So, at .99^68 we have a 50% chance of predicting which one of our accounts will mine the 68th block from now.
No. 99% is just a guess. We'll get the real number after I analyze the blockchain.
Ok, so the question is: How good can you predict 1 block into the future when you are currently forging a block. This should be quite high, because most big accounts will be forging (they'd loose out on a lot of coins if they didn't).
I'm not sure, if you can tell with 99%, but let's say you can tell with 75% accuracy.
You put your big trancaction into the block that you are currently forging. You don't announce the transaction to your peers, so that it only happens, if your block is really chosen. You get the fee for that transaction back, since you are forging it yourself. So absolutely no risk in that part.
So by how much can you influence your chances? How many accounts can you chose from? They all need to have had a transfer to them at least 1440 blocks ago. You can make those transfers without paying fees if you do it like the big transfer, you just might have to wait a bit until you can generate a block. Say, you generate 100.000 accounts like that. (You can even get the 1 NXT that you had to send out again using the method described above)
Now what does that do to you chances?
Say, you have 1% total stake (i.e. 10.000.000 NXT), making you number 24 at the moment.
Your chance of forging the next block should be around 1/100, right?
Now, in 25% of the cases, your NXT will just be in one "random" account, and since you couldn't predict that, your chance of forging the next block remains at 1/100.
But in 75% of the cases, you NXT actually act like 100.000 unique accounts, since you can move it to whichever of your accounts has the best chance to make the block. So actually, you suddenly have 100.000 accounts with each a 1/100 chance, i.e. a pretty much guaranteed block.
In the end, by doing some free transactions and taking no risk, we increased our forging chance from 1% to about 75%... Nice
Where am I wrong?