Topic: Next Bitcoin Bull Run Will Be ‘Dramatically Different’ - page 4. (Read 851 times)

I agree too

Bitcoin Bull run will be completely different this time. Like 2017 it won't shoot to a new all time high straight away but this time it will go step by step. I accept it to reach till 25k by the end of this year or early next year.

I think adoption is less about Bitcoin's fundamental improvements and more about people's changing perceptions about the value of money.


I definitely see no end in sight as far as volatility goes, and until mass adoption actually occurs, I see no end to these speculative market cycles either. However, I think it's important to note that Bitcoin's price is a direct reflection of adoption. So if that mass adoption scenario occurs, we should expect the resulting price increase to greatly surpass the magnitude of past cycles.

Yeah that is probably what they mean. I don't see a reason to expect it though. I actually thought at the end of 2017 we were at that point (which is why I didn't sell around $20k haha) and I thought after a decent correction the price would just keep going up as we reached the backbone of that S-curve. But after I witnessed yet another normal full blown bitcoin crash I realized that will just keep happening unless we get to the point where use and spending of Bitcoin is way simpler than it was in 2017 or than it is now, since it's roughly the same still.

As long as the driving thesis behind owning bitcoin by the populace is to make money - whether from a store of value, speculative trading, economic hedge, etc point of view - we're going to continue to see these booms where the market gets way overbought, followed by busts in which a lot of the new people run away and don't return for a few years. If Bitcoin ever becomes a great spendable currency then we could see this full blown mass adoption you speak of, where people adopt bitcoin not mostly to make money but to bank themselves and send money anywhere cheaply and quickly. Quite frankly this requires scaling solutions that I don't yet see, much less volatile price, and more friendly tax rules (at least in some places like the US where you're expected to figure out capital gains taxes on every purchase you make with Bitcoin which is essentially impossible). Even just the basic holding of bitcoin in a cold wallet versus a hot wallet makes it hard and complicated to use. There can be solutions to all these roadblocks, but it might be a bunch of years until they all come to pass, if they ever do. In the meantime I expect the same normal boom/bust cycle to continue. Certainly there is nothing I see going on right now that suggests anything is going to be different about the market right now other than institutional investment dipping a foot into the market instead of a little toe, but that's not really different, it's just more money as happens in each successive cycle.

Though I guess a game changer, simply due to magnitude, would be if suddenly hedge funds and whatnot decided they need like 10% of their managed money in Bitcoin to hedge against QE and inflation and just horribly managed finances by essentially all nations - so basically if Wall St turned Bitcoin into a Gold in terms of valuing it as a major global reserve that of big monied interests. Something to hold long term, not just trade of invest in short term during the upside of a market cycle. The sheer magnitude of the amount of money that would flow in would be game changing, and this could be quicker than getting actual global adoption of bitcoin as a currency, but still I see nothing suggesting institutional investors are going to do anything more than dip one foot into the market during this cycle. Maybe 5 or 10 years from now a firm with the sort of dollar value Grayscale has right now in Bitcoin will be considered a little fish instead of THE major institutional player in the game, but right now we're a long way from that.


As a side note, and as antithetical as it is to the whole purpose of Bitcoin, I think the way we actually get to adoption of Bitcoin as a currency rather than a money making game by the populace is third party custody solutions. Unless something about bitcoin is changed so that hot wallets are safe and you don't need a whole complex security routine to secure your money, I just don't see the average person trying to figure that all out. This is why despite all the drop Coinbase social media campaigns and the no keys no bitcoin campaigns or whatever it is, the average person who wants to get Bitcoin exposure is just gonna go to Coinbase cuz it is easy and they don't have to worry about learning complicated details of how bitcoin is different than having money in a bank. But if custody companies and banks themselves have Venmo-like apps for bitcoin where they handle the security and the user doesn't even have to think about wallets and keys and addresses and whatnot, that's a huge win for usage. Meanwhile those that really want to take advantage of the self banking revolutionary features of Bitcoin can do that. Also third party custody means these companies can just occasionally pass bitcoin around or store the changes just in their database, thus greatly increasing the "usage" of bitcoin without filling up blocks, thus massively scaling bitcoin usage without having to wait for actual protocol scaling solutions that may or may not ever come. I think there is a future world where those who want Bitcoin for its security and features use it for that, while those that just want it to spend easily anywhere in the world while also getting the long term price appreciation out of it can also do that without ever having to worry about the details of bitcoin security. But until we get to this world, I don't see things being different this time as the Winkle-twins suggest. Bigger as always sure, but no different. I expect a big boom to high 5 digits, perhaps even briefly going over $100k, and then a standard year or so long crash back to i dunno like $20k or something - business as usual.

I don't know exactly what the Winklevii have in mind, but I imagine it has to do with the idea of mass or exponential adoption.

For years, most of us have been thinking of these periodic bubbles as plots along some logarithmic curve, where the cycles get smaller and smaller in magnitude over time. Something like this:



Personally I don't think that model reflects what would happen in a full blown mass adoption and institutional adoption scenario. The chart above may in fact be compressed inside the "early adopter" phase of this chart:



In other words, the real exponential gains haven't even begun yet.

Now, it's not guaranteed to be the next cycle. In fact, it's not guaranteed at all. But that's why it could be dramatically different than previous bubbles.

I don't think I'd say next bull run will be dramatically different than the last one. I mean sure there is more infrastructure, there might be more quality projects compared to the ICOs, there is the start of institutional investment, and so on, but you expect everything to improve from one bull run to the next. Just saying everything is bigger doesn't make it dramatically different, that is just what you would expect from the next bull run.

Instead of ICO boom it looks like we are at the start of DeFi boom. Bitcoin as always will power the whole market as the principle player, but ETH's projects will drive lots of new people in, and other random altcoins will rise just from people pumping. Pretty much the same as last cycle. Sure price might go to $100k or close to it, but that isn't dramatically different, because of course each successive bull run the price is gonna be a lot higher than the previous one.

So I don't really see what they mean by dramatically different. It's not like Bitcoin is gonna suddenly be used as currency by tens of millions of people and that drives the bull run. Bull run looks to be similar to the last just much larger as one would of course expect.

that is not at all true.
for starters every shitcoin that was created has been copying another concept and even coins that are less shitty have been copying bitcoin concept. and that is the case with every single altcoin out there. and there is no law against that because the "concept" is released under MIT license and there is no "company".

as for investors, they don't give a rat's ass about the project being good. all they have ever cared about was making profit, that is why we always see shitcoins with biggest pump and dumps are the most popular even if they were clear scams. evidence is the top 10 altcoins!

they need to create a new concept because old concepts were already given and owned by the other companies and its against the law if they copy it but pump and dump coins are here and they will not dissapear because some people and scammers can both benefit to it  .

 thats why not all investors support only good projects .  the difference that i feel so far is that bull run now is smaller compare to bull run on 2017

Buyers will be absolutely delighted to relieve long time holders of their coins who are looking for an exit for what they feel is a decent price. They've got to come from somewhere and there won't be very many people willing to let go of them if they've been here for this long.

We can talk about piddly bubbles when it is reaching saturation and anyone who ever will own it does own it. Until then everyone here should forget about their own expectations. They will be steamrollered by all those millions and billions who are not here yet. They're the ones who define the future, not us, and they outnumber us to a ludicrous extent.

People need to step outside themselves and try to conceive of the sheer scale of what's beyond the little bone box they live in. It's a whole lot bigger than many are capable of conceiving. Everyone should do their best to manage it as it could be the difference between blowing it or winning to face melting extent.

They have a reason to exaggerate their prediction as bitcoin is always surprising.
Did we though that bitcoin will reach $20,000 back then? Nope, right>

This time, since the ATH was around $20,000, then it's good to expect a higher price, even $50,000 or $100,000 is possible base on the percentage of increase of bitcoin in the past, but of course, it might be too much for us but I believe a new ATH will make this market have a crazy run again.


That's a good prediction, but I will tell you, your prediction could also be exaggerated for others too. 

I don't expect that having exponential capital and high-quality project this year ( and for the incoming) this year. I believe that these two brothers are acting deliberately different and see only the opposite of the real scenario that we have today. We are not looking into perfection and sees what it really happens in the coming days but actually we can feel what really happening now and it absolutely that 2020 is far different from what 2017 has.

I respect their speculation but neither agrees with them because, in the first place, I base on the real sentiment not my imagination.

I am not entirely sure it would be dramatically different, I am suspecting something that along the lines of 2017 where it reached 20k and dropped, this time it could reach higher levels, maybe peak around at 30k levels but it would be basically the same and not too much change, when you say dramatically people think about 100k and more and I do not think that we will reach those levels since they are too much.

Obviously speaking the dramatic change could come from going down, last time we peaked at 20k the price went as low as 3.5k at one point, I hope that next time we broke our ATH, the price will not fall that much which would be the dramatic change if you accept it, but that doesn't mean that the upside is higher, it just means the lowside is higher or at least would be.

quick question: how many bitcoins do these twins have? 

The price went up to $11,200 and we already have all analysts and celebrities from the cryptocurrency world coming out of their hole where they were hiding to make positive comments about bitcoin, but when the price was falling they made negative comments. my opinion is that this time I have to agree with him, because there were really many things that matured in this market, but unfortunately the question of price manipulation made by whales is still a big problem and nobody can guarantee that this big price increase that bitcoin had in the last days is not related to the pump that ETH is having

I don't think how it becomes realistic in a way that the market trends looks so different from what they say. 2017 is away far from what it happens today, not this year 2020 could we compared of and obviously the market show better that year than of today. We are flooded with shit/fake projects that it makes it harder to move forward because of the trust issues. And this they say good-quality project? maybe they are mistaken and of course not.

This Winklevoss Twin thinks alway positive, they are so optimistic to think that this year will be gratefull than the past Bullrun. But somehow, it is really hard to take that kind of optimism since we already know the current market situation we have today.

Yeah, and those who now reside in the camps either side of Bitcoin are a lot more stronger in their convictions too. Combine that with the level of knowledge and awareness (doesn't matter right or wrong) from 2017 to 2020, to the previous bull runs, and it's impossible to ignore that people really do know about it today, even if not for the accurate information. Kids talk about it now, shop people, it's in the news. Doesn't matter they're generally wrong or not quite spot on, they're aware of it and there's a million ways now to buy Bitcoin (again, doesn't matter if they're actually owning it with wallets or using investment apps), so if they're wanting in, they're either already in or en route.

There isn't going to be as much blue ocean (term I hear a lot now) as in the past.

But hey, I'll be the first to crack a smile if I'm dead wrong.

The nature of those investors are no longer the same, most of them are doing deeper research before making any investment, it's a good sign that being matured and looking for better reason before taking any participation to any projects is very in need.

Those who failed to  do DYOR are mostly being moved by fomos forgetting the essentials of having a well established foundation before taking their decision.

With new breed of investors the cycle might be more different than what happened last 2017, conventional traders are more into reasons and not just pure speculations, better to make yourself well prepared working with this new people around this market.

You’re making a point here, that’s why everything basically all about demand and supply. Like you have said if these people have a target of $25,000 and $20,000, that means that once we approach that level and many starts to sell their coins in the market, we are definitely going to start falling back to a low price. Although I don’t think that’s going to happen, because I’m convinced that majority of the people here are looking forward to a price that is more than that. I really can’t wait to see the price go really high, more than what we are seeing now.

Awareness isn't what matters to price. What matters is adoption (buying) and the collective refusal to sell.


As usual, old timers will probably sell way too early and newcomers will buy high and baghold themselves into deep losses.

Very few people exit at the top.


I've never heard it used to justify slow adoption, but it stands to reason that if a curve is exponential, the rate of change during earlier periods would be slower than later periods. That's the nature of exponential increases.

There is no evidence Bitcoin is following an S-curve, no, but in all fairness that can only be known in hindsight, after the exponential increase has already occurred.

There is also no evidence BTC will be capped at $30K-$40K in the next bull market.

There's a big possibilities that this statement from the Twin would happen along the way, with the exposures of bitcoin being
means for transacting over borders and those who uses their bitcoin online, those successful transaction will build strong bonds between
senders and receivers, more money to play inside the market and more actual businesses to adopt this chain the more bigger t
he chance to expect more value from this cryptocurrency.

Very much different because we have new concepts that are not around in 2017, and coins that are in the market are real projects there are no pump and dump coins anymore that are on top of the market, and investors are more discerning now more than ever  they only support projects that has potential for future development not to mention the many industries and institution around it now.

If we talk about adoption, from 2017 to the present, I guess we can say that there's a lot of improvement already. D

DeFi was not their in 2017 as ICO was the favorites, but now it was hype and the market is currently bullish, and not only that, there's a lot more that would contribute for bitcoin to pump, however, it's also possible that bitcoin will not break its new ATH but we will be seeing a stronger market where price are more stable so it's less likely to see the same scenario in 2018 which is a consistent dump throughout the year.

The growth could be something that is slowly but surely, this wouldn't cause panic as more big investors are willing to hold and will not play on the price unlike what the whales are doing.