Stock market going down may or may not affect crypto. I'm still unsure if it will have a negative, positive, or no strong effect.
the long term charts are highly correlated, but the stock market falling shouldn't directly affect crypto. the question is whether a larger financial crisis or depression is on the horizon.
that would affect
all markets, including stocks and crypto.
it's mainly equities and crude oil that have been hit hardest and both have staged solid recoveries (or at least the beginnings on one). the current dip in stocks hasn't exactly spread to other markets so i'm inclined to reject the idea that a major financial crisis is about to hit. the economic numbers don't support the idea of a crash either (yet anyway).
so i'm thinking 2019 will probably be a pretty sideways (but volatile) year for both stocks
and bitcoin.
I certainly wouldn't say the long term charts say they are highly correlated. I think if anything they show there is no correlation, and that bitcoin's market cycle has had nothing at all to do with the stock market cycle, though that could change as bitcoin becomes larger and larger and therefore is affecting by the movings of larger and larger entities in the global financial system. Unless you are just saying they've both been in decade long bull runs which isn't really fair to make any assessment of the correlation then
i disagree. it's fair to observe a correlation as a correlation until strong divergences appear that suggest otherwise. i think it's rather unfair to completely ignore that bitcoin and equities have been rising together for the last decade (and even experienced similar corrective cycles in 2011, 2015, and 2018)
I happen to disagree with you too
Though not on technical grounds, of course. Indeed, if two indicators go up and down together, you will see a lot of correlation. And whether there is a causal link between them (either direct or via an independent factor not yet accounted for) is utterly irrelevant simply because having a high enough absolute value of the correlation coefficient will suffice for two factors to be correlated, statistically speaking
With that said, though, we shouldn't discard the real forces driving both markets, and these may be perfectly "uncorrelated". For example, the Bitcoin price surge of 2015-2017 was caused entirely by hype as its real adoption was pathetic to justify such rise. But can you say the same about equities markets? Well, their rise may be due to hype as well, at least to a certain degree, but is it the same variety of hype that caused Bitcoin prices to soar?
