Topic: Official BITMINE CoinCraft series 28nm ASIC miners thread - page 221. (Read 565240 times)

Yes, there will be our reference design too but a lot more will be available from community users once our board development contest will start in the next few days, everything will be open source.

back of napkin count?

Are you going to be providing a reference design for your chips, or just the spec sheet?

Thanks

You're missing that $160/BTC was hit today, and that fact invalidated all of your just mentioned theory and calculations.

That's the amazing part of the Bitcoin world, it's just soooooo much unpredictable!  

I can do that too. For only $25!
Well, you know, 12.5 BTC.

My S2 is still good enough. Besides if I had to choose some smartphone now it would be LG G2.

Bets are already placed and counting... very interesting times ahead ...and more bets coming. Insane situation, but some will eventually end up with more btc/xbt in hand than others - as usual.

Interested in buying a brand new samsung galaxy S4 for only $20 ?
=10BTC

That's delusion more than psychology! No offense, of course, since I've made the same mistake with BFSB august kit..

But fool me once... as they say.

spiccioli

It's simple psychology. I've started mining over 2 years ago. I was mining when bitcoin cost was 2$. Now I have some BTC and if I want to sell them I would have so much cash that I never had in my hand (and account). But it's easy for me to spent 1BTC in bitcoin casino becuse it's worth 2$ for me….. Not 160...

AFAIK, this bitmine chip is (on paper) the most efficient one (not yet) out there. While IM no believer of ROI at current hardware prices, its equally unthinkable this chip will not be operationally profitable next May. If this chip isnt, nothing is; and I cant believe that so many miners would continue deploying and running their miners at an operational loss, not just an overall loss.

Therefore, your network growth scenario is simply wrong. I also do expect to see a few more months of exponential (more or less doubling) growth, but not 6 let alone 12 months.

Whether or not the chip will ever earn itself back, will depend almost entirely on bitcoin price (and yes I know, holding is wiser) and on how long you intend to keep running more efficiently than the network. If you cant run more efficiently, ie with less electricity cost than the network, then you never will. If you can, it may take many years, but eventually it will pay back its investment, unless significantly more efficient chips get deployed.

Please continue your thoughts and elaborate - how are you going to end up with more bitcoins at the end than what you currently have?

Well,  you forgot something. Many miners that buys that equipment have bitcoins from times when it was cost them 2$ to mine. Now they spent 20BTC with blink of an eye. So only cost of power is what they matters. Rest is profit.

With so many new players and manufacturers entering the market that peak will not happen in the next few months. Therefore the question for us is "spend money in advance now" and "hope you get ROI" (maybe, eventually). Doesn't sound quite exciting to be honest.

I think it would be a very safe presumption to say that difficulty will NOT stop growing exponentially in the next 3-6 months.

I've run some statistics - the utopia and most optimistic scenario: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/6db1ddb7b8
- 40GH starting from Jan/1 (good luck with that - especially when chips won't be here before Christmas, which is right when everyone is on vacation)
- free electricity, free chips, free equipment, free shipping, etc - the working device is a complete gift
- difficulty increase: 100%/month (even though the average for the last few months has been 120-130% and the only major competitors were Avalon, BFL and Bitfury; a reminder that BFL is still building their 200TH mine and Avalon and BFL are shipping next-gen chips, plus you now have a whole lot more players interested in the same cake)
- $160/BTC exchange rate
= Result: $88 in the chip's lifetime (it will make the last dollar in 7 months)
= Chip will make about 90% of its total lifetime revenue in the first 3 months - $77.

If you add just electricity - at 40GH and 1W/GH (e.g. 40W) at $0.15 residential rate the result is peak at $66 in 4 months. At 25GH (15W) the peak is $44. (and that's again just chips using power and an ideal power supply that does 100% ideal conversion and doesn't use any power)

With something a bit more realistic (still start Jan/1 and free chips and electricity and mining) - difficulty at 130%/mo and $140/BTC : http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/2f0bdc739c
= The result is $45 in the chip's lifetime
With electricity at 40GH the peak is $28 on the second month - http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/0e882ac919
and at 25GH the peak is $21 in 3 months - http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/772959bdcb


I've looked at the chips' specs - and in the very best case it would take $10-15 per chip to manufacture something with them. (which is mostly due to the high power (amperage) requirements).

Given all that - the December delivery for those chips would make them not worth even a try at prices above $10/chip.

If we presume the $10/chip price + $15 manufacturing cost and that it takes only 3 weeks from chips delivery to finished devices - that gives you $25/chip devices in mid-January. By the time you ship it to the customers and they start running it it will be Feb/1. In the utopia scenario customers will reach a peak of $28-44 income in 4-6 months.

Did I miss anything?

Please - someone explain and show me how this chip will ever make profit or at least achieve ROI?

Are you going to be providing a reference design for your chips, or just the spec sheet?

Thanks

Giorgio -

how are you able to run the voltage of your GF chips lower than their specified voltage?  Did you test that it will work at that low voltage or are you making assumptions or have some way of knowing that it works and the performance you get is correct ?

-- Jez

Precisely, key here is that difficulty will NOT grow exponentially forever, right now it is because of the technological shift and the widespread growth of people mining, but eventually the growth will get back to linear as it was before early 2013.

Dear BITMINE, I sent you two letters!! Give me an answer to my question when I get back my Bitcoin??

Its actually only around that order of magnitude that I believe asic mining can become profitable again for (efficient) miners. Of course you wont have the fantasy of achieving a positive ROI in 2 months anymore that miners now have when preordering, but almost never achieve - ever, but difficulty will also no longer be increasing exponentially, if at all (beyond tracking btc price), so you can afford to write off your hardware over years rather than the few weeks or months you have now.

As long as its marginally profitable to mine, someone will do it, so you can bet we will get to difficulty levels in the billions with todays BTC price.

I wish you good luck running a lot of these chips at 20B in low power mode!