Topic: Official BITMINE CoinCraft series 28nm ASIC miners thread - page 161. (Read 565240 times)

Well that's the thing, if everyone ONLY bought and held, and no one were mining, the whole system would collapse.

All those BTC hoarders indirectly NEED more and more people to start mining, because that's what's needed to grow and strengthen the Bitcoin Network, and to raise the value.

BTC miners are like the "canary in the coalmine" , demonstrating for the whole world how hard (and therefor valuable) it is to get to those bitcoins.


So EVERYTHING rises or falls depending on those miners.
So I respect them, they are the ones who do all the work.

Often you hear people say that it is STUPID to buy a miner, but I wholeheartedly disagree.

I look at the miners as some form of voluntary hardware contribution to this large "mesh network" with the goal to make the central banking system we have obsolete.
Everyone who buys and runs a miner helps to facilitate and strengthen the system. SOMEONE HAS TO DO THIS. Should only big banks do this? Is this what this all will lead to?

anybody who has a date of shipping ?

Bullshit. You mine for profit. You sell your coins for fiat, gold, crackers, whatever. Both are valid metrics, and neither are mutually exclusive.

No asic manufacturer is going to guarantee your returns, as they cannot. If they say they are, RUN, Do Not Walk, away from that scam.

Also, there is something in the mind of a miner that loves the game, which is in itself a profit. Yes, historically and probably in the future, buying and holding will make MORE profit. But it's just not the same. Cheap beer will get you drunk, but it's not Fat Tire. Ya know?

I think there is none

Thanks P. for the correction, fixed that in the post.

I did not notice since I used similar increase factors for both parameters, resulting in same results with correct and wrong formula.

..that should be clock * voltage²

This. I want a miner because I want BTC to succeed.

Aslong as they generate more money than they consume energy,  I will let the machine run.

What do you say? How will I get back my ROI?

Depends how much I payed for the bitcoins, and when exactly I sold them to bitmine.

Some guys were lucky. :-)
Some guys should have better kept their BTC. I am sorry for them. :-(

I don't think this is an "Ohh No" situation at least it shouldn't be, if you are playing this game.

BTC /USD cost predicates vs cost of electricity everything.
If BTC drops to 0 then mining will not be profitable, unless the impossible condition of getting paid to use electricity comes around.

any graph projecting computational hash rate to continue increasing exponentially is laughable.

As mentioned in another posting here - the TOTAL amount of electricity required to power TOTAL hashing, at some point, becomes cost prohibitive.
I'm no genius, but as some point before that, consumers stop buying miners and at some point before that, manufacturers stop producing 'consumer'  miners.

BTC value MUST* increase in order for mining, mining manufacturing to be viable.

*this is after 20nm or smaller manufacturing viability.

Difficulty and hashing will tap out - continuous expansion is not economically sustainable.

SMART Manufacturers know this and are:
1. sending public messages out to other manufacturers letting them know that manufacturing cannot continue indefinitely
2. building data centers for mining... this will be the only place mining will take place, perhaps at 20nm.. perhaps at 16 or 14 (16's half-node).. by which point the average joe will be locked out of mining (should btc continue to increase in value).

If you believe in BTC, grab a miner, or buy BTC.

I think 28's may have a longer life than many think - and may, in fact be more valuable.
20's even longer, and more valuable... if you can get your hands on one.

I don't understand why this even matters to you.  Even if you believe everything they are saying if you didn't pre-order one of these machines months and months ago you can't get one anyway.

Thanks - I've corrected it. Sometimes I should properly read the output of my calculator^^
And you are right about the 20% that currently lead to roughly 4500 BTC issued by coinbase transactions each day...
But the stable hash rate was just one of the assumptions. There are lots more and I strongly recommend to use this caluculation rather for getting a feeling for the dimensions than to nail me down on the exact numbers

yea, we all know that now. but can't go back in time.

So are you saying 2.8(TH/s)@3kW as advertised for the rig is not possible?

Allow me to add some numbers to the operational cost.
Currently the Bitcoin network has a total hash rate of approximately 20 PH/s (=20.000.000 GH/s).
Assuming that all mining devices did only consume 1J/GH or 1 Watt/GH/s (which is not true as thera are lots of less energy efficient devices in the field), this would result in a total electric power of 20 MW.
Assuming further that these 20 MW generate no additional costs (e.g. for cooling), they'd still sum up to 480 MWh each day.
Given a price of 0.15 USD/kWh or 150 USD/MWh this leads to operational costs of (I can safely say at least due to the optimistic assumptions)
150 USD/MWh * 480 MWh = 72.000 USD.
If my math isn't broken sustaining the current network hash rate costs roughly 72.000 USD per day
At the same time there are (assumption: stable hash rate) approximately 3600 BTC generated per day. At current exchange price of roughly 650 USD/BTC the value of the daily generate BTC is ~ 2.340.000 USD.

That's why there is still hope for getting ROI by buying and operating mining devices

Why are most of you getting nervous?? Is it because of the low BTC price?? I think if we had 1000 USD per BTC you would be much cooler.

Every company delivering miners on the market has delays. KNC, Cointerra, Bitmine etc. This is normal if you ordering special maschines. If a company would order a special construction maschine it could be delayed, if you order a car it could be delayed. I´m still waiting for my cointerras. So what? It is normal...

I think Bitmine has the best customer protection at the moment. KNCs Plan B could also be good, but I don´t know how they would build these much miners to compensate a late delivery for all Neptune customers. Of course a company could get bankrupt. Every company could get bankrupt, even Apple. So this is normal. If you getting in touch with BTC Business you need to have titanium cojones. Like if you trading future contracts on the exchanges. If you don´t have them you are wrong. If you don´t have the money or if you need a credit for this you are absolutely wrong!!! Sorry for this, but it´s true. ("Who has a lot of money, can speculate.
Who has little money, must not speculate. Who has no money, has to speculate." - Andre Kostolany)

And why don´t you order at KNC, Cointerra and Bitmine at the same time and hedging. If one is delayed or one company would get bankrupt you would have your miners from the other companys. Or just buy in-hand-miners if you don´t want to have any risk? But you have to pay much more for these then doing a pre-order.

BTC and buying miners is like every other investment or buying. You always have a risk. If you don´t want to have this go to your local bank and get a bankbook.

Nice post. I wish I could type that fast. And think that fast in English. Google translate isn't helping much.

Operational cost.
Just electricity requirements for a 10000 petahash network with ASICs at 1J/GHash (even KNC announced 20nm chip isn't much better) is 10GW. Take $0.15/KWh, BTC has to be over $10'000 to cover this.

I admit that I'm neither happy with that delay (and strangely I still hope to get my miner) nor with most part of the communication by bitmine.ch.
Nevertheless I don't want to leave the expectations about difficulty increase uncommented.
A continuous increase by a fixed percentage can't seriously be expected for an unlimited time.

This has several reasons. The conceptual reason is that there can't be unlimited growth in limited environments.

To give a more practical reason: the initial cost per hashrate and the operation cost of miners limit the growth. We are still in a phase of tremendous technological progress. But the bitmine products might be close enough to future products (in terms of initial and operating cost) that very soon the incentive for buying BTC at exchanges will be even higher than it is right now.

This will limit the hash rate growth.

Another reason that will limit the hash rate growth is the fact that you can't sustain a fixed percentage in growth by adding fixed amounts of hash rate. I know that the hash rate growth still is not linear, but it is likely to transform to linear growth if any.
When I purchased my miner at bitmine in October 2013 I asked myself whether it'd be better off to purchase BTC instead. The hope for a better return by purchasing this miner lead me to the buy. I knew about the risks. I made the wrong decision. Even if it had been delivered on time, I might have been better off buying BTC.
People buy miners and crypto currencies because of several reasons. One is to make profit.
This will have an effect on the hash rate growth.

It will become harder and harder to make profit by purchasing and operating mining devices.

Or to say it clearly and precisely:
It will become more and more obvious that making profit with hardware might be limited to the manufacturers, sellers, resellers and electric energy suppliers.

Which gives me (little in fact, but who knows...) hope, that once the bitmine devices are delivered and given the power-save mode works as announced (while the turbo mode isn't...), these miners might be able to run for a while.
The hash rate will not grow by 20% each 11.2 days forever, but nobody knows when and how much it slows down.

I don't expect BTC ROI. For that each of the 200 GH/s blades had to make more than 10 BTC.
But I'm still hoping for USD ROI. That might be possible - especially if the BTC prices rises

I did calculations for this year until december. The last jumps were about 20% each. I cannot see why this should stop or decrease. What makes you hope that diff will not increase with these steps? KNC datacenters around the globe a.s.o.

20% per 11 days? Your calc ended with 10'000 petahash of total network hashrate in december? Now it's at 20.

Miners mine btc, not fiat.

For all customers in March batch its the same. They will not be able to make any profit.

I did calculations and it shows me 2.8 BTC until the end of the year (excluded electricity) with a 600GHs CoinDesk and difficulty increase of 20% per 11 day timeframe.

Invest : 3.500$
Mining : 2.800$ (with BTC at value 1000$!)

So if bitmine will not compensate this, every customer will make a big loss...;-(