How often do you see this sentence posted all over youtube and other social media with people claiming to be experts and analysts claiming that we need another leg down to start a recovery, or to end a bear market, or to reverse the trend?
I will only agree with others that YT and social networks as a source of information are quite unreliable and create a lot of misinformation and confusion, especially when it comes to beginners who absorb it all without any filtering. These so-called experts are nothing but influencers who use all these platforms to make as much money as possible, and it doesn't matter that they are aware that they are releasing a lot of nonsense to the public.
I find this to be stupid. They're looking for similarities in the corrective move, ignoring the fact that there weren't many similarities in previous bull runs and this one, starting with the fact that in 2013 btc went 10x, in 2017 and early 2018 it went up 20x and this time in it's worst performing bull market in history, it only made 3.5x.
Their defense is that they're trying to make people aware of what can happen, but they're actually getting lost in the same pattern that last year, in the bull market, made them believe that Bitcoin has to reach between 80k and 100k, with some claiming 150k would be the top.
How much ATH will be in a bull run is not easy to estimate, it all comes down to speculation - but large numbers always attract more visitors, so many deliberately exaggerate. Some do it on purpose to persuade others not to sell, while they slowly take profits all the way up.
As for the similarities after each bull run, I would say that there are similarities that are manifested by a certain percentage of correction, and then over time a certain stability in price as is the case right now. I remember 2015 when the price slipped even below $200 (before that $1100), as well as 2018 when we slipped down to $3000 (before that $20 000).
I wouldn’t say it’s any different now on that issue, we’re in a period of about 2 years after halving, and about 2 years until the next halving - some might say we’re positioned in the eye of the storm, so while everything seems calm I would say that it is only an illusion.