Topic: Newest Diff thread April 19th to May 1st-Closed for picks!! - page 4. (Read 7493 times)

While I won't complain about an increase in BTC price, a rise from $218 to $230 won't really have any significant effect on mining operations I don't believe. I don't think there are Petahash's sitting on the sidelines just waiting for a $15 bump in BTC price. Now $300 will motivate some folks to restart operations in my opinion.

I don't know what is causing it but I'm sure happy to see it go up so quick.  A lot nicer then the 218 or so last night.

Bitwisdom shows a negative right now:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,355,261,252 (-0.54%)
Adjust time:    After 824 Blocks, About 5.7 days

So slowing down on power possibly and price up so looking good.

I would think by now that most of the effects of the last adjustment period are washed out of the bitcoinwisdom projection. Just looking at the graph, it really looks like hash rate has been more or less flat for a week or more. Yes it oscillates, but it really doesn't seem to be showing any significant growth like it did last year. It could easily be a "coin toss" in terms of plus or minus adjustment this time around.

Unfortunately it also appears that the Westhash "gravy train" of overpriced rentals is really gone.

Bitcoinwisdom: $238
Coinbase: $230
Bitstamp: $229

Still moving up.

when the network grows like mad variance  is harder to see or determine.  since upswings could be growth and or variance.

when the network is flat variance is easier to see since up  swings   are most likely variance due to no real growth.

I mean total hash rate but could be network difficulty since its just a(n approximate) conversion of it.

Anyway, I said 1000x for visualisation purposes. I also didnt say in a near future. My purpose is to understand how the variance behaves when network hash rate grows enourmously than todays.

Do you mean network difficulty, or the total hash rate of the network?  I don't expect we'll see either grow 1000 fold again, not without completely new mining technology or bitcoin value going through the roof; neither of which are sure things..

Which price were you quoting? From Bitcoinwisdom? It's now 223 there, 222 on Coinbase, and 221 on Bitstamp. Seems to be moving up it seems, so that probably makes a difficulty decrease less likely.

Do you think as network hash increase does also variance increase? Or are they totally independent of each other?

Im asking this because Im curious about that in the future whether we can see that kind of variance or not when network hash is 1000x of current one.

Regards...

I believe this is up to date.

 http://btc.blockr.io/charts

145  Apr 19th  half old adjustment
155  Apr  20th
157  Apr   21st
149  Apr   22nd  
131  Apr   23rd   +17 blocks is real time number  
124  Apr   24th    -3   blocks is a real time number at the end of the 24th
159  Apr   25th   +22 blocks
151  Apr   26th   +29 blocks

so we made 1142 blocks and should be at 1113  so we are +2.60% at the moment.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  says  (-0.19%)   but they use some of the last adjustment to get that guess.

 We had some very low days the 23rd and 24th were very low and the 21st and 25th were very high.  this pattern looks like variance more then a trend. but who knows.

And morning it has actually went down slightly.  It appear in my opinion we will get a small gain during this difficulty.  Bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,466,165,162 (-0.30%)
Adjust time:    After 891 Blocks, About 6.2 days

Price is down a little more at 217.  So it's slipping down faster then I like seeing.

We just keep going up slowly.  Which is not a bad thing, it's looking like a small increase during this change.  Possibly smaller then what the negative was on last one.  So still could be considered very good if that happens.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,889,720,703 (+0.59%)
Adjust time:    After 956 Blocks, About 6.5 days

Price hoovering around 218.  So we can hope it goes back up.

yeah the way the swings have been it could  which would help interest next adjustment.  price is pretty low.

good luck to all!

let it be -2.51%!!!

 

Thanks to suchmoon for  prize money.   As pointed out we are dropping in price and maybe we drop in rate again.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

Yesterday we popped 159 blocks  that is a lot of blocks. most in a month.

day before that 124   big swings

Looks good to me, and yes, it's BTC0.2 this time.

Okay I am going to close this for picks  we are a bit past the 1000 block mark and also past 11:59am eastern standard time.
Below are final picks:  Suchmoon has final say on the contest since he funds it.  we have a 0.1+ 0.1 = 0.2 prize due to roll over 


 with 0.00 at bonus of +0.1   since it is just 1 number not the range like the others.

-2.26 to -2.50% Bittings
-2.01 to -2.25% RoadStress
-1.76 to -2.00% Lboss
-1.51 to -1.75% RubyPaul1
-1.26 to -1.50% gallery2000
-1.01 to -1.25% philipma1957
-0.76 to  -1.00% Jamphone
-0.50 to -0.75%  eretron
-0.26 to -0.50% shapeshift
-0.01 to -0.25% Amph

0.00   EMIF------------------------------- gets 0.10 rollover + 0.10 standard  + 0.10 bonus  = 0.30  as it is the hardest to pick

+0.01 to 0.25% zebedee
+0.26 to 0.50% crazyivan
+0.51 to 0.75% hellfrozenow
+0.76 to 1.00% coinits
+1.01 to 1.25% mavericklm
+1.26 to 1.50% SunnyIgor
+1.51 to 1.75% Korbman
+1.76 to 2.00% HerbPean
+2.01 to 2.25% armedmilitia
+2.26 to 2.50% notlist3d
+2.51 to 2.75% davejh
+2.76 to 3.00% tertius993
+3.01 to 3.25% Last of the V8s
+3.26 to 3.50% edonkey
+3.51 to 3.75% tlhIlwI
+3.76 to 4.00% ezeminer
+4.01 to 4.25% Mikestang
+4.26 to 4.50% EternalWingsofGod  
+4.51 to 4.75% alh
+4.76 to 5.00% Kexkey                  
+5.01 to 5.25% Quickseller
+5.26 to 5.50% Biodom
+5.51 to 5.75% reactive4ce


Note it is a solid block from [+5.51 to 5.75%]   downward to [ -2.26 to -2.50%]  good luck to all of us.  but we could use coins going up not down.  they are at 215 usd. 

I just purchased 2 at coinbase.

Morning update it appears bitwisdom shows hash slowly moving up:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,862,419,697 (+0.53%)
Adjust time:    After 1002 Blocks, About 6.8 days

Price diving even farther down at 214.  So not what we wanted to see with price.

About 1 hour to go for picks!

2 more hours on deadline I will put you in.


you are in good luck!.