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Topic: Nov 18th to Dec 1 diff thread (-0.35%) to (1.14%) - page 3. (Read 6887 times)

full member
Activity: 136
Merit: 100
Guys +/-2% in difficulty change can be caused just by variance (probability of finding blocks). So even if real hashrate didn't change at all, resulting difficulty will ALWAYS be different from previous one.

But I agree there is suspicious calm on hashrate charts Smiley

+/-5% wouldn't be that surprising. If the current lull in the hash rate expansion continues then we'll almost certainly see a few larger difficulty changes entirely related to variance.
legendary
Activity: 980
Merit: 1040
Who is supplying the cloud miners?

No one
Well, aside from pizza deliveries and the like.
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
still looking pretty good:
 

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty



 Estimated Next Difficulty:   39,846,926,153  (-1.12%)

It shot back up: Estimated Next Difficulty:    40,181,170,149 (-0.29%)

I really want to see a negative.  Hopefully it goes down a little again.

now it is (-.19%)  so it may end up +1 or +2 oh well.
legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000
still looking pretty good:
 

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty



 Estimated Next Difficulty:   39,846,926,153  (-1.12%)

It shot back up: Estimated Next Difficulty:    40,181,170,149 (-0.29%)

I really want to see a negative.  Hopefully it goes down a little again.
sr. member
Activity: 355
Merit: 276
still looking pretty good:
 

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty



 Estimated Next Difficulty:   39,846,926,153  (-1.12%)
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
beginers, who also need the heat, are buying the s1 also projects guys that make miners with the boards on raspberry pi
but most s1 are going out!

as is any gear at 1.2 or 1.5 watts .


 I would even think some people are turning off 1 watt gear.

 a s-2 owner or a dragon miner owner may be tired of the noise and small profit it is making him.

a 1tb machine using 1000 watts with .15 cent power will make 22 dollars this month
with 16 cent power it earns 15 dollars not much to bother running the gear.

todays numbers

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   40,300,030,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:   39,419,474,800 (-2.18%)
Adjust time:   After 811 Blocks, About 5.8 days
Hashrate(?):   276,313,389 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.3 minutes
3 blocks: 30.9 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 500
beginers, who also need the heat, are buying the s1 also projects guys that make miners with the boards on raspberry pi
but most s1 are going out!
sr. member
Activity: 443
Merit: 250
Small spike in the hash rate 2 days ago but it could not change the trend: looks like we really will see the first decrease after 1.5 year. However, people predicting on our site are still skeptical and some still predict against an decrease in this year: so you still get 1.3 times your money back if you predict on a decrease this year and it actually happens.

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/difficulty-will-decrease-in-2014/

(click on "show additional stats" to see how probability changed over time..)
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
Estimated Next Difficulty:   39,391,636,665 (-2.25%)

low price cuts out some small miners!?

maybe but if you have  14 cent power  and a 1.2 watt per gh   you make about 12 bucks a month on 1th  .  this knocks lots of people out.

if you have 9 cent power and a 2 watt per gh you make about 1 dollar a month.

So all the s-1's  are being terminated.



to run a s-1 at 140gh and 170 watts

you need at least 10 of them and 11 cent power to make about 50 bucks a month.   a lot of work for 50 bucks

lets say you have 7 cent power  those 10 s-1's make 100 bucks  a month.   

 I have to think all s-1's are going off line.  all 2 watt and most 1.2 watt gear.
I also think big companies want to upgrade slowly.

Say antminer sells 1000 s-3's   and adds s-5's in a bit not today.

1000 s-3's = 500th   and they replace 1000 s-1's   that is 200th so the gain for the home miner is 200gh to 500gh.   or 300gh x 1000 = 300th 

but antminer was mining them so on the front end the net work dropped 500th  so -500th and + 300th is a loss of 200th.

This is part of what has happened.
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 500
Estimated Next Difficulty:   39,391,636,665 (-2.25%)

low price cuts out some small miners!?
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
Now bitwisdom - Estimated Next Difficulty:    39,439,620,239 (-2.14%) keep on coming negative numbers Smiley


bitcoincharts is about  (-0.94%)


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/
legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000
Now bitwisdom - Estimated Next Difficulty:    39,439,620,239 (-2.14%) keep on coming negative numbers Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000
Bitcoin Wisdom - Estimated Next Difficulty:    39,766,299,048 (-1.32%)

Looking more and more like a great time for miners.  I will have huge smile if we have even the most tiny negative change.
legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1000
Thug for life!
If we truly get negative I will be extremly happy.  I can say none of my ROI excel sheets included a negative difficulty.

It does make sense though with low bitcoin price, those with hosting will be having a hard time with miners such as the old dragons.   
It would generally be good news for the vast majority of miners if the difficulty does does decrease.

People who have cloud mining contracts who were forced to prepay for their electricity (eg pb mining) would benefit the most as their revenue from their hashpower will go exclusively to their account/wallet. 
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
How many miners are shipping?  
-Bitmaintech
-KNC???

Who is supplying the cloud miners?

Are people thinking that the Antminers are going to be sold soon and we'll see a significant increase when then new ones come online?  If so, 10% or more?


 lots of possibilities .

 maybe knc can really build a .1 watt machine and mine with it in house and  sell cloud shares.  maybe no one else is close to that.

  If I were antminer and in this spot

I would :

A )off load all my c-1  s-3 and s-4 gear with a sale.     hmmm coupons anyone.


B) beat knc to the release with  my .3  watt  s-5


Or we may be seeing what I predicated a few months back. It  may  be happening.

 Difficulty fixing with the top 4-7 builders of asics acting like a cartel.
legendary
Activity: 1868
Merit: 1023
How many miners are shipping? 
-Bitmaintech
-KNC???

Who is supplying the cloud miners?

Are people thinking that the Antminers are going to be sold soon and we'll see a significant increase when then new ones come online?  If so, 10% or more?

sr. member
Activity: 355
Merit: 276
Well it is still negative as of today.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty     =  (-0.99%)
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
If we truly get negative I will be extremly happy.  I can say none of my ROI excel sheets included a negative difficulty.

It does make sense though with low bitcoin price, those with hosting will be having a hard time with miners such as the old dragons.   

yeah s-2's and dragons at 1 watt or more will be tough for business purpose's we may be seeing a lot of 1-1.2 watt gear being shut down.

a 1.1 watt 1th  machine right now with 10 cents a kwatt earns a big fat 50 bucks a month. with power costs .

I am using free setup free internet and free machine

So basically a lot of 1- 1.5 watt gear is going off line.

My s-3's do  .77 and they can be lowered to .67 per gh so they can hang in until diff of 80  or so.

If you don't have .8 or better at 10 cents or better things are bleak.

I would like to see 2 or 3   minus 1% adjustments in a row.  only time will tell.

The key is does a company or 2 build a .3 or .4 watt machine and keep it to their company for mining only
legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000
If we truly get negative I will be extremly happy.  I can say none of my ROI excel sheets included a negative difficulty.

It does make sense though with low bitcoin price, those with hosting will be having a hard time with miners such as the old dragons.   
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
Loving this week's difficulty.  If they could keep difficulty down during my winter months I would appreciate it Smiley

I personally expanded over winter.  We will see if trend continues if I made right decision.  I just could not pass free/cheap cooling with winter.

I grew and expanded last winter  shrank  this summer and grew back this fall-winter.

Except last winter btc price was double of todays price.... and i bet your mining hashrate does not scale up to the network difficulty either.

See the trend now?


and while you and I differ on a lot. we both agree that home miners will no longer ever be able to have a large part of the network in house.

my 16gb gpu farm in 2012 earned 2.2 coins a day. and burned 6k watts.

my 6.7th s-3 setup  earns 2.5 coins a month  and burns 5k watts.  my max power for winter is 7k  so I could go to 9th. 

that is 3.36 coins a month  at todays prices say 1200 usd before power.  as shitty as that is compared to  3 and 4 thousand a month before power last winter I can still pull a small profit.  and I now actively buy coins. much more then I ever did.

and right now as I type.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty >>>>>>>>>    (-1.45%)


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/ >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (-1.68%)


 
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