Topic: November 2013 Bubble Analysis - page 4. (Read 11424 times)
But where will we land? Back to $150 or a new level like $400?
If within 6 hours we'll see a head and shoulders pattern, then IMO the peak was today.
Countdown to the peak - China doubling faster
Using BTC China data presented by BitcoinWisdom, I observe these price doubling times ...
400 ¥ on July 5
800 ¥ on August 31 - 57 days to double
1600 ¥ on November 5 - 66 days to double
3200 ¥ on November 16 - 11 days to double
More convincing evidence that the peak is at most just days away.
Here is the logarithmic chart, which clearly looks parabolic ...
Using BTC China data presented by BitcoinWisdom, I observe these price doubling times ...
400 ¥ on July 5
800 ¥ on August 31 - 57 days to double
1600 ¥ on November 5 - 66 days to double
3200 ¥ on November 16 - 11 days to double
More convincing evidence that the peak is at most just days away.
Here is the logarithmic chart, which clearly looks parabolic ...
I concur with this analysis. I see this bubble popping within the next few days to a week
Excellent. Keep up the good work.
SS I agree with your analysis. I get the same feeling. And if you look at growing volatility with bolinger, that tends to confirm. We tend to drop after daily bars extend significantly outside. Sorry for the big chart.
We love charts in the Speculation forum. I have not paid much attention to the Bolinger technical indicator, and I really appreciate your insight regarding outliers as a signal.
Stick those in OP if you're making that sorta thread.
Done! And thank you very much.
SS I agree with your analysis. I get the same feeling. And if you look at growing volatility with bolinger, that tends to confirm. We tend to drop after daily bars extend significantly outside. Sorry for the big chart.
The 3 bubbles:
2011
April 2013
Now
Log & volume as currency:
2011: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2010-06-03zeg2011-06-03ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzcvzl
April: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zczsg2012-04-08zeg2013-04-08ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzcvzl
Now: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zczsg2012-11-24zeg2013-11-19ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzcvzl.
Stick those in OP if you're making that sorta thread.
2011
April 2013
Now
Log & volume as currency:
2011: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2010-06-03zeg2011-06-03ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzcvzl
April: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zczsg2012-04-08zeg2013-04-08ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzcvzl
Now: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zczsg2012-11-24zeg2013-11-19ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzcvzl.
Stick those in OP if you're making that sorta thread.
Countdown to the peak - Monday
Using MtGox USD daily prices, the Sunday open at 458 and close at 528 yields a daily increase of 15%. Likewise today's 618 high so far yields a potential daily increase of 17% with trading volume increasing.
The 1000 price milestone is only 61% higher from 618.
Using the two previous bubbles for guidance, these are signs that we are only days away from the peak.
Using MtGox USD daily prices, the Sunday open at 458 and close at 528 yields a daily increase of 15%. Likewise today's 618 high so far yields a potential daily increase of 17% with trading volume increasing.
The 1000 price milestone is only 61% higher from 618.
Using the two previous bubbles for guidance, these are signs that we are only days away from the peak.
I really think this are different this time around. The world of BTC is vastly different, and larger, than where it was at the last 2 bubbles.
I'm guessing a correction is coming but I do not expect this time around that there will be a huge crash, and I don't think we'll go under $200 again. I think the new bottom will be around $350. Anyone's guess. I do feel pretty confident though that even if you bought it today at 525 or whatever crazy price it's at, and you can be patient, you'll be able to sell it again for this price after this 'bubble' has come and left.
Especially with the Chinese loving BTC these days, and no more shackles to Can't-handle-the-transactions-gonna-crash Gox, the potential for a sharp quick price-plummet is not nearly as there as it was just 6 months ago.
I'm guessing a correction is coming but I do not expect this time around that there will be a huge crash, and I don't think we'll go under $200 again. I think the new bottom will be around $350. Anyone's guess. I do feel pretty confident though that even if you bought it today at 525 or whatever crazy price it's at, and you can be patient, you'll be able to sell it again for this price after this 'bubble' has come and left.
Especially with the Chinese loving BTC these days, and no more shackles to Can't-handle-the-transactions-gonna-crash Gox, the potential for a sharp quick price-plummet is not nearly as there as it was just 6 months ago.
Yes, the greatest error in my previous analysis of the April 2013 bubble was comparing it too closely to the one other bubble in June 2011. I agree that drawing comparisons too closely to April will bias predictions for this bubble. None the less, it took only 16 hours to go from $475 to $575 on MtGox. This is very similar in nature to what happened in the week leading up to both prior bubbles.
I really think this are different this time around. The world of BTC is vastly different, and larger, than where it was at the last 2 bubbles.
I'm guessing a correction is coming but I do not expect this time around that there will be a huge crash, and I don't think we'll go under $200 again. I think the new bottom will be around $350. Anyone's guess. I do feel pretty confident though that even if you bought it today at 525 or whatever crazy price it's at, and you can be patient, you'll be able to sell it again for this price after this 'bubble' has come and left.
Especially with the Chinese loving BTC these days, and no more shackles to Can't-handle-the-transactions-gonna-crash Gox, the potential for a sharp quick price-plummet is not nearly as there as it was just 6 months ago.
I'm guessing a correction is coming but I do not expect this time around that there will be a huge crash, and I don't think we'll go under $200 again. I think the new bottom will be around $350. Anyone's guess. I do feel pretty confident though that even if you bought it today at 525 or whatever crazy price it's at, and you can be patient, you'll be able to sell it again for this price after this 'bubble' has come and left.
Especially with the Chinese loving BTC these days, and no more shackles to Can't-handle-the-transactions-gonna-crash Gox, the potential for a sharp quick price-plummet is not nearly as there as it was just 6 months ago.
i'm far from being an expert to get the whole picture, but i read an interesting pdf on zerohedge today that draws a comparison to the longterm gold chart and microsoft shareprice.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-17/bitcoin-rises-over-500
pdf written by Raoul Pal, head of the Global Macro Investor.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-17/bitcoin-rises-over-500
pdf written by Raoul Pal, head of the Global Macro Investor.
I saw the original analysis, and I generally agree except to substitute the figure for investment gold bullion for the valuation of the world's total gold, the latter having jewelry and industrial uses which bitcoin cannot match.
I agree there will be another drop sometime before the end of the year, though how high will it go in the mean time is what I am wondering. I may not be able to buy bitcoin at these prices again even with a drop.
But if this is following the S-curve adoption rate of new technologies isn't there a point in which the price just shoots up without any "correction?" Bitcoin is not a stock and will not act like stocks do necessarily.
i'm far from being an expert to get the whole picture, but i read an interesting pdf on zerohedge today that draws a comparison to the longterm gold chart and microsoft shareprice.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-17/bitcoin-rises-over-500
pdf written by Raoul Pal, head of the Global Macro Investor.
I'm sorry but I can't take you seriously if you're still using Mt. Gox prices. It's well known that Mt. Gox has inflated prices (pre-dating the bubble) due to the fact that fiat withdrawals are limited/impossible. Start using Bitstamp or an average of different exchanges (exlcuding Mt. Gox) for a much more accurate price.
I am sympathetic to your viewpoint, but my analysis back in April 2013 used MtGox prices. I suggest that MtGox has a proportional relationship with USD prices posted on BitStamp. Furthermore, the greater potential error in my analysis is not using BTC China data as that exchange is obviously responsible for the current price action.
I'm sorry but I can't take you seriously if you're still using Mt. Gox prices. It's well known that Mt. Gox has inflated prices (pre-dating the bubble) due to the fact that fiat withdrawals are limited/impossible. Start using Bitstamp or an average of different exchanges (exlcuding Mt. Gox) for a much more accurate price.
But if this is following the S-curve adoption rate of new technologies isn't there a point in which the price just shoots up without any "correction?" Bitcoin is not a stock and will not act like stocks do necessarily.
My logistic (S-Curve) adoption analysis over on rpietila's economics thread is about a multi-year price prediction neglecting, or rather smoothing out the bubbles. I hope, but do not yet expect, that future bubbles will become smaller and more frequent.
But if this is following the S-curve adoption rate of new technologies isn't there a point in which the price just shoots up without any "correction?" Bitcoin is not a stock and will not act like stocks do necessarily.
Maybe the time is now, probably it isn't. I agree there will be another drop sometime before the end of the year, though how high will it go in the mean time is what I am wondering. I may not be able to buy bitcoin at these prices again even with a drop.
In the April 2013 bubble collapse, it was possible to buy at under 30% of the peak price - either with great timing or as I did with a spread of pre-positioned limit buy orders. If the peak indeed is above $1000 I believe that prices after the collapse could likely be below where we are now, i.e. below $568.
I am not trading this bubble, rather I may buy a few more coins after the collapse.
I agree there will be another drop sometime before the end of the year, though how high will it go in the mean time is what I am wondering. I may not be able to buy bitcoin at these prices again even with a drop.
But if this is following the S-curve adoption rate of new technologies isn't there a point in which the price just shoots up without any "correction?" Bitcoin is not a stock and will not act like stocks do necessarily.
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