Nov 18th to Dec 1 diff thread (-0.35%) to (1.14%) - page 2.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: philipma1957 on December 02, 2014, 12:24:04 PM

winding down to the finish. and it is dec 2 not dec 1 and that is always good as it means a low jump or no jump at all. also price is around 383 usd not bad.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty >>>>>>>>>(-0.28%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   40,300,030,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:   40,185,906,820 (-0.28%)
Adjust time:   After 37 Blocks, About 6.1 hours
Hashrate(?):   300,279,521 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.5 minutes
6 blocks: 59.0 minutes
Updated:   12:20 (3.0 minutes ago)

http://www.bitcoincharts.com >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (-0.41%)

Blocks   332603
Total BTC   13.565M

Difficulty   40300030328
Estimated   40133512214 in 37 blks

Network total   307199.681 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.39 / 563 s

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

winding down to the finish. and it is dec 2 not dec 1 and that is always good as it means a low jump or no jump at all.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty >>>>>>>>>(-0.28%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   40,300,030,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:   40,185,906,820 (-0.28%)
Adjust time:   After 37 Blocks, About 6.1 hours
Hashrate(?):   300,279,521 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.5 minutes
6 blocks: 59.0 minutes
Updated:   12:20 (3.0 minutes ago)

http://www.bitcoincharts.com >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (-0.41%)

Blocks   332603
Total BTC   13.565M

Difficulty   40300030328
Estimated   40133512214 in 37 blks

Network total   307199.681 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.39 / 563 s

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: lowbander80 on December 01, 2014, 01:08:15 PM

Some big players are changing equipment
enjoy it as long as it lasts...

I am. and I am also converting s-3's to sp20's on a smaller scale.

lowbander80

legendary

Activity: 1036

Merit: 1000

Some big players are changing equipment
enjoy it as long as it lasts...

notlist3d

legendary

Activity: 1456

Merit: 1000

Quote from: philipma1957 on December 01, 2014, 12:53:19 PM

Quote from: mavericklm on December 01, 2014, 11:10:32 AM

Estimated Next Difficulty: 40,248,300,290 (-0.13%)
i think i stress myself too much Roll Eyes

yeah whatever it is tomorrow

-1 to +1 are good numbers coin price is around 381 also good.

numbers are so good the jump will not be on the 1st it will be on the 2nd of dec.

I will be happy welcoming a 1 percent jump. Wish they were all so low. I don't think we will see negative, but I hope I'm wrong.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: mavericklm on December 01, 2014, 11:10:32 AM

Estimated Next Difficulty: 40,248,300,290 (-0.13%)
i think i stress myself too much Roll Eyes

yeah whatever it is tomorrow

-1 to +1 are good numbers coin price is around 381 also good.

numbers are so good the jump will not be on the 1st it will be on the 2nd of dec.

mavericklm

hero member

Activity: 742

Merit: 500

Estimated Next Difficulty: 40,248,300,290 (-0.13%)
i think i stress myself too much Roll Eyes

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: klondike_bar on November 30, 2014, 02:49:50 PM

Quote from: notlist3d on November 30, 2014, 12:45:50 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on November 30, 2014, 07:24:21 AM

spondoolies sp20's have been shipping the bitmaintech coupons had to help sell the s-4's. So 1 or 2% jump looks pretty sure right now.

I purchased 2 sp20's and kind of want to get one more. I know I am not the only one doing this.

I expanded aswell. With winter weather hard to pass up cheap/free cooling.

It will be the big centers that really give us a jump. I thought they would wait till next gen, but the SP gear appears to have quite the lifespan with it's underclock. Guess time will tell.

even so, its virtually impossible to see 15%+ jumps happen many more times without an increase in BTC value. Its infeasible for people to routinely add that much to thier farms without rapidly hitting thermal or power limits and needing to rely on cloudmining or find a dedicated location. I think we will see
+0.2% this increase
+10% next
+6% after
+ 2% after, followed by a few more small increases unless hardware prices or bitcoin value changes

close to my thoughts..
+1
+6
+5
+2

same reasoning as you.

for me I max at 4-5k watts in the winter

2-3k watts in the summer well 1.5-2.5k watts in the summer

home miners like me must be less then 20% of the network.

but even big (5ph or more) guys would be morons to expand if they are turning profits now.

the only way is they get a cheap 0.1 watt machine.

by cheap;

cheap to build not cheap quality.

todays numbers are

(+0.13%) about 40,353,975,917

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

some are lower
http://www.bitcoincharts.com

has it at 40285785777

this is (-0.035%)

http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate

40039972197 that is (-0.645%)

klondike_bar

legendary

Activity: 2128

Merit: 1005

ASIC Wannabe

Quote from: notlist3d on November 30, 2014, 12:45:50 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on November 30, 2014, 07:24:21 AM

spondoolies sp20's have been shipping the bitmaintech coupons had to help sell the s-4's. So 1 or 2% jump looks pretty sure right now.

I purchased 2 sp20's and kind of want to get one more. I know I am not the only one doing this.

I expanded aswell. With winter weather hard to pass up cheap/free cooling.

It will be the big centers that really give us a jump. I thought they would wait till next gen, but the SP gear appears to have quite the lifespan with it's underclock. Guess time will tell.

even so, its virtually impossible to see 15%+ jumps happen many more times without an increase in BTC value. Its infeasible for people to routinely add that much to thier farms without rapidly hitting thermal or power limits and needing to rely on cloudmining or find a dedicated location. I think we will see
+0.2% this increase
+10% next
+6% after
+ 2% after, followed by a few more small increases unless hardware prices or bitcoin value changes

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: notlist3d on November 30, 2014, 12:45:50 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on November 30, 2014, 07:24:21 AM

spondoolies sp20's have been shipping the bitmaintech coupons had to help sell the s-4's. So 1 or 2% jump looks pretty sure right now.

I purchased 2 sp20's and kind of want to get one more. I know I am not the only one doing this.

I expanded aswell. With winter weather hard to pass up cheap/free cooling.

It will be the big centers that really give us a jump. I thought they would wait till next gen, but the SP gear appears to have quite the lifespan with it's underclock. Guess time will tell.

yeah .55 to .57 watts on underclock will really allow for long use.

With my higher power costs I need to get efficient gear.

BTW I grabbed a third sp20.

notlist3d

legendary

Activity: 1456

Merit: 1000

Quote from: philipma1957 on November 30, 2014, 07:24:21 AM

spondoolies sp20's have been shipping the bitmaintech coupons had to help sell the s-4's. So 1 or 2% jump looks pretty sure right now.

I purchased 2 sp20's and kind of want to get one more. I know I am not the only one doing this.

I expanded aswell. With winter weather hard to pass up cheap/free cooling.

It will be the big centers that really give us a jump. I thought they would wait till next gen, but the SP gear appears to have quite the lifespan with it's underclock. Guess time will tell.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

spondoolies sp20's have been shipping the bitmaintech coupons had to help sell the s-4's. So 1 or 2% jump looks pretty sure right now.

I purchased 2 sp20's and kind of want to get one more. I know I am not the only one doing this.

mavericklm

hero member

Activity: 742

Merit: 500

Estimated Next Difficulty: 40,346,152,265 (+0.11%)
monday will tell us more Undecided

klondike_bar

legendary

Activity: 2128

Merit: 1005

ASIC Wannabe

Quote from: philipma1957 on November 29, 2014, 06:33:41 PM

well with 3 days left we are still under (-0.38%) at https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

but a jump to +2 in the next 3 days would not surprise me.

Generally weekends are lull periods in new hashrate.

Though there could be a 5%+ jump in the following difficulty adjustment with the bulk pricing spondoolies and bitmain have for the weekend

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

well with 3 days left we are still under (-0.38%) at https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

but a jump to +2 in the next 3 days would not surprise me.

opossum

hero member

Activity: 924

Merit: 1000

Quote from: armedmilitia on November 28, 2014, 03:23:02 PM

To be honest, I've been watching the difficulty estimations change a little too much, and I'm convinced that all the sub 2% swings in the next estimated difficulty are just variance, plain and simple. Crossing my fingers, though, I really want to see the diff drop. For once my payouts might... actually... increase! Shocked

I agree, the very small changes in estimated next difficulty is likely variance in the network luck. Actual changes in difficulty of only ~2% would likely be that a net amount of miners would have been taken offline

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: armedmilitia on November 28, 2014, 03:23:02 PM

To be honest, I've been watching the difficulty estimations change a little too much, and I'm convinced that all the sub 2% swings in the next estimated difficulty are just variance, plain and simple. Crossing my fingers, though, I really want to see the diff drop. For once my payouts might... actually... increase! Shocked

too many days away to really know, but it moved to (-0.65%) about 40,037,572,339

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

some are lower
http://www.bitcoincharts.com

has it at 39807376875

this is (-1.22%)

http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate

39421642542 that is (-2.17%)

armedmilitia

hero member

Activity: 562

Merit: 506

We're going to need a bigger heatsink.

To be honest, I've been watching the difficulty estimations change a little too much, and I'm convinced that all the sub 2% swings in the next estimated difficulty are just variance, plain and simple. Crossing my fingers, though, I really want to see the diff drop. For once my payouts might... actually... increase! Shocked

Puppet

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1040

Quote from: davejh on November 28, 2014, 12:52:14 PM

The thing to watch is the end of the previous difficulty period. If it was up the current trend then it tends to weight the estimates too high, if it was down then it tends to weight them too low. The last one was high so my guess is that we'll see the difficulty dip back down again.

Bitcoinwisdom extrapolates from a trend. Thats useful if there is a trend, but it exaggerates random fluctuations, as it will 'expect' a recent spike or drop to continue. Thats why its probably predicting too high difficulty now.

blockexplorer just calculates average hashrate and bases its prediction on that, which is useful if there is no trend, but only random fluctuations. Historically there is of course a very strong upwards trend which made blockexplorer consistently underestimate the next adjustment. But right now, I dont see a distinct trend, and I think it may be more accurate than bitcoinwisdom:

http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate -> 39456072471 (-2.1%)

Mind you, I do hope Im wrong since I have a small friendly bet on difficulty going up this period, but I would bet Im gonna lose that bet :p.

davejh

full member

Activity: 136

Merit: 100

Quote from: philipma1957 on November 28, 2014, 09:53:52 AM

Quote from: notlist3d on November 28, 2014, 09:47:30 AM

Quote from: judypug1956 on November 27, 2014, 11:37:01 PM

still looking pretty good:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Estimated Next Difficulty: 39,846,926,153 (-1.12%)

It shot back up: Estimated Next Difficulty: 40,181,170,149 (-0.29%)

I really want to see a negative. Hopefully it goes down a little again.

now it is (-.19%) so it may end up +1 or +2 oh well.

The thing to watch is the end of the previous difficulty period. If it was up the current trend then it tends to weight the estimates too high, if it was down then it tends to weight them too low. The last one was high so my guess is that we'll see the difficulty dip back down again.

Topic: Nov 18th to Dec 1 diff thread (-0.35%) to (1.14%) - page 2. (Read 6899 times)