Now we have 750,000 less bitcoins in circulation ?

solex

legendary

Activity: 1078

Merit: 1006

100 satoshis -> ISO code

Quote from: Peter R on March 05, 2014, 12:18:12 PM

Quote from: Siegfried on March 05, 2014, 07:13:07 AM

Quote from: antimattercrusader on March 04, 2014, 03:36:56 PM

Has it been confirmed that they were not all stolen at once recently and thus sitting in on someone with unknown intention's wallet?

I hope it was stolen by many over time, or lost, or anything but above... but was wondering if there is an update I have not heard?

I think this convincingly argues that the biggest part of this theft must have happened long ago.

http://falkvinge.net/2014/02/28/the-gox-crater-crowd-detectives-reveal-billion-dollar-heist-as-inside-job/

I wrote up what I thought happened in narrative form here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/peter-r-rizuns-theory-on-the-collapse-of-mtgox-and-its-effect-on-the-price-of-bitcoin-497289 and it shares similarities with the falkvinge article. I think most of the coins were already gone sometime around June 2011.

I liked your write-up Peter, but what happened to the 424242 coins. Are they still largely untouched?

Peter R

legendary

Activity: 1162

Merit: 1007

Quote from: Siegfried on March 05, 2014, 07:13:07 AM

Quote from: antimattercrusader on March 04, 2014, 03:36:56 PM

Has it been confirmed that they were not all stolen at once recently and thus sitting in on someone with unknown intention's wallet?

I hope it was stolen by many over time, or lost, or anything but above... but was wondering if there is an update I have not heard?

I think this convincingly argues that the biggest part of this theft must have happened long ago.

http://falkvinge.net/2014/02/28/the-gox-crater-crowd-detectives-reveal-billion-dollar-heist-as-inside-job/

I wrote up what I thought happened in narrative form here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/peter-r-rizuns-theory-on-the-collapse-of-mtgox-and-its-effect-on-the-price-of-bitcoin-497289 and it shares similarities with the falkvinge article. I think most of the coins were already gone sometime around June 2011.

Siegfried

sr. member

Activity: 266

Merit: 250

Quote from: antimattercrusader on March 04, 2014, 03:36:56 PM

Has it been confirmed that they were not all stolen at once recently and thus sitting in on someone with unknown intention's wallet?

I hope it was stolen by many over time, or lost, or anything but above... but was wondering if there is an update I have not heard?

I think this convincingly argues that the biggest part of this theft must have happened long ago.

http://falkvinge.net/2014/02/28/the-gox-crater-crowd-detectives-reveal-billion-dollar-heist-as-inside-job/

gollum

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 250

In Hashrate We Trust!

Quote from: zeroday on February 28, 2014, 09:45:52 PM

People paid real money for fake bitcoins. I suppose gox still has loads of fiat on their bank accounts. Isn't it?

And people lost their real money as well, so they have lost some of their purchasing power.
Some people had huge amounts of dollars or bitcoins at mtgox, purchasing power that is gone now.
Even if they want to buy the same amount of "real" bitcoin they have to work hard and save dollars to buy bitcoin again, it takes time.

antimattercrusader

sr. member

Activity: 308

Merit: 250

Has it been confirmed that they were not all stolen at once recently and thus sitting in on someone with unknown intention's wallet?

I hope it was stolen by many over time, or lost, or anything but above... but was wondering if there is an update I have not heard?

Rygon

hero member

Activity: 520

Merit: 500

Quote from: zeroday on February 28, 2014, 09:38:33 PM

Quote from: hostmaster on February 28, 2014, 09:31:53 PM

Quote from: zeroday on February 28, 2014, 09:26:22 PM

If Gox tells us truth, it means that there were up to 1.75M of phantom non existing bitcoins circulating in active trade during recent years.
Now they are vanished and we only have real existing bitcoins on exchanges (I hope).

Guess what would happen to the price soon?

I think they will not put bitcoins soon they will wait and slowly put these stolen Bitcoins to market.

I mean that coins were stolen long time ago and were probably already cashed out.
The point is that Gox traded virtual non-existing coins and now bitcoin market is notably contracted. There is much less coins for sale than it was expected a few weeks ago.

Totally agree. The question isn't whether or not there will be an impact on the market due to this fractional reserve collapse, but how big the impact will be. Even if all those coins weren't up for trade at the moment Gox went down, they were still considered available by the owners to pay for life's little expenses like lawyers and plane tickets to fly to Japan and protest.

The owners of a majority of those coins are in a tough spot, since we can assume at least a certain percentage will want to buy back into bitcoin while prices are still relatively low compared to a few weeks ago. I think we are seeing the beginning of that trend now as fiat transfers arrive. The market is now even more vulnerable to manipulation though, which should scare bulls and bears.

Grinder

legendary

Activity: 1284

Merit: 1001

Quote from: Frankie on March 01, 2014, 01:40:22 PM

For that reason, I wouldn't expect a large proportion of Gox account-held-BTC owners to rebuy. They're not going to think "damn it, the $200 in coins I bought 2 years ago could have bought me a new car--now I'm going to chase after $500 BTC!" They'd probably think more along the lines of "easy come, easy go." That's certainly what I would have done if I hadn't withdrawn almost all my goxBTC in late January.

If they thought like that it means they were going to sell them, which would push the price downwards. Their loss translates into a higher bitcoin price even if they don't rebuy.

derpinheimer

legendary

Activity: 896

Merit: 1000

Quote from: xandriel on March 01, 2014, 04:57:40 PM

According to some reports 100,000 of the coins belong to Gox, and 345,000 belonged to Mark.
It is a nice thought that they stuffed themselves...if it were true

My ass he owned 345k bitcoin and didnt do anything with him

If he did.. wow.

xandriel

sr. member

Activity: 586

Merit: 251

According to some reports 100,000 of the coins belong to Gox, and 345,000 belonged to Mark.
It is a nice thought that they stuffed themselves...if it were true

Frankie

full member

Activity: 206

Merit: 100

Quote from: Zarathustra on March 01, 2014, 03:17:30 AM

Quote from: Peter R on March 01, 2014, 02:39:45 AM

Quote from: MAbtc on March 01, 2014, 01:59:43 AM

750k is not inconceivable. What is inconceivable is that a significant portion of those "coins" were highly liquid. I agree that if the numbers are that high, it is largely in part due to the use of Gox as a web wallet. The fact that Gox was an exchange is not evidence in and of itself that all coins held there were readily available on the market. Just take a look at the order books -- it puts things in perspective.

If only a smaller fraction of these coins were liquid (say, 100k), then the remaining 650k were for holding, presumably using Gox as a wallet.

I still can't imagine that 6% of all coins have been held at gox, at a time when everybody should have known for month what kind of company they are dealing with.

I dunno, speaking as someone who bought my few coins at about $5, and didn't bother to withdraw remaining loose change at Gox and other exchanges, then ignored bitcoin for a year, it wouldn't surprise me if many of Gox's customers bought some coins for fun/drugs years ago, and haven't really paid attention to how flaky Mt.Gox has been.

For that reason, I wouldn't expect a large proportion of Gox account-held-BTC owners to rebuy. They're not going to think "damn it, the $200 in coins I bought 2 years ago could have bought me a new car--now I'm going to chase after $500 BTC!" They'd probably think more along the lines of "easy come, easy go." That's certainly what I would have done if I hadn't withdrawn almost all my goxBTC in late January.

cr1776

legendary

Activity: 4214

Merit: 1313

Quote from: Zarathustra on March 01, 2014, 03:17:30 AM

Quote from: Peter R on March 01, 2014, 02:39:45 AM

Quote from: MAbtc on March 01, 2014, 01:59:43 AM

750k is not inconceivable. What is inconceivable is that a significant portion of those "coins" were highly liquid. I agree that if the numbers are that high, it is largely in part due to the use of Gox as a web wallet. The fact that Gox was an exchange is not evidence in and of itself that all coins held there were readily available on the market. Just take a look at the order books -- it puts things in perspective.

If only a smaller fraction of these coins were liquid (say, 100k), then the remaining 650k were for holding, presumably using Gox as a wallet.

I still can't imagine that 6% of all coins have been held at gox, at a time when everybody should have known for month what kind of company they are dealing with.

I am surprised people didn't know better too - but think about the number of coins kept at mining pools when for years there have been examples of pools having the wallets emptied or going bust due to bugs. And yet, miners still keep BTC at the pools! They should at least have an auto-payout at 0.1 BTC or use instant payout pools.

:-)

edit: e.g. bitclockers, slush (vps web host inside job they thought), Hashcows etc...it has been an ongoing problem for years.

fatnlovelyfred

member

Activity: 63

Merit: 10

How 750,000 butcoins can just vanish? If it is a hack and someone has tolen it then there is someone who now own it and probably in future he'll use it. Maybe it's a time to try to figure out (I don't know how exactly) who is the new master of the coins? Maybe he'll show himself by using his coins and we'll see it in blockchain ?

MAbtc

hero member

Activity: 826

Merit: 508

Quote from: Peter R on March 01, 2014, 02:39:45 AM

Quote from: MAbtc on March 01, 2014, 01:59:43 AM

750k is not inconceivable. What is inconceivable is that a significant portion of those "coins" were highly liquid. I agree that if the numbers are that high, it is largely in part due to the use of Gox as a web wallet. The fact that Gox was an exchange is not evidence in and of itself that all coins held there were readily available on the market. Just take a look at the order books -- it puts things in perspective.

If only a smaller fraction of these coins were liquid (say, 100k), then the remaining 650k were for holding, presumably using Gox as a wallet.

Now these holders are no longer holding. So I would imagine that some of them would purchase new coins to replace the ones they thought they had. If we imagine that even 20% would be replaced with new purchases, then this represents an additional demand for 130k coins.

Do you agree?

Specifics are very difficult, but generally, sure. Now the question is how that is mitigated by the latter two points I raised earlier. This doesn't happen in a vacuum.

EuroTrash

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 500

Quote from: Zarathustra on March 01, 2014, 03:17:30 AM

Quote from: Peter R on March 01, 2014, 02:39:45 AM

Quote from: MAbtc on March 01, 2014, 01:59:43 AM

750k is not inconceivable. What is inconceivable is that a significant portion of those "coins" were highly liquid. I agree that if the numbers are that high, it is largely in part due to the use of Gox as a web wallet. The fact that Gox was an exchange is not evidence in and of itself that all coins held there were readily available on the market. Just take a look at the order books -- it puts things in perspective.

If only a smaller fraction of these coins were liquid (say, 100k), then the remaining 650k were for holding, presumably using Gox as a wallet.

I still can't imagine that 6% of all coins have been held at gox, at a time when everybody should have known for month what kind of company they are dealing with.

You'd be surprised. Until April 2013 I kept a good amount of coins in Gox. A workmate of mine has all of his stash on Stamp as of today.

Zarathustra

legendary

Activity: 1162

Merit: 1004

Quote from: Peter R on March 01, 2014, 02:39:45 AM

Quote from: MAbtc on March 01, 2014, 01:59:43 AM

750k is not inconceivable. What is inconceivable is that a significant portion of those "coins" were highly liquid. I agree that if the numbers are that high, it is largely in part due to the use of Gox as a web wallet. The fact that Gox was an exchange is not evidence in and of itself that all coins held there were readily available on the market. Just take a look at the order books -- it puts things in perspective.

If only a smaller fraction of these coins were liquid (say, 100k), then the remaining 650k were for holding, presumably using Gox as a wallet.

I still can't imagine that 6% of all coins have been held at gox, at a time when everybody should have known for month what kind of company they are dealing with.

Peter R

legendary

Activity: 1162

Merit: 1007

Quote from: MAbtc on March 01, 2014, 01:59:43 AM

750k is not inconceivable. What is inconceivable is that a significant portion of those "coins" were highly liquid. I agree that if the numbers are that high, it is largely in part due to the use of Gox as a web wallet. The fact that Gox was an exchange is not evidence in and of itself that all coins held there were readily available on the market. Just take a look at the order books -- it puts things in perspective.

If only a smaller fraction of these coins were liquid (say, 100k), then the remaining 650k were for holding, presumably using Gox as a wallet.

Now these holders are no longer holding. So I would imagine that some of them would purchase new coins to replace the ones they thought they had. If we imagine that even 20% would be replaced with new purchases, then this represents an additional demand for 130k coins.

Do you agree?

MAbtc

hero member

Activity: 826

Merit: 508

750k is not inconceivable. What is inconceivable is that a significant portion of those "coins" were highly liquid. I agree that if the numbers are that high, it is largely in part due to the use of Gox as a web wallet. The fact that Gox was an exchange is not evidence in and of itself that all coins held there were readily available on the market. Just take a look at the order books -- it puts things in perspective.

GambleX

member

Activity: 70

Merit: 10

GambleX Exchange/Gambling

Quote from: Peter R on March 01, 2014, 12:36:39 AM

Quote from: MAbtc on March 01, 2014, 12:02:05 AM

A few things I've been pondering:

1) The entirety of the "coins" were not liquid. In fact, a small fraction were. Take a look at Gox's order book. 39k to $1 billion. Yes, that's not the full story, but to suggest that 750k coins were available on the market to begin with is absurd.
2) Presumably a majority of fiat on Gox was intended to be invested in BTC (as opposed to being withdrawn as fiat). That's a very considerable sum of fiat lost specifically by those with the ability to drive price performance.
3) While the markets can easily be moved by whales, the average investor is necessary to push up price past a certain point. What kind of fallout could we see from the Gox closure, in terms of "fresh fiat"? What time frames are we all talking about here?

I questioned the 750,000 BTC figure too. It seems an order of magnitude greater than I imagined. For this to be true, I must assume that a great deal of investors were using MtGox as a wallet. MtGox had 1 million customers, right? Stick 750mBTC in each account and you get to 750,000 BTC, so it's not inconceivable.

They had 1kk customers, but only 120.000 accounts were funded. Source: Every news coverage today (so might be bogus number)

F-bernanke

sr. member

Activity: 308

Merit: 250

Quote from: Peter R on February 28, 2014, 10:05:05 PM

Quote from: zeroday on February 28, 2014, 09:38:33 PM

Quote from: hostmaster on February 28, 2014, 09:31:53 PM

Quote from: zeroday on February 28, 2014, 09:26:22 PM

If Gox tells us truth, it means that there were up to 1.75M of phantom non existing bitcoins circulating in active trade during recent years.
Now they are vanished and we only have real existing bitcoins on exchanges (I hope).

Guess what would happen to the price soon?

I think they will not put bitcoins soon they will wait and slowly put these stolen Bitcoins to market.

I mean that coins were stolen long time ago and were probably already cashed out.
The point is that Gox traded virtual non-existing coins and now bitcoin market is notably contracted. There is much less coins for sale than it was expected a few weeks ago.

I completely agree with you, zeroday. I don't think many people have wrapped their minds around the implications if this theory turns out to be true.

It's funny because if a new found stash of 750,000 BTC was likely to be hitting the market, we'd have people saying that bitcoin was going to crash back to double digits. If the opposite is true, and you have a sudden demand spike for 750,000 BTC (or even a quarter of that), it could really move the market too--in the upwards direction.

Exacty, I have been trying to explain this yesterday, but a lot of people just don't understand.

There were a total of 12 million BTC + 750.000 (gox) BTC in existence, so a total of close to 13 million.

Now the fake 750.000 coins are gone, and we are back to 12 million coins in existance, the total supply just shrunk by 6%.

Also a very important factor to consider is that those 750.000 coins were higly LIQUID, because they were at an exchange, ready to be traded/sold, not in cold storage to be kept for a very long time.

The supply of liquid coins is most important for price discovery.

damiano

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1000

103 days, 21 hours and 10 minutes.

Quote from: solex on March 01, 2014, 12:46:50 AM

Quote from: zeroday on February 28, 2014, 09:26:22 PM

If Gox tells us truth,

Stop! I think I have found the flaw in this argument.

lol

Topic: Now we have 750,000 less bitcoins in circulation ? (Read 3365 times)