Topic: One more leg down - page 4. (Read 709 times)

A lot of people think we're still in a bull market.  I'm not seeing the fatigue around another leg down that you seem to be seeing.  Expectations for me personally are that we will continue a slow griding drop in price until the next halving or possibly sooner if an ETF is approved (and it isn't a buy the rumor sell the news situation).  Looking at previous cycles, I wouldn't be shocked if we fell slowly over the next year or two all the way down to $10K.  I'd personally rather we saw $200K, but what I want doesn't matter to the market.  Right now I would put the risk/reward price expectations around $10K/$85K.  That being said, I'm still buying BTC on a regular basis at these levels.

The YouTubers usually give you a positive side of the picture and they will most probably say that bitcoin and crypto will pump in the short term. Most people want to hear this and hence their focus is to make content that is liked by many people but it may not be authentic.
I think if you are a crypto trader, you should avoid those crypto vlogs and advice through youtube as they will lead to a loss. Also sometimes I see these YouTubers shilling some low cap coins to go 1000x. I wonder if they are being paid by the project's owners to make such predictions for their coins 

It will probably gonna lost another leg next week.

If I were you OP, I should stop watching those so-called experts on youtube because they don't really care about the price or anything about the market. They are just concerned for the views and if you are a trader you should just read some articles that might help you to know the next move of the market.

And if you are just holding, you should stop watching the price everyday because it won't move just for a single day. Try to minimize watching them or the price so you won't be stressed so much.

starting with the fact that in 2013 btc went 10x? did you mean 100x because price change in 2013 was bigger than change in 2017.

• They are not trying to find similar patterns, but there are questions that are asked and thus giving a pattern or type of analysis will attract them to views and make the user more confident in what is being talked about.
• all of these videos are trying to find views and therefore they will look for similar patterns, even if they do not exist.

Slow and sustainable growth is better than irrational fluctuations.

US stocks are parallel to us because so much of stock activity is highly rated tech companies that promise lots of growth occurring over 10 years (quite a few arent making money today so lack natural inertia).   If the atmosphere for risk and speculative trades becomes more negative then BTC like many things starts to feel that withdrawal of free capital.  
  Its not that surprising with so many wars and other fears, high cost oil its having a crushing effect on free capital to speculate with.   BTC has done very well so far vs a higher dollar index value, but it can slip some in that general hold its had.   Long term I dont think its negative but alot of trading relies on the idea of more immediate gains.

AFAIK we're already below most of the averages. To me it's mostly US stocks that are dragging us down and the problem with this war and a possible escalation because Putin is proving to be insane. People see it and it shows in the way markets are trading. Stocks in the US, EU and China are down. Nasdaq took another hit today and so did Bitcoin because it is being treated by many like a tech stock.

Experts and traders remind me of this https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-hits-2022-high-as-analyst-gives-new-80k-btc-price-target

Funny but true, and it just shows that btc prediction is more complicated than it sounds. As you have said, there's one famous model that predicts bitcoin to hit at least $100k this year but it didn't happen. And I don't think that we this is not the las time that we will hear this kind of terms, to somewhat 'misled', new comers in the market with such technicalities. I guess it's better if we stay away from this kind of crypto influencers specially in YT since obviously they really don't know what they are talking about. Just like you and me, they are making a wild and educate guesses.

The way BTC is acting a flush out is going to occur.  Reason being its failing below moving averages and also challenging a trend true over many months many times now.   One day it stops holding us up and we take a tumble down the mountainside.   It can recover but first we trade down seems more often to become likely every day is how it appears.

I've not paid much attention to Youtubers who say a lot about bitcoin. They can say that there will be "another leg down" and say that the lowest price will be at this, this, and this point, so please be aware and have your money ready to buy in that price range. Yes, they can provide their analysis of where bitcoin will go but keep in mind that no one can predict where bitcoin will go.

As long as you're still willing to try to make your own analysis and don't rely on those "analytical experts," you can see or get other signs of where bitcoin is going. For now, maybe we just need to follow where bitcoin is going. If the price goes down, we buy a little and sell when the price goes up. Maybe we will still see conditions like this for some time.

The issue with those that trade the markets by using patterns is that on the surface it may seem as if they have a point as the patterns seem to repeat themselves, however with the exception of the halving everything else is always different. So trying to find in the past an explanation for what is happening now is a mistake, especially since the bitcoin market of 2022 is not the same as the bitcoin market of 2018 as the circumstances have changed dramatically since then.

That's the reason why I've stopped watching those crypto vloggers, they all say the same thing and just because they've got something to say, makes them an expert.
But no matter what the situation of the market, they'll just continue to do it as they've loved it as a passion and also because of monetization. It's better to read a brief news about the market and good to read topics and articles about what had just happened to the market.

How do you think they would pump out more content when we've been in a sideways chop in this range since fk knows when?

The trick is to simply not watch them. There's so much more productive things to do than to watch YouTube "traders".

How often do you see this sentence posted all over youtube and other social media with people claiming to be experts and analysts claiming that we need another leg down to start a recovery, or to end a bear market, or to reverse the trend?
I remember seeing this in 2019 when we were sitting at 3k where people, including well known figures like Tone Vays saying that we'll have another leg down to the previous all time high of 1k USD.
I watch youtubers from time to time and the majority thinks we'll either go to the 200 week MA at 2k USD, or touch the old ATH at 20k because some "old pattern" has to repeat.

I find this to be stupid. They're looking for similarities in the corrective move, ignoring the fact that there weren't many similarities in previous bull runs and this one, starting with the fact that in 2013 btc went 10x, in 2017 and early 2018 it went up 20x and this time in it's worst performing bull market in history, it only made 3.5x.
Their defense is that they're trying to make people aware of what can happen, but they're actually getting lost in the same pattern that last year, in the bull market, made them believe that Bitcoin has to reach between 80k and 100k, with some claiming 150k would be the top.

What do you think? Is "another leg down" starting to get old?