and accept Bitcoin.
My prediction is that major economic players will choose to accept neither Bitcoin or XT until it is clear which will be successful and this will only cause damage to the overall adoption of Bitcoin
Many of those "major economic players" as well as 4 of the 5 largest miners have expressed support for increasing the block size limit to 8 MB, in some form. That is not yet support for BitcoinXT, of course. If the Core devs had some respect for the community, they would cede and raise the limit in the Core too; and then the crisis would be resolved.
Need I remind everybody that it is LIMIT that is being increased, not the block SIZE? The limit has been 1 MB since 2010, but the average block size is still 450 kB, and has never hit the limit until the recent "stress tests".
So, if the limit is increased to 8 MB, either by Core and/or by XT, it would make no difference until mid-2016, when the average block size is expected to be ~800 kB. Thereafter, the difference will be that, with 8 MB, the average block size will continue growing slowly, in the measure that adoption continues to increase (perhaps to 1.5 MB in mid-2017, 3 MB in mid-2018, etc.); whereas, with 1 MB, there would be recurrent traffic jams starting in mid-2016, and adoption would stop growing.
You are correct, and I have echoed your logic after seeing it during discussions of the last stress tests, that if the
max block size limit is raised, then the
actual block sizes will not necessarily be raised.
I do certainly agree that the block size needs to be increased for largely the same reasons as you list above. Plus the amount of resources required to run a full node would hardly be additionally burdensome, especially considering the advancements in technology since 2010.
Based on what I have read, there are some conflicts of interest with the core developers in that they have an employment relationship with a company who stands to profit if Bitcoin were to become more centralized with a 1 MB max block size. As a result, some of the core dev's income stands to be diminished/reduced/terminated if they were to support a larger block size, and the max block size appears to be unlikely to be increased in Bitcoin core.
My primary concern with BitcoinXT is that it will change the protocol without first achieving a consensus. They could possibly change the protocol without first having the support of the various exchanges, and payment processors. If Bitpay (for example) does not accept BitcoinXT for payment, then any customer of a website/merchant who is using Bitpay is unlikely to be able to pay with BitcoinXT coins.
A concern of mine is that since it is not clear that exchanges/payment processors will immediately accept BitcoinXT coins, then holders of BitcoinXT coins will have difficulty finding value in their BitcoinXT coins. The same is true for Bitcoin coins, if the exchanges/payment processors will no longer accept Bitcoin coins after XT forks the network. However, if none of the major exchanges/payment processors publicly states support for either XT or Bitcoin, then it will be very unclear as to which will end up succeeding. As long as this is unclear, there is the possibility that major exchanges/payment processors will not accept
any crypto deposits until it is clear which will be successful. Or they could say that they will only accept deposits if a transaction is confirmed on
both the Bitcoin and XT networks, which would mean that inputs that never deviate between the two chains would have greater value then inputs that have been spend on one chain but not the other.