Topic: Oil price War will Bring real War soon in Middle east - page 2. (Read 618 times)

What Putin wants to achieve is not just oil war and the cessation of US shale oil production but geopolitically there are long-term goals that Putin wants to achieve. With the oil war, finally an agreement was reached between the three parties between OPEC countries, Russia and the United States. It is not only OPEC and Russia that are reducing production but the United States will also reduce production to maintain prices.

Perhaps the oil price war hit Russia more than the United States, but it cannot be denied that this Russian strategy succeeded in making many oil drilling companies in the United States stop producing. Of course, Trump received pressure from oil businessmen in America who generally were from the republican party. If it continues like this the American oil company will only last for 3 months after it can close all. If this condition lasts 2 years the US oil industry will be permanently closed. And oil entrepreneurs in America also agree that if America does not reduce its production, oil prices will also not rise.

Although Trump reported that Putin and MBS agreed to reduce the supply of oil, but the reduction rate has not been agreed upon. In addition, Trump's pressure to resolve the drop in oil prices is very important because it will affect his popularity in the November elections. This happened when the US Secretary of State and US Senator aggressively pressured SBM to stop the oil war.

Indeed several times the plan to bring down the US oil industry has always failed, but who knows the agreement between Xi and Putin.

Russia never turned off the gas, if they will ever do so they can go back to eating grass.
Second, both Netherlands and Belgium are doing fine, to understand this you have to realize that the tiny country of Netherlands is exporting €94.5 billion worth of agricultural goods while total exports of Russia with oil and gas are 300 billion.
Russia is even importing caviar from Italy:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-10/food-of-czars-made-in-italy-as-caviar-is-spared-putin-ban


You're not up to date:  
Let's talk numbers:

Shale break-even point is at 35$, so the US would have to subsidize 15$ per 8 million barrels a day for 365 days.  That's 43 billion.

Russia, on the other hand, must have oil at 42$, so assuming again 20$ per barrel they lose 22$ per barrels x 10 million x 365. That's 80 billion.

But is that double? Nope, it's far worse.

US budget is 3.8 trillion, so that's 1%.
Russian budget is $326.5 billion, so that's  25%.
Who do you think would last longer?

Ps.
If you care so much about what Trump said
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-futures-pare-record-gains-as-doubts-creep-in-on-trumps-saudi-russia-output-deal-idUSKBN21K3HZ


You were saying the bluff failed? Seems like the opposite, both Saudia Arabia and Russia are on their knees.

The upper group in the economic pyramid always has a large disposable income or is not affected by lifestyle. even though expenses are rising and income decreases, disposable income remains large.

In the global arena, a country must decide which field to play in and what bargaining weapons will be used to win the competition. In the process of dealing and willing, we must have a bargaining tool if we don't have it, we must first create a road map so that we do not become victims of competition. Russia turned off its gas to Europe in order to get low prices for goods imported from the Netherlands, Belgium, and Britain. Russian wheat and wine products were bought high by Belgium and the Netherlands because of high import taxes.

Russia has chosen its grand strategy that defense and energy-based economy will be used as a tool to achieve its national interests. Putin's professional and educational background also influenced Russia's policymaking to return to being a world actor especially in near aboard and against transatlantic domination.

In an interview with Fox, Trump said his objections to the war on Russian and Saudi oil prices. "It really hurts the US energy industry. In a press statement, the White House expressed the importance of the stability of oil prices in the global energy market. Trump also said he would review sanctions previously given to Russia, which were previously given to a number of companies from the White Bear country.

Geopolitically, no country views Russia with one eye, Russia's military strength is still large and the nuclear remnants of the cold war are still owned by Russia. Maybe Russia will lose the oil war strategy but Russia gets something bigger in the future.

https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.asp

Well the answer is more than simple, the author has a very lively imagination, which can be seen from all his threads. I have already warned him not to write nonsense without any concrete facts, but he persists in his ideas - one of which is the war in the Middle East. He probably thinks that the war is financed just like that and this is something cheap - but to get a little brain involved, he might realize that at this point even the biggest fools wouldn't start the oil war - because mankind is fighting a completely different war against the virus.

Since more than two weeks have passed and there is still no war (and according to OP it should happen within 7 days from March 16) can we conclude that the OP is an ordinary troll who understands world politics to the same extent as a child understands the concept of thermal nuclear fusion?

Precisely, I don't have any idea where the author got his numbers on. Most commodities and assets right now are on a huge sump because of the stock market crash brought about by the pandemic, this caused a bunch o stocks to lose value as the day progresses. I wil find it absurd and fishy if despite the huge dump in the market, an asset such as oil becomes surprisingly expensive. It can't go high judt because you said so.

Well... I have a slightly differing opinion on this. The oil price is falling like a rock. The last time I checked, Brent crude was going at less than $27 per barrel, with the WTI quoting even lower. In this scenario, it looks as if the only way to get oil above $50 per barrel is by triggering a war. The Saudis need to do something about it, else they are going bankrupt in a few months.

Military budgets are not really all that important during a war unless you are ahead of everyone like USA. Usually economical budget is much more important. Could there be a war with weapons and killing?

Maybe, who knows? But the real trouble here is, countries basically putting embargo against each other and not giving their oil for these prices. When one nation stops selling oil and all other nations follow, the oil price will sky rocket back to what it was. Economical warfare is a bigger possibility nowadays than actual war, even in countries in middle east they would prefer to have a war on economical sense then an actual war if they can. However if a real war breaks out, oil is waaaaay too important so there will be other first world nations who will intervene.

Despite of this pandemic, there is still a possibility of a war, that is not caused by oil's price, but maybe the virus itself, I am pretty sure the other side of the infected country is also trying to investigate the possible sources of this virus, in that case, if it was proven that the virus is created as a bio weapon to attack US and other countries, then that is enough to justify that war should happen. I don't want this to happen, but with the action of both parties to help to stop this pandemic on the other hand is also a sign that there is unity and war should be taken over.

Seriously, stop watching Russian propaganda...
Russia is a gas station that is going bankrupt.

Every time oil prices took a dive, Russia was on its knees begging.
At the end of the '80s oil went down to 20, the URSS fell apart, in the '90s oil went again to 20$,  Russia went bankrupt again.

Who the hell cares about what Russia does anymore, they are done for, with 10 million extra barrels a day and this shutdown their whole bluff of letting Europe without gas and oil scares nobody and nobody who knows how Russia lies 20 times per second believes their bravery speech.
Do you know what sanctions have done to them? They have a lower average wage right now than Romania!
The biggest country in the world with tons of resources and land, the so-called global nuclear power is earning on average what an Mc Donald's burger flipper does in one week.

Reserves?
They have already flushed down the toilet in one week 30 billion trying to prob the ruble and help Rosneft, and here you have it, from their own propaganda tabloid: https://www.rt.com/business/484229-russia-forex-reserves-fall/


Seriously stop  

And I personally don't understand how oil price could lead to the war
I mean these countries which rely on oil won't be satisfied with price and get too angry so will attack?
but thats a big loss of value to attack anyone, so I highly doubt that will happen after all

Besides the declining demand due to the coronavirus epidemic, in my opinion, the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia is only a proxy war run by the United States through MBS to tackle Russia but it seems that Russia is not afraid of the bluff of MBS instead the United States and Saudi Arabia are now doing lobbying to President Putin. Trump took the initiative to call Putin and the two agreed to hold a repeat discussion about oil prices.

The bluff done by the United States to Russia failed miserably because, there was no relaxation at all regarding Russia because Putin's main goal was not just oil but with his bargaining power, Putin wanted the United States to reduce sanctions to several Russian allies such as the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. connecting Russia to Germany then the Rosneft agreement in Venezuela. In addition, Russia needs a market share captured by American shale oil back to Russia.

Now the choice is in Russia's hands, it will punish the US shale oil industry to stop or file sanctions for the United States.

IMO, if the oil prices plunge then the chances of war should decrease. The Saudis are able to make their multi-billion USD defense purchases, only when the oil prices are high. If the brent crude plunges below $20 per barrel and stays there for a few months, then these people would be forced to cut back on their foreign interventions (especially the invasion of neighboring Yemen).

The current pandemic seems to have caused the entire country to suffer economic setbacks. with the nature of the virus that is easily spread and has caused many victims, plus no one knows when this outbreak will end. that is what causes negative thoughts in everyone and chooses to save themselves

For decades the Energy Policy has served as a cornerstone of Russia's foreign policy that has a national interest in making itself a peace conflict catalyst; global counterweight; out of the grip of the US and its allies; and restore himself as a superpower. During these 5 years, Russia has successfully used its geo-economic instruments to suppress Europe by repeatedly shutting oil supplies to Europe.

In the document "Main Provision of the Russsian Energy Strategy 2020" Putin will increase oil and natural gas production with the aim of developing exports, attracting FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) into the national energy sector and for better energy transportation. and in the end, it will strengthen the utilization of its energy sources and strengthen the energy industry to develop Russian political power.

Whereas in the Energy Strategy of Russia for the Period Up to 2030, it was true that income from the energy sector was used for meet Russian financial needs in developing exploration/production of new areas. Russia is trying to maximize its potential to produce energy and advance its technology and infrastructure so that its energy industry is increasingly unmatched in the World.
http://www.energystrategy.ru/projects/docs/ES-2030_(Eng).pdf

But Shale oil has changed the map of political geo-economics, geo-strategy, and global geopolitics. Since the discovery of shale oil in 2008, it has changed the US from a long-term energy beggar to become the world's largest oil producer and the US will be one of the major players in the energy sector and have the power to regulate world oil prices and geopolitical maps of the world.

Hello my friend.  I apologize for the interference, but you were a little mistaken and expressed your opinion not on my comment, but on the comment of the person whom I addressed.  In essence, I have almost the same opinion as you regarding sources of replenishment of the state budget of the Russian Federation.  I see that the situation is getting worse all over the world, and for some countries this drop in oil prices will be catastrophic.  moreover, the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic on the economies of many countries will be even more severe.

So, one week and a few more days to let the armies mobilize and...what a surprise, no war!
No increase in oil prices back to 60$, brent is still at 30$....
What happened, how could your prophecy go wrong?  


Invest their money in...wait...what money?
Russia gets money from oil and gas, without that, its economy is almost dead.
Look at the previous oil crisis
- oil goes to 30 from 70, the URSS collapses
- oil drops to 20, the first Russian default happens

They don't have anything but a reserve fund that would not be able to cover the impact from this, remember we're talking about a country which calls itself a global superpower, with huge natural resources and a GDP per capita that matches Romania or Malaysia...

Yes, they are idiots, they sell oil and import refined petroleum products, they even import mining machines and even the equipment for oil exploration.
Behind their entire propaganda, it's one of the most fragile economy in the world.

LE:
Edited with the right quote.

The fact is that due to what is happening today in the oil market, the Russian Federation will suffer the most.  Their oil, which is the most expensive to produce, will not be able to compete with oil from Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates.  The Russian government will have to look for other approaches to sell its oil, since their oil and gas are the only sources for filling the state budget of the country.  Based on this, Russia can begin any military operations in those places where it sees fit, in order to obtain profitable dividends or conditions in order to force other countries to negotiate favorable terms of trade.  Modern warfare is not only bloodshed, but also an argument for doing business.  As an example, this is the United States and Iraq.

Economical warfare never went away, there is a war going on in Syria right now that is literally fought by tens of nations, Turkey from one place, Iran from another, Russia, Saudi Arabia, three fronts inside with regime, rebels and ISIS so there is literally a million ways that war can go, but nothing like that will happen because of Oil wars.

It will be economical and it will take a lot more to bring down these nations than just oil prices going down. Is Russia and Saudis affected by this? Sure they are, however they are not idiots neither, while we were buying oil from them and they were getting richer, they invested all of their money into global companies in every nation, if one day all oil ends in Saudi Arabia and they do not make any profits from it, they will still have billions of dollars invested spread around the world.

What war you are talking about, the price of oil is falling because of the decision by Saudi to increase the production and to have a control over the market, increased production means the price will go down and they wanted to compete with Russia and the US as they have the technology to produce at a much better rate and Saudi is implementing new strategy to have an upper hand in the long run. If you mean strategical war when it comes to oil price then it is true.

Indeed you are absolutely right, because the oil price aee getting high, and this can start a sign of war, and i think if this is gonna happen i think this is gonna be a big war let's say a WORLD WAR III, because not just two countries will fight for this because they have an alliance,

And i think this war will start in the near future.
Just keep safe everyone.