If I remember correctly, NEM was going to clone NXT first, but then they changed plans to write code from scratch. Is that so? If that is so, just take a look at how long it takes for NXT to smooth out all bugs and to deliver. Writing code from scratch is a tantamount effort. If NEM is going to undertake that, it won't be sooner than end of 2014 that it delivers a product comparable to NXT, if at all. By that time NXT will be waaaayyyy ahead in adoption and websites infrastructure, underlying services, etc. NEM is just vaporware for now, only plans and words. Yes, I am stating the obvious, but apparently someone doesn't quite understand the obvious.
Bang-on. Granted that there are times when the first-mover advantage erodes, but that's usually because the new entrant has a compelling advantage over the first mover. PayPal left eGold in the dust because a large majority of people preferred the mighty greenback to gold. Google was simpler and easier to use. IBM-compatible PCs made Apple an also-ran because IBM was shrewd enough to welcome clones - although that decision might well have been prompted by the in-house antitrust lawyers recommending an open approach. [IBM was sued for antitrust violations by the Justice Department just after New Year's in 1969, and the case was still pending when IBM moved into PCs.]
So what is NEM's compelling application? What shrewd plan does NEM have to overcome NXT's clear lead tech-wise? Sorry, but "fair distribution" isn't enough. That's a moral claim: in this sad old practical world, it'll only be compelling to moralists and people who are afraid of being envied. At best, NEM will be Apple to NXT's IBM. There'll be a vibrant fanboi culture supporting NEM, but that's all.
Actually, the fanboi circuit will be enough to keep NEM going. Apple fanbois kept Apple viable even in its darkest days. I actually hope that NEM will be the Apple to NXT's PC because one cyber can't be everything to everyone. Being in second does grant more freedom to be experimental. But, unless something really changes, NEM's fate is to be the alternative, not the standard, choice in the cyber-2.0 world.
Of course, once both gain traction, there'll always be the disappointed eMunie circuit saying to anyone who'll listen that eMunie thought of it first.