Topic: Nights Watch by Afrikoin - page 104. (Read 303329 times)

Gold: A Boombustology Perspective

by Vikram Mansharamani, PhD

http://www.mansharamani.com/opinion-piece/gold-a-boombustology-perspective/

also on the other reddit:

https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/5xv0at/antpool_signals_for_bitcoin_unlimited/

just to balance things... ;-)

more on today's episode of bitcoin hard fork drama

see comments here

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/5xv6yq/antpool_just_mined_a_bu_block/

Wow! Big claim

I'll happily concede if it does.

My expectations are based on a rejection.

Oh and one last thing that I got from insider information, ETF will get aproved. Mark my words.

The first drop will be to $1000

the second drop will be to $700 - $800

An a - b - c correction of the wave 5 top on the weekly.

Then we reassess the market

Yes, same to you. You unfollow Vinny Lingham on Twitter
PS: I said 15-20% MAX.

Can we agree that if a post ETF dump happens of upto 15%, you never come back to post on this thread?

Still winning though.

so, there's that too

 

you are right! I am going to cry!

Lol!

Look, you got to put your neck out in this world and pick a stand. Win or lose, it is more important to have a stand.

Maybe you will appreciate this when you grow out of your diapers

I really want to see Afrikon's face when no dump (of more than 15-20%) happens after ETF.
I bet he's going to cry. He is the most pessimistic person I have every seen.
Always posts about dump, dump, dump like he wakes up and prays for dump dump dump.

good video by joel

Market Update: Pushing Highs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZHYcrx8PQ8

I appreciate your detailed analysis, but I don't agree with some of your points.

I think you're right that, barring any announcement, the price will continue to rise this week.

When the SEC is planning to reject an ETF, they usually tell the submitter in advance, and the submitter usually withdraws the proposal, on average 3.5 days before the deadline. In other words, a withdrawal could happen any time in the next week. Therefore, the best play for those anticipating rejection would be to sell and place low buy orders now. (I don't like selling, so I found some other money to cover my extremely low buy orders. While I'm hoping for approval, I wouldn't mind the opportunity to double my coins.)

I believe much of the run-up in recent months has been in anticipation of the COIN ETF, and bitcoin tends to overreact to news, so I expect the flash crash will be lower than you're anticipating. However, I agree that we will recover to the current levels, although I think it might take a few months. If the flash crash is not low enough to hit the extremely low buy orders I placed last week, I expect to be able to buy the dip after a withdrawal or rejection below $800.

If the ETF is approved, I expect an immediate price jump, not a gradual one. Markets tend to price things in well in advance. I expect the upward jump from approval will be much larger than crash after withdrawal or rejection, so it makes sense to be long, although I'm not brave enough to be leveraged long.

Yes, you are absolutely right. We will soon start speculating on the next ETF, so even if the COIN ETF is not approved, I expect that we'll be hitting new all-time highs before the end of 2017, which is another reason to stay long through the next week.

as this weekend dump is coming to a close, a few points I would like to make.

1: a lot of money has been flowing into bitcoin recently... as such I imagine the price will continue up this week.

2: if you think the ETF will be denied, your optimal strategy will be to sell later this week... perhaps Wednesday or Thursday, and then rebuy on the dip after it is denied.

3: there are many people who are expecting the price to collapse if the ETF is denied. they are wrong. let's say the price rises into the upper 1300s this week and the ETF is denied I would expect a $100-$200 drop to bring us into the lower 1200s. perhaps lower but only briefly. then we resume up. many people attempting to buy the dip will miss it.

4: if the ETF is approved, you can buy afterwards. the best case scenario in terms of price increase is for the ETF to be approved and to start trading in a month or two. speculation would drive the price up very nicely and when the ETF starts trading, it will likely keep us up there.

if the ETF is denied we get to start speculating on the next ETF right? or the GBTC $500 million IPO which is planned for October? correst me if I'm wrong please.

https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/5xl1hv/daily_discussion_sunday_march_05_2017/deja03k/

This is what I'm watching. The upper and lower lines are obviously the long-term support and resistance from 2015 that we all know and love. Then there's the channel that the price has been in since the dump to $735 and finally the short-term support line since the breakout from $1050 on February 20. That line obviously proved itself relevant earlier today when the price was lurking around the $1250s and eventually bounced up.

I can't help but think that $1300 will be broken tomorrow or Tuesday but then what? We've got long-term resistance, short-term resistance, the whole ETF deal, jeez... I'd love to go long here but there's too much uncertainty and I'm too emotional. The path will be clearer when either a) the SEC has announced their decision or b) the resistance has been broken.

Either way, we're in for a very exciting week!
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/5xl1hv/daily_discussion_sunday_march_05_2017/dejjsal/

So many geniuses are planning to quickly buy or sell after the SEC decision. Lol good luck with that. This will be such a mess either way, because everyone thinks they're quicker and smarter than the rest, when in reality they're just lemmings jumping off a cliff.

A simple version of why the decision will come by Saturday, despite some believing it could be on Monday: The date for the decision has been noted and repeatedly published as March 11th, regardless of what people seem to believe about the SEC having the ability to wait until Monday. For this reason and this reason alone, even if the SEC could wait until Monday, a "no decision" by the end of the 11th and tons of people will assume a tacit approval and buy. Then you're telling me they're really gonna come out on Monday, two days later, and say "oh sorry, when we said the 11th you should have realized it was a Saturday and that we really mean't the 13th. Also, sorry for all those that bought on Saturday night and Sunday thinking we approved it, but nah, we're not going to approve it...". Yeah. I don't see the SEC doing that. If there's ONE way to fuck the people over big time, it would be that (lead them to believe it's approved and then pull the rug out), and it's antithesis to the SEC's goals as a regulatory agency. They say the 11th, I'm taking them at their word. If I'm wrong, I'll eat my socks.

Also, it kind of doesn't matter. Only once in the last two years has a rule change been outright rejected, otherwise they're always allowed a withdrawal, and on average this withdrawal is a few days before the printed deadline. We make it to Friday night anyways without a withdrawal, and I don't care whether it's Saturday or Monday, the approval is coming. No way do they reject it or allow it to be withdrawn on Monday, two days after the date they specify as the decision date. Even Saturday would be ridiculous as a date of withdrawal or rejection. They obviously know by now what the decision is. They won't toy with the public like that. The only rational decision that could come on Monday (that doesn't fuck over pretty much every investor in the underlying, not to mention leverage traders) is an approval.

TLDR; even if they can wait until Monday, they won't. We make it to Friday night without a withdrawal and I think we're good. Odds start drastically increasing in favor of approval vs withdrawal as the week goes on.

source: https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/5xl1hv/daily_discussion_sunday_march_05_2017/dejtmga/

Here are some levels to consider taking profits at if bitcoin goes ballistic 1800, 2800, 3800

TA doesn't apply to Bitcoin when the gates open for the flood, imo. Either way, I have 3 different alarms set for this week, and ready to offload or accumulate, according to the SEC decision(immediately). Great opportunity for a trade.