Seems like the manipulation that was busted by the guy who made the reddit thread has revealed how much swap money there actually is on BFX and how it is pushing the Swap Rate to pathetic levels again.
The market is so bullish at the moment, we have a lot of volatility and the total sum of active swaps is basically at a massive all time high of over 28 mio yet the rate is well below 0.2 % and actually slowly decreasing. Seems like BFX finally has the publicity that the average joe puts his money there to gain some interest. I truly fear for more bearish times. The swap rate will probably ( a bit exaggerated) drop to prime rate levels.
..I think we were a bit spoiled, earlier, with those unbelievable rates. Even now, with declining rates, this is an amazing rate compared to any other investment. Minus the risk and volatility of investing directly in Bitcoin.
I like, both from a lenders and borrowers view.
Ente
What do you mean with "spoiled with unbelievable rates"? Yes, there have been days or more like hours in the (0.5-1 %) bracket which are retrospectively a pure result of manipulation ( I had mentioned these ridiculous spikes from 0.1 to 1 % for exactly one hour several times in this thread) but most of the time the rates are not that great. If you check the period of whole 2014 we can see that this has not been a strong time for lending. Aside from this spike at the end of June interest rate has been constantly declining while the total some of active swaps grows and grows.
I'm sure you are well aware of this site but still
http://bfxdata.com/ take a look at the development from 14th June onwards. It's almost comical.
I'm just asking for opinions here. I've stated something simliar a few months ago and disregarding the manipulation my take is that with BFX's popularity increasing and their "insurance" on swaps the platform is bound to be flooded wtih capital seeking interest rates higher than any bank (can or is willing) to offer. This will ultimately result in the interest rate reaching lower and lower levels. In the past few weeks I've seen numerous threads on reddit of people asking for advice on how to put their money on BFX for swaps and whether it's worth it. It surely is but it might not be for a long time anymore.
With the Chinese exchanges brazenly copying the BFX model I'm wondering whether this could (on a perspective on the whole market) lead to more demand and an increase in swap rates again. The other event that has the potential to massively increase the swap rates is another full fledged bubble of course.
Any opinions here?