I think a big story that people haven't been talking about is the secondary Great Alt-Boom that happened a week after the BTC last craziness.
USD for many alt coins didn't follow with BTC boom. Instead the market was more cautious to spent the BTC equivalent for NMC, LTC, NVC etc.
But it's like everyone got on board the alts now. After some hesitation of wondering whether people would really spend 10 or 20 bucks on an LTC, people are spending 10/20 bucks on a LTC. If you don't buy into this theory, just look at LTC price, it didn't jump with BTC, there was a lot of hesitation. There was week delay or so before the Alt Coin boom.
The last Great Alt Boom was perhaps even more important than this last BTC boom from a trader's perspective, I think. I don't think anyone knew for sure whether the alts would climb with BTC in proportion to pre-boom prices, or if BTC's meteoric raise would not be matched in the alts. But ya, they were matched in the alts. That's something surprising and remarkable to me at least.
Topic: November 2013 Bubble Analysis - page 2. (Read 11424 times)
Hello, I'm a newer poster here-- just want to say hello and thank you for your dialogue and share a few of mine own thoughts. What an awesome thread! Slippery Slope, thank you and others for such careful and thoughtful analysis.
As stated, we have now seen the confirmed continuation within what appears to be the suggested trajectory (parabolic or however you wish to define it). While the nearly horizontal channel between approximately 750 - 850 held for several days, the breakout gives us further evidence that another doubling may reasonably occur, as stated. The fact that it was more horizontal should indicate greater strength at the breakout.
Perhaps the retracement to 450 from 900 will not ultimately be part of this bubble's character, if, in hindsight we are looking at one or even 2 more doublings in the coming weeks?
Or, else, the echo bubble idea seems reasonable, too. While media continues to cover Bitcoin, it certainly seems to be lessening, in cascading and diminishing reflections, as does volume. These two things should be increasing, if I understand the principles correctly, creating the fuel to drive price through resistance.
Hi and welcome to our forum!As stated, we have now seen the confirmed continuation within what appears to be the suggested trajectory (parabolic or however you wish to define it). While the nearly horizontal channel between approximately 750 - 850 held for several days, the breakout gives us further evidence that another doubling may reasonably occur, as stated. The fact that it was more horizontal should indicate greater strength at the breakout.
Perhaps the retracement to 450 from 900 will not ultimately be part of this bubble's character, if, in hindsight we are looking at one or even 2 more doublings in the coming weeks?
Or, else, the echo bubble idea seems reasonable, too. While media continues to cover Bitcoin, it certainly seems to be lessening, in cascading and diminishing reflections, as does volume. These two things should be increasing, if I understand the principles correctly, creating the fuel to drive price through resistance.
Regarding the depth of the retracement from the next peak, I look at the depth chart, Fibonacci ratios and historical price support levels. My current tactic is to await a pull back and buy some more fractional bitcoin at lower than peak prices. I am resolved not to sell or spend any investment bitcoins until at least 2017.
Remember to figure volume on at least three exchanges nowadays: BTC China, MtGox and BitStamp. Media is important when getting the word out but at this point I think it is personal networking, e.g. word of mouth that motivates new speculators to buy bitcoin. That networking is what I model with logistic adoption S curves.
Hello, I'm a newer poster here-- just want to say hello and thank you for your dialogue and share a few of mine own thoughts. What an awesome thread! Slippery Slope, thank you and others for such careful and thoughtful analysis.
As stated, we have now seen the confirmed continuation within what appears to be the suggested trajectory (parabolic or however you wish to define it). While the nearly horizontal channel between approximately 750 - 850 held for several days, the breakout gives us further evidence that another doubling may reasonably occur, as stated. The fact that it was more horizontal should indicate greater strength at the breakout.
Perhaps the retracement to 450 from 900 will not ultimately be part of this bubble's character, if, in hindsight we are looking at one or even 2 more doublings in the coming weeks?
Or, else, the echo bubble idea seems reasonable, too. While media continues to cover Bitcoin, it certainly seems to be lessening, in cascading and diminishing reflections, as does volume. These two things should be increasing, if I understand the principles correctly, creating the fuel to drive price through resistance.
As stated, we have now seen the confirmed continuation within what appears to be the suggested trajectory (parabolic or however you wish to define it). While the nearly horizontal channel between approximately 750 - 850 held for several days, the breakout gives us further evidence that another doubling may reasonably occur, as stated. The fact that it was more horizontal should indicate greater strength at the breakout.
Perhaps the retracement to 450 from 900 will not ultimately be part of this bubble's character, if, in hindsight we are looking at one or even 2 more doublings in the coming weeks?
Or, else, the echo bubble idea seems reasonable, too. While media continues to cover Bitcoin, it certainly seems to be lessening, in cascading and diminishing reflections, as does volume. These two things should be increasing, if I understand the principles correctly, creating the fuel to drive price through resistance.
I agree it looks that way SS
Onward to a new peak.
Evidence mounts that the November 18 peak was not conclusively collapsed. I expect a larger following bubble. Price doubling rates may again prove to be a good indicator when it comes to predicting the next price peak and date.
Evidence mounts that the November 18 peak was not conclusively collapsed. I expect a larger following bubble. Price doubling rates may again prove to be a good indicator when it comes to predicting the next price peak and date.
Yes I guess that could be true. I think we will see when we retest the support line thats coming up at around 600$ right now. If we break that I think the double top will take us back to the foot slopes of this rally.
So what do you guys make of the current double top near 900$??
There is no bubble that i know of that has had a double top after a more then 50% retraction. Isnt it a bubble after all? Is it one of the often cited but rarely observed "echo bubbles"?
There is no bubble that i know of that has had a double top after a more then 50% retraction. Isnt it a bubble after all? Is it one of the often cited but rarely observed "echo bubbles"?
I think it's probably just the old Bitcoin battering ram chipping away at $1000 like it usually does at major psychological barriers. I recall from springtime that it used to hit a little below a psychological barrier (like 10% below), take a few steps back, ram it again, take a few steps back, then finally break through. Like a battering ram at a castle wall.
Anyway, it would have been very worrying if it hadn't corrected after the insane run earlier this week. We were hoping for some consolidation, and now we have it. So far so good. Launch pad prepped, ready for takeoff. Hopefully avoid thermal curtain failure.
So what do you guys make of the current double top near 900$??
There is no bubble that i know of that has had a double top after a more then 50% retraction. Isnt it a bubble after all? Is it one of the often cited but rarely observed "echo bubbles"?
I have been buying fractions during the dips given the growing possibility that the November peak was not collapsed with enough emphasis thus serving as a base for another even greater blowoff rally. It would be technically very significant if the price breaks the all time high on respective exchanges. This breakthrough could occur within days given the strength of the buyers.There is no bubble that i know of that has had a double top after a more then 50% retraction. Isnt it a bubble after all? Is it one of the often cited but rarely observed "echo bubbles"?
At the moment, every one of my small purchases shows a profit.
So what do you guys make of the current double top near 900$??
There is no bubble that i know of that has had a double top after a more then 50% retraction. Isnt it a bubble after all? Is it one of the often cited but rarely observed "echo bubbles"?
There is no bubble that i know of that has had a double top after a more then 50% retraction. Isnt it a bubble after all? Is it one of the often cited but rarely observed "echo bubbles"?
I'm not saying that it will go that low, but it's possible. From the 10k coins seen in Gox order books, now there
are about 33k, and as holders will see the price not going up significantly, they might decide to sell more before
the price drops further, in a cascading effect. And then we may see multiple aborted new bubbles and capitulations.
are about 33k, and as holders will see the price not going up significantly, they might decide to sell more before
the price drops further, in a cascading effect. And then we may see multiple aborted new bubbles and capitulations.
Second, you completely fail to acknowledge the tremendous buying pressure at several support stops along the way. There are hundreds of millions of dollars sitting on the sidelines now that would KILL to buy at $60 and much higher.
+1 I see it very unlikely that we will drop below our April highs (the buy pressure below that is enormous). I see nothing technically nor fundamentally at the moment that would suggest that. We just got ahead of ourselves, and this will happen many times going forward as news waves of new money come into the game, and the traders play off this, as far as they can.
I'm not saying that it will go that low, but it's possible. From the 10k coins seen in Gox order books, now there
are about 33k, and as holders will see the price not going up significantly, they might decide to sell more before
the price drops further, in a cascading effect. And then we may see multiple aborted new bubbles and capitulations.
are about 33k, and as holders will see the price not going up significantly, they might decide to sell more before
the price drops further, in a cascading effect. And then we may see multiple aborted new bubbles and capitulations.
Second, you completely fail to acknowledge the tremendous buying pressure at several support stops along the way. There are hundreds of millions of dollars sitting on the sidelines now that would KILL to buy at $60 and much higher.
+1 I see it very unlikely that we will drop below our April highs (the buy pressure below that is enormous). I see nothing technically nor fundamentally at the moment that would suggest that. We just got ahead of ourselves, and this will happen many times going forward as news waves of new money come into the game, and the traders play off this, as far as they can.
Recall that we waited 6 days for the bottom in the April bubble.
I believe that this bubble has more in common with the April bubble than with the great bitcoin bubble of June 2011.
As Coinbase intermittently permits, I am buying small amounts.
I believe that this bubble has more in common with the April bubble than with the great bitcoin bubble of June 2011.
As Coinbase intermittently permits, I am buying small amounts.
We won't know if it's similar to the 2011 until it fully deflates, that's why I said POSSIBLE.
And with all the good press, it's still going down for now, due to market supply and demand.
Think about what can happen when there will be bad press about the crash.
Those who profited most by manipulating the price to new, almost unbelievable highs, will profit most,
when they will buy back tons of cheap coins at the bottom. Bitcoin will rise again and they'll make huge profits.
And with all the good press, it's still going down for now, due to market supply and demand.
Think about what can happen when there will be bad press about the crash.
Those who profited most by manipulating the price to new, almost unbelievable highs, will profit most,
when they will buy back tons of cheap coins at the bottom. Bitcoin will rise again and they'll make huge profits.
You are talking in crazy hypotheticals. The landscape from 2011 to now is completely changed. Have you not noticed a trend of higher highs and higher lows after every bubble? And now, all of a sudden, after 3 straight months of positive news (actually longer) we are going to buck the trend and have lower lows?
No way.
We won't know if it's similar to the 2011 until it fully deflates, that's why I said POSSIBLE.
And with all the good press, it's still going down for now, due to market supply and demand.
Think about what can happen when there will be bad press about the crash.
Those who profited most by manipulating the price to new, almost unbelievable highs, will profit most,
when they will buy back tons of cheap coins at the bottom. Bitcoin will rise again and they'll make huge profits.
And with all the good press, it's still going down for now, due to market supply and demand.
Think about what can happen when there will be bad press about the crash.
Those who profited most by manipulating the price to new, almost unbelievable highs, will profit most,
when they will buy back tons of cheap coins at the bottom. Bitcoin will rise again and they'll make huge profits.
After looking at the 2011 bubble charts, and the similarities with the current bubble popping, I am getting pessimistic.
That 2011 bubble took a long time to fully deflate, and when it did, it was at 15x less than the peak. I hope this one won't be as bad.
That 2011 bubble took a long time to fully deflate, and when it did, it was at 15x less than the peak. I hope this one won't be as bad.
Also, this bubble is not similar to 2011. 2011 lost 90% of its value in its first drop. Not even comparable.
I'm not saying that it will go that low, but it's possible. From the 10k coins seen in Gox order books, now there
are about 33k, and as holders will see the price not going up significantly, they might decide to sell more before
the price drops further, in a cascading effect. And then we may see multiple aborted new bubbles and capitulations.
are about 33k, and as holders will see the price not going up significantly, they might decide to sell more before
the price drops further, in a cascading effect. And then we may see multiple aborted new bubbles and capitulations.
Good grief. I've seen you post this kind of thing several times before. It simply flies in the face of logic.
One, who in their right mind is going to crash the market down that far?
Second, you completely fail to acknowledge the tremendous buying pressure at several support stops along the way. There are hundreds of millions of dollars sitting on the sidelines now that would KILL to buy at $60 and much higher.
After looking at the 2011 bubble charts, and the similarities with the current bubble popping, I am getting pessimistic.
That 2011 bubble took a long time to fully deflate, and when it did, it was at 15x less than the peak. I hope this one won't be as bad.
That 2011 bubble took a long time to fully deflate, and when it did, it was at 15x less than the peak. I hope this one won't be as bad.
You would have to give me much more than a technical case for why Bitcoin would wind up at $60. That would fly in the face of everything that has happened in the last 6 months. All the press, all the VC capital, all the Chinese, all the capital inflow, the higher cost of mining, and a hundred other bullish factors.
In 2011 Bitcoin was hardly a viable option or a blip on the radar. Today bitcoin is in front of congress.
Please explain how we go to $60?
I'm not saying that it will go that low, but it's possible. From the 10k coins seen in Gox order books, now there
are about 33k, and as holders will see the price not going up significantly, they might decide to sell more before
the price drops further, in a cascading effect. And then we may see multiple aborted new bubbles and capitulations.
are about 33k, and as holders will see the price not going up significantly, they might decide to sell more before
the price drops further, in a cascading effect. And then we may see multiple aborted new bubbles and capitulations.
After looking at the 2011 bubble charts, and the similarities with the current bubble popping, I am getting pessimistic.
That 2011 bubble took a long time to fully deflate, and when it did, it was at 15x less than the peak. I hope this one won't be as bad.
You mean less than $60? That will be scary, but in the same time wonderful if you want to increase your holding. That 2011 bubble took a long time to fully deflate, and when it did, it was at 15x less than the peak. I hope this one won't be as bad.
After looking at the 2011 bubble charts, and the similarities with the current bubble popping, I am getting pessimistic.
That 2011 bubble took a long time to fully deflate, and when it did, it was at 15x less than the peak. I hope this one won't be as bad.
That 2011 bubble took a long time to fully deflate, and when it did, it was at 15x less than the peak. I hope this one won't be as bad.
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