Topic: NFTs in the Bitcoin blockchain - Ordinal Theory - page 16. (Read 9195 times)

It's you who's being obtuse here. I receive PMs from longtime members who warn me that you're franky2.

Again: he's going to lose 1 million bucks if BTC doesn't reach 1 million by June 17 2023.

Either he's overly risky or the US will indeed default on its debt by then (if the debt ceiling won't be raised)... chances are he might lose this bet.

Try again.

Well, one of does and it's not me.

try again.

that part is true.

some people don't understand the basics of how betting works. seems like you might be one of them... either that or the guy putting up the $1 million is a complete moron.

You have serious reading comprehension issues.

That guy on Twitter is going to lose his bet (1 million USD) if BTC doesn't reach 1 million USD by June 17 2023.

If he wins, the other guy should pay him 1 BTC.

Apparently Satoshi had never read page 35 of the Standards for efficient cryptography, SEC 1: Elliptic Curve Cryptography published on 2009 on Symmetric Encryption Schemes before writing this wrong reply

Post #15 is a better fit response to the Ordinals Attack (slightly modified below)
I.E. Side Chain.

Enlighten us then. But why would I want to hand over 1BTC so that I could win 1BTC in real world value when the odds are stacked against me. The bet is not even odds. It's probably like 1000 to 1 odds against winning the bet maybe even worse odds. That's how people go broke, you know?

You clearly didn't understand the bet.

Came across an archive with all of Satoshi's posts here in the Forum and one is from Jan 2010 in response to a question asked. The thread deals with what has now become known as ordinals...
Replies 10-12 fit in quite well...

I'm not really sure the terms of this bet are what I had in mind. The way he's got the odds at 40 to 1, I'm not sure there's really any benefit for people trying to take him up on that offer. First of all, they're not going to win the bet as btc is not going to be worth $1M in 90 days. Not sure why anyone would waste 1BTC thinking that was going to happen. 2nd of all, in the extremely unlikely event that their longshot bet wins, they pickup about 40 BTC which in today's dollars is only worth 1BTC. So essentially the guy putting up the $1M USD is taking them for a ride. They're only getting 1:1 odds on their "against" bet. What a bunch of dummies.

https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1636797265317867520

It matters if your buying power is only 1/10 that it was in 1956, then you ONLY have the perception of your house going up (or that you are better off)..

Sure, you are better off to have had a house rather than that poor sucker who kept the money under the mattress or put the money in less appreciating assets, and since we likely are not really disagreeing overall about the idea that some assets appreciate more than others, there is no need for us to go down the list of assets.. ..

...except maybe to mention that bitcoin has been an asset class that has almost exclusively outperformed any other asset class in the past 4-10 years, and  of course, the longer that you have been in (mostly accumulating and HODLing), and not been fucking around with trading, then the more likely that you would have outperformed any other place (asset class) that you could have placed your value.. including real estate (generally speaking).

well i don't think it really matters. turning 27k into 227k is only possible using something like real estate. inflation (eroding of the value of the us dollar) that's a given no matter what you do with your money. so all things being equal, multiplying your money by 10 is not bad. what would you have if you left your money in a bank account?  

You sound confused.

In those kinds of cases, it is best that you account for inflation.. .. whether you account for the various prices in "today's" dollars or in 1956 dollars, otherwise it seems likely that you are going to be confused in regards to the relativity of the price versus the value.

I will grant you that between 1956 and 2023, certain kinds of assets held their value better than other kinds of assets.

My childhood home was purchased new in 1956 by my mom dad and my moms grandparents.

cost of 27k

I sold it in 1989 for 227k

It now lists for 1.2 million.

The basement was finished and it is a legal 3 famliy home. It was a two family home in 1956.

So in 67 years it went up 44.44x

this is only about 6.7% inflation rate.

so what is 6.7% for the next 33 years.

30000

turns in 255,004 by 2056


Not sure but It would mean a one dollar fee now would be eight.

but fees worth 8 and equal to 1 now don’t hurt I guess.

If I do a one dollar fee now it does not mean much.

So eight bucks in 2056 won’t be much.

but 8 vs 1 does not fix

.0122 btc vs 6.25 the ratios are not that equal.

I don't want to get too far off topic (even though that seems to be the direction that you guys are going... hahahahaha.. I will blame you guys), yet I want to say that of course, it is easy to confuse concepts of how much BTC will be worth in the future and the likely (inevitable) ongoing devaluation of the dollar (frequently described as inflation).

I think that many times when we are making predictions about BTC's future prices, we should be attempting to clarify these concepts rather than convoluting them, so if we are now making a prediction of a million dollar bitcoin (or millions of dollars for a bitcoin), then we should be referring to that future price in today's dollar's rather than adding that additional level of complication regarding how much the dollar is going to devalue (or deflate in value) or how much different goods and services will have different values relative to each other in the future (and also relative to the dollar).

Even Atlas's famous June 4, 2011 thread had predicted that we would all be elite gentlemen based on a $10k BTC price, and I would consider that $10k in 2011 would be the same as somewhere between $20k and $30k today (based on devaluation of the dollar since 2011) - depending on which measures you use or which products/services are in your basket of comparative good.

Of course, some of our recent attempts to tie BTC price into the subject of this thread has to do with incentives to mine bitcoin based on transaction fees versus the shrinking of the reward component of mining and for sure by 2056, we are only getting around 2,441,406 satoshis per block reward, and 3.515625 BTC per day, so there is a kind of built in presumption that either BTC prices are going up in order to make up for the known lowering reward amounts, or transaction fees are going up or some combination of those two, and of course, there are so many variables to merely get to those numbers that we cannot really know at this time beyond watching dynamics how the bitcoin foundational incentive specifics are going to work out (and even considering varying macro-factors - including seemingly ongoing attacks on bitcoin - though bitcoin was designed for such attacks).

A kind of presumption of the security of bitcoin's blockchain likely only presumes a doubling of the price every four years in order to maintain its value, even though in the past 12 years-ish of BTC's existence, we have had right around a doubling of BTC's price every year, and likely the current doubling rate of BTC's price is not very sustainable.. but it is not needed to continue at such a rate - and perhaps may not even be needing to double every 4 years as I mentioned in order to be secure and sustainable, yet even with those presumptions of doubling of the BTC price about every four years, we also have other likely adoption and growth of varying bitcoin network effects that continue to put upwards pressures on BTC prices.  

In order for me to make this post, I felt that it was necessary for me to go to my thread and to revise my fuck you status chart.. and I gotta better figure out how to format charts - because it is too much work, so my dates ONLY go up to mid-2035.. which shows BTC bottom prices at $240k per BTC in 2030, $640k  BTC in mid-2035, $1 million by mid-2038, and $5,6439,679 by mid-2056 (I placed mid-2038 and mid-2056 in my fuck you status chart, just for the purpose of reference in this thread).

It is possible.

I said could have.

Not will have.

First off for it to happen every transaction would need be a perfectly small sized one.

---

---

Lets try a better way for 2056

here are 10 blocks made recently


so pretend it is 2056 rewards are  0.0122

785,663       0.1527xxx  + 0.0122 = 0.1649 per block
785,662       0.2281xxx
785,661       0.3494xxx
785,660       0.1664xxx
785,659       0.0724xxx
785,658       0.2208xxx
785,657       0.0613xxx
785,656       0.0523xxx
785,655       0.2567xxx
785,654       0.1067xxx


0.1649 per block at 1,000,000 a coin = 164,900 usd a block right now a block is around 180,000 .


so if difficulty 2x equal and hardware is 2x better we have the same amount spent on protection of assets as we do today

but coins are 1,000,000 and 20,000,000 x 1,000,000 = 20 trillion market cap protected by 10 billion in gear and maybe 20,000 megawatts of energy

So miners would make a smaller profit in 2056.

now if the block had 2x the transaction capability say 4000, the  max transaction would be 152,700/4000 or 38usd  a  transaction.

The issue I have without ordinals or NFTS to transferring old btc 'lost' back to rewards is blocks will be too small value for miners even at 1,000,000 a coin and .1527 btc in fees + 0.0122

SO the setup is not designed to live long and prosper without tweaking it.

and the scrypt along with doge and ltc is design to last hundreds of years.


So ask yourself a system designed to have issues by 2056
or a system designed to last hundreds of years.

What is going to happen.


In fact give me a math example

for 2056 at $500,000
and $1,000,000
and $2,000,000
and $3,000,000
and $4,000,000
and $5,000,000 per BTC that works
up to $10,000,000 per BTC
you can use fees at
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0 coins a block

and block size of 4 or 8 or 16 or 32

gear could be 4x as good.
and diff could be 4x the size.


No example works until you get to block sizes of 32

The fee cost gets too high miners would flee to scrypt

it is 2023 I am talking 2056 only 33 years away.

I have tried lots of calculations and they all suck for the future for BTC.

A gimmick or twist will need to happen.

BTW coinbase going all LN and off book will simply turn BTC into banking.

So playing with NFT and ordinal is not the worst idea.

Anyone want to plug in
for 2056


BTC price 100k to 10 mil
Diff 1 to 8x
Gear 1 to 8x
block size 4 to 32


Show me something that works as well as the current
price at 30k
6.3 a block
diff at 1x
gear at 1x
block size at 4

Everything I do shows crash and burn in 2056

 with the exceptions of a  perfectly done LN with perfect regulation which = 'banking'

or reclaiming dead coins and pushing them out as do over issues.


So I see Scrypt taking over down the road.

i doubt you would be willing to do that. i'm sure alot of people would be lining up to take your money.

how much are they willing to bet? any of them put their money where their mouth is? 

I'm willing to bet it will be worth 1 million USD by 2030 at the latest.

Some people claim it will reach this fiat valuation by 17 June 2023...

if inflation keeps going up, it might need to in order to just hold its value...if bitcoin is the same price then as it is now then bitcoin failed.  failed to deliver a return to investors...

When GOs start grinding empty blocks with doublespends in them on PoS chains shitcoiners will start caring about time to finalized settlement rather than THE SPEED AT WHICH ONE OF THE CENTRALIZED NODES SENDS THE TX TO ONE OF THE OTHER 10 CENTRALIZED NODES

I don't know if you're really a newbie, or if you're merely trolling. Because if you are truly a newbie, then I believe you haven't fully understood that "speed of confirmation" doesn't matter, it's about settlement assurances. Technically one confirmation in Bitcoin is probably equivalent to more than ten times more than a confirmation from a shitcoin.