You get the fee for that transaction back, since you are forging it yourself. So absolutely no risk in that part.
This is incorrect. If ur block is orphaned then ur transaction will be forged by other account.
Valid point, let's change that part a little:
There is a small chance that you'll loose 100,000 NXT for setting up the small accounts and another 100,000 is bound to those, and of course the 1 NXT for the big transfer.
This reduces your forging chance to ~0.99 %. (~0.98 % for the budget used in attempting the increased forging chance)
And the cost for any further attempt on doing the same is just 1NXT at a small chance.
That doesn't change a lot in the methodology, actually, it's statistically irrelevant.
Now, in 25% of the cases, your NXT will just be in one "random" account, and since you couldn't predict that, your chance of forging the next block remains at 1/100.
But in 75% of the cases, you NXT actually act like 100,000 unique accounts, since you can move it to whichever of your accounts has the best chance to make the block. So actually, you suddenly have 100,000 accounts with each a 1/100 chance, i.e. a pretty much guaranteed block.In the end, by doing some free transactions and taking no risk, we increased our forging chance from 1% to about 75%... Nice
Where am I wrong?
Bolded part doesn't look legit. could u paraphrase it?
Ok, let's start with the 25% part:
You transfered NXT into some account. This account has a forging probability of 0.98%. Nothing changes, all is well. (I really don't know, what more I can say for this situation as that one is the trivial one)
Now for the interesting 75% part:
You can calculate in advance, which nonce each of your accounts would have and then choose the best one. So statistically speaking, all your accounts are behaving like accounts with your 0.98% stake in them. And you can freely choose between any of the 100.000 accounts in advance, already knowing the nonce. The chance that one of them has a nonce so good that it's better than all the others is extremely high: If you'd (theoretically speaking) combine all of those 100,000 accounts with 0.98% stake each, you have a stake of 98,000 % (yes, I know, that's more than 100%, but that's the whole point of having the prior knowledge
). So the total stake of the currency for that next block becomes 98,000 % (you) + 99.02 % (others) = 98,099.02 %. Which means, you suddenly own nearly 99.9 % of the stake and have the respective chance of forging that block.
So with that methodology, we have a forging chance of 25%*0.98%+75%*99.9% = 75.17 %.