding a block which should be sufficient to keep a _LOT_ of people in the game if they could do so with inexpensive gear that they could afford to lose.  That is the kind of network I could trust (unlike Cyprus's banking system, for example.)

Quote
I would distribute out my spending money to various off-chain solutions which seemed the most promising to me.  Some might be attacked successfully and buried, and I might mis-judge some and they might rip me off.  Even if all of them failed, I would still have the bulk of my value in BTC.  I would probably only make several Bitcoin transactions per year.

This is just my opinion, but I think the vast majority of people would prefer a fully automated p2p network that's made up of thousands of nodes operated by enterprises, than a fully automated p2p network with hundreds of thousands of nodes operated by hobbyists, but with the disadvantage that you need to trust third party payment processors for any kind of real world use of currency.

I guess we'll see.  Right now I can and do trust a de-centralized bunch of commoners with GPU's poking out of milk crates with more value than I trust to Wells Fargo.  And for specific and distinct reasons.  The ad-hoc nature of the Bitcoin network does not bother me in the least.  Quite the opposite.  I consider it a great strength (in conjunction with the redundant nature of the design of the system of course.)

BTW, we do have a 'fully automated p2p solution'.  It's called the modern banking system.  The peers are the banks.  The clients are the plastic wielding public.  I fail to see much difference in a system you seem to envision where your vaunted 'enterprises' are the peers and the SPV users are the clients.  You think any 'enterprise' is going to stand up to the regulators or walk away from their investment?  Dream on.

If we're going to use proprietary networks (and they have to be networks to avoid expensive on-chain transactions) to transfer bitcoin credit, instead of bitcoin itself around, we can just use banks, or some successor to e-gold or something.

A bitcoin economy where you are reliant on using bitcoin-credit controlled by third parties is very similar to modern banking, and would probably have almost all of the same shortcomings.

Not hardly.  I see the off-chain solutions as being every bit as ad-hoc as the transfer nodes and miners (if need be.)  Every time one gets a mallet on the head, three more pop up out of a gopher-hole somewhere else in the world.  That, my friend, is resilience.

Quote
This contrasts sharply with the vision of Bitcoin as a monolithic one-world currency solution which only large and well connected entities can profitably operate.  In that case a failure means the loss of all of my value*.

Your vision requires large payment processors that are connected, in the classical banking sense of having trust-based credit relationships amongst each other, to form a proprietary network that allows you to actually use bitcoin in every day trade.

You simply could not be more wrong about this.

Bitcoin as a global scale network allowing millions of on-chain transactions per day, or as you put it, a 'monolithic one-world currency solution', was in fact the goal Satoshi Nakamoto set out for it:

http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/msg09964.html

Quote
At first, most users would run network nodes, but as the network grows beyond a certain point, it would be left more and more to specialists with server farms of specialized hardware.  A server farm would only need to have one node on the network and the rest of the LAN connects with that one node.

The bandwidth might not be as prohibitive as you think.  A typical transaction would be about 400 bytes (ECC is nicely compact).  Each transaction has to be broadcast twice, so lets say 1KB per transaction.  Visa processed 37 billion transactions in FY2008, or an average of 100 million transactions per day.  That many transactions would take 100GB of bandwidth, or the size of 12 DVD or 2 HD quality movies, or about $18 worth of bandwidth at current prices.

If the network were to get that big, it would take several years, and by then, sending 2 HD movies over the Internet would probably not seem like a big deal.  

Limiting Bitcoin to 7 tps in my opinion virtually guarantees it will never have significant impact, because I believe people will opt for government-regulated networks, or alternative blockchains, if Bitcoin, as a p2p network loses its transaction fee advantage.

The 1 MB cap was put in place as a temporary measure, until a better way to control transaction spam was found. Trying to make the limit permanent is trying to change the vision of Bitcoin as originally conceived.

Well, he/they also have some half-baked privacy and internal auction stuff floating around in the code.  It's not like the guy was Jesus or something.  Ultimately the user's will decide although the actual developers will have a big influence in assisting those decisions.

sr. member
Activity: 461
Merit: 251
Quote from: tvbcof
It leaves a solution where my 'savings' are widely distributed all over the world on a system which is trustable because it is tight enough to be operated by a myriad of small players and enthusiasts.  (That would be Bitcoin.)

Your savings would be locked in a p2p network that can't be withdrawn from without a $20 transaction fee.
The blockchain would also appear to me in this case to be relatively easily jammed.  What I mean is, say $20 is the upper limit on what people are willing to pay to transact over the blockchain.  With a 1MB block size limit, that's roughly 2000 transactions per block, or 288,000 transactions per day.  So it would cost roughly $5.76M to jam the blockchain for a day.  How many days could Bitcoin withstand such an attack before confidence is lost?  Also keep in mind that this number is fixed with the block size, so this can quickly become a cheap attack relative to the benefit of its success as the number of Bitcoin users grows.

Edit: In fact, I'm betting even just a credible threat to do this at random times would suffice to make Bitcoin appear too unreliable to more than a few businesses.
sr. member
Activity: 461
Merit: 251
If I already had the backbone network, hardware, and certain proprietary technology, I think such a system would be a few $10M's to develop and maybe $10M per year to operate in conjunction with other services.  Plus legal and regulatory costs which could dwarf the technical ones.  Chump-change for a corporation who was positioned to leverage the solution's underlying value.  Starting from scratch, much more than that of course.  I'll bet that VISA has much much more into their system, but they started from a different time and have a tougher row to hoe.  Probably.  Wild guesses to be honest.
I'm interested in following how you arrived at these numbers.  E.g. what are your monthly CPU, RAM, and bandwidth costs to process, say VISA levels of traffic.  We can worry about legal costs after we figure out the technical ones.

Edit: I just noticed the last sentence where you admitted your numbers to be wild guesses.  Why are you making such bold claims based on admitted wild guesses?  This is a pretty important issue, after all.
legendary
Activity: 4690
Merit: 1276

I just did a quick calc and if 1/2 the people in the world did 1 transaction per day with a single solution, I get around 50,000 operations per second.

Someone at the conference (I heard, but did not see) mentioned that the number of cell phones vs. the number of bank accounts is about 5/1.  So, if Bitcoin became popular, and the movement toward more capable phones proceeds, it would likely result in a pretty large deluge of traffic.

I became concerned about scalability when reading the document on the main Bitcoin.org wiki.  Later (recently) I heard Dan Kaminsky refer to it as "the funniest document in the history of software engineering."  Which I consider one of the funniest comments in the history of software engineering.  And one of the saddest.

Now, I don't doubt that large corporations (who I can now name but will refrain from doing so anyway) can process that kind of data and much more.  And the intelligence information they could obtain in doing so would vastly exceed the cost of operating the system.  But it's not the Bitcoin which attracted me several years ago.  It is, in fact, the exact opposite.


It seems like you got a bit distracted while explaining your estimate of the operating cost...

If I already had the backbone network, hardware, and certain proprietary technology, I think such a system would be a few $10M's to develop and maybe $10M per year to operate in conjunction with other services.  Plus legal and regulatory costs which could dwarf the technical ones.  Chump-change for a corporation who was positioned to leverage the solution's underlying value.  Starting from scratch, much more than that of course.  I'll bet that VISA has much much more into their system, but they started from a different time and have a tougher row to hoe.  Probably.  Wild guesses to be honest.

hero member
Activity: 772
Merit: 501
Quote from: tvbcof
It leaves a solution where my 'savings' are widely distributed all over the world on a system which is trustable because it is tight enough to be operated by a myriad of small players and enthusiasts.  (That would be Bitcoin.)

Your savings would be locked in a p2p network that can't be withdrawn from without a $20 transaction fee. They would be safe from governments but not from competition that threatens to take over BTC's role as currency used for trade because of a myriad of reasons: lower transaction fees, status as 'coin of the realm' of a country in the case of fiat currencies, more merchants accepting the currency, etc.

Quote
I would distribute out my spending money to various off-chain solutions which seemed the most promising to me.  Some might be attacked successfully and buried, and I might mis-judge some and they might rip me off.  Even if all of them failed, I would still have the bulk of my value in BTC.  I would probably only make several Bitcoin transactions per year.

This is just my opinion, but I think the vast majority of people would prefer a fully automated p2p network that's made up of thousands of nodes operated by enterprises, than a fully automated p2p network with hundreds of thousands of nodes operated by hobbyists, but with the disadvantage that you need to trust third party payment processors for any kind of real world use of currency.

If we're going to use proprietary networks (and they have to be networks to avoid expensive on-chain transactions) to transfer bitcoin credit, instead of bitcoin itself around, we can just use banks, or some successor to e-gold or something.

A bitcoin economy where you are reliant on using bitcoin-credit controlled by third parties is very similar to modern banking, and would probably have almost all of the same shortcomings.

Quote
This contrasts sharply with the vision of Bitcoin as a monolithic one-world currency solution which only large and well connected entities can profitably operate.  In that case a failure means the loss of all of my value*.

Your vision requires large payment processors that are connected, in the classical banking sense of having trust-based credit relationships amongst each other, to form a proprietary network that allows you to actually use bitcoin in every day trade.

Bitcoin as a global scale network allowing millions of on-chain transactions per day, or as you put it, a 'monolithic one-world currency solution', was in fact the goal Satoshi Nakamoto set out for it:

http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/msg09964.html

Quote
At first, most users would run network nodes, but as the network grows beyond a certain point, it would be left more and more to specialists with server farms of specialized hardware.  A server farm would only need to have one node on the network and the rest of the LAN connects with that one node.

The bandwidth might not be as prohibitive as you think.  A typical transaction would be about 400 bytes (ECC is nicely compact).  Each transaction has to be broadcast twice, so lets say 1KB per transaction.  Visa processed 37 billion transactions in FY2008, or an average of 100 million transactions per day.  That many transactions would take 100GB of bandwidth, or the size of 12 DVD or 2 HD quality movies, or about $18 worth of bandwidth at current prices.

If the network were to get that big, it would take several years, and by then, sending 2 HD movies over the Internet would probably not seem like a big deal.  

Limiting Bitcoin to 7 tps in my opinion virtually guarantees it will never have significant impact, because I believe people will opt for government-regulated networks, or alternative blockchains, if Bitcoin, as a p2p network, loses its transaction fee advantage.

The 1 MB cap was put in place as a temporary measure, until a better way to control transaction spam was found. Trying to make the limit permanent is trying to change the vision of Bitcoin as originally conceived.
sr. member
Activity: 461
Merit: 251
Focusing on the operating cost is wrong. The issue is the availability of anonymous bandwidth and that does not scale with technology. Unless you can mine anonymously the government has control over you, and therefor Bitcoin, and Bitcoin is not really decentralized.
So we wouldn't have to fear that it'd require an expensive data center to run a node?

I just did a quick calc and if 1/2 the people in the world did 1 transaction per day with a single solution, I get around 50,000 operations per second.

Someone at the conference (I heard, but did not see) mentioned that the number of cell phones vs. the number of bank accounts is about 5/1.  So, if Bitcoin became popular, and the movement toward more capable phones proceeds, it would likely result in a pretty large deluge of traffic.

I became concerned about scalability when reading the document on the main Bitcoin.org wiki.  Later (recently) I heard Dan Kaminsky refer to it as "the funniest document in the history of software engineering."  Which I consider one of the funniest comments in the history of software engineering.  And one of the saddest.

Now, I don't doubt that large corporations (who I can now name but will refrain from doing so anyway) can process that kind of data and much more.  And the intelligence information they could obtain in doing so would vastly exceed the cost of operating the system.  But it's not the Bitcoin which attracted me several years ago.  It is, in fact, the exact opposite.


It seems like you got a bit distracted while explaining your estimate of the operating cost...
legendary
Activity: 4690
Merit: 1276
This contrasts sharply with the vision of Bitcoin as a monolithic one-world currency solution which only large and well connected entities can profitably operate.
I keep hearing this statement, but never any numbers with it to back it up.  Would you mind sharing how you estimated this operating cost?

I just did a quick calc and if 1/2 the people in the world did 1 transaction per day with a single solution, I get around 50,000 operations per second.

Someone at the conference (I heard, but did not see) mentioned that the number of cell phones vs. the number of bank accounts is about 5/1.  So, if Bitcoin became popular, and the movement toward more capable phones proceeds, it would likely result in a pretty large deluge of traffic.

I became concerned about scalability when reading the document on the main Bitcoin.org wiki.  Later (recently) I heard Dan Kaminsky refer to it as "the funniest document in the history of software engineering."  Which I consider one of the funniest comments in the history of software engineering.  And one of the saddest.

Now, I don't doubt that large corporations (who I can now name but will refrain from doing so anyway) can process that kind of data and much more.  And the intelligence information they could obtain in doing so would vastly exceed the cost of operating the system.  But it's not the Bitcoin which attracted me several years ago.  It is, in fact, the exact opposite.

member
Activity: 70
Merit: 18
This contrasts sharply with the vision of Bitcoin as a monolithic one-world currency solution which only large and well connected entities can profitably operate.
I keep hearing this statement, but never any numbers with it to back it up.  Would you mind sharing how you estimated this operating cost?

Focusing on the operating cost is wrong. The issue is the availability of anonymous bandwidth and that does not scale with technology. Unless you can mine anonymously the government has control over you, and therefor Bitcoin, and Bitcoin is not really decentralized.

But some people are happy with Bitcoin being ultimately under government control. That is why this is a political issue rather than a technical one, as Peter Todd keeps on pointing out.
sr. member
Activity: 461
Merit: 251
This contrasts sharply with the vision of Bitcoin as a monolithic one-world currency solution which only large and well connected entities can profitably operate.
I keep hearing this statement, but never any numbers with it to back it up.  Would you mind sharing how you estimated this operating cost?
legendary
Activity: 4690
Merit: 1276
Like I've said before, a healthy and active solution of off-chain activity would provide the necessary user numbers to give the protection you (supposedly) seek.  Any regulatory attacks are going to be a broad enough brushes to impact all such economic activity.  You seemed to have no answer for that.

What "healthy and active solution of off-chain activity"? All off-chain activity occurs on centralized third party payment processors that you have to trust your coins with. ...


Wrong.

It leaves a solution where my 'savings' are widely distributed all over the world on a system which is trustable because it is tight enough to be operated by a myriad of small players and enthusiasts.  (That would be Bitcoin.)

I would distribute out my spending money to various off-chain solutions which seemed the most promising to me.  Some might be attacked successfully and buried, and I might mis-judge some and they might rip me off.  Even if all of them failed, I would still have the bulk of my value in BTC.  I would probably only make several Bitcoin transactions per year.

This contrasts sharply with the vision of Bitcoin as a monolithic one-world currency solution which only large and well connected entities can profitably operate.  In that case a failure means the loss of all of my value*.

(*) Actually, my value is still in the block-chain and that, huge though it may be, would very possibly form the basis for value follow-on solutions, but the interim period would be protracted, stressful, and fraught with questions.  I'd rather not have to see it.

legendary
Activity: 4690
Merit: 1276

Thx for the reminder JD.  I sent a few more.

I was going to donate around .3 to someone, but I cannot for the life of me remember who.

I made a slight contribution to Jon Matonis while I was at it.  Not enough to warrant a dick sucking though...at least not enough to get a solid.

Ah...right.  Armory!  I don't actually use it, but they gave me a shirt at the 2013 conference.

member
Activity: 70
Merit: 18
I finally got a chance to see your new video. It's solid professional work, you have done a great job. You'll soon get another 2.5BTC from me by the same method I used before. (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1968200)

Nice to see that big 10BTC donation you got, and from an address with 125BTC! It really says something how many of the donations you have been getting all come from addresses with large balances of Bitcoins, about 250BTC and counting right now. It just goes to show how the people most heavily invested in Bitcoins are the ones with the most to lose from centralization and regulation.

Keep up the fight.
legendary
Activity: 1120
Merit: 1152
Could the government shutdown your "off-chain solution"?

If yes, forget it.

If no, why?

There do exist such off-chain solutions that the government can't shutdown; keep in mind the Silk Road is a very simple off-chain transaction system and it has high resistance to government shutdown. With good auditing and punishment for fraud you can make off-chain systems where the operators can be totally anonymous, yet you can still trust them to hold some Bitcoins on your behalf. It's similar to how miners are anonymous to you, yet the incentives in the Bitcoin system are such that a 51% majority of them will not attack Bitcoin.

Don't forget that moving a lot of tx volume to off-chain systems makes it much harder for governments, indeed anyone, to track where money is flowing in the blockchain simply because that information is only available from a whole host of third-parties, or doesn't exist at all in the case of provably anonymous chuam tokens. Unless the people you are up against are arguing that Bitcoin needs to be shutdown because they can't track transactions, having less public information about where money is flowing gives fewer examples of dodgy transactions to point too. For instance right now due to how SatoshiDice bets are completely public it's easy for anyone to say the majority of Bitcoin tx volume is gambling, if SatoshiDice was using off-chain it'd be much harder to prove that even if you could get a list of addresses they were using.
legendary
Activity: 1792
Merit: 1111
Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZp7UGgBR0I

Website: http://keepbitcoinfree.org/

Pretty simple right now, but this is the beginning. For those of you at the 2013 conference, I'll be giving a presentation about off-chain transactions on Saturday as part of the tech stream.

Could the government shutdown your "off-chain solution"?

If yes, forget it.

If no, why?
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