Topic: One thought about what can happen after the Btc Halving. (Read 394 times)
People taught the price of BTC will be dump as miners might not see any gain to maintain the cost of mining but that has been proven to be wrong as the price of BTC maintains the momentum.
Technically it would happen but the Bitcoin code automatically adjust whenever miners have difficulty in solving a block if the mined blocks exceeds within the 10 mins threshold then the difficulty will decrease. So the CPU power and electricity cost will also decrease, also they get incentives from processing transaction and with coming bullrun we should expect Bitcoin price increase that should cover the expenses of miners.
Some miner has leaving off from crypto already.
https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-halving-2020-miner-arms-race-efficiency
Mining competition is now getting harder and mining businesses seem not profitable this time. And I think that some of them are now at rest waiting for the market to rise rather than to run their equipment and pay for the huge electric bill. But I have to say that this is just for the meantime while the situation is hard but later on, they will back to operation.
https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-halving-2020-miner-arms-race-efficiency
Mining competition is now getting harder and mining businesses seem not profitable this time. And I think that some of them are now at rest waiting for the market to rise rather than to run their equipment and pay for the huge electric bill. But I have to say that this is just for the meantime while the situation is hard but later on, they will back to operation.
Yes, the hashrate of the network should decline, due to the release of miners, the costs of which will be more than their profit. But I’m also sure that some of them will buy more powerful equipment, and this will not allow power to fall very quickly.
Most likely, not what we expect will happen. And this is bad news.
Technically Yes, and even prior to halving, it is vulnerable to attacks but we haven't seen anyone even try to attempt and disrupt it, why? because there are no incentives. So I doubt that this theory will ever happened. And I think that's how Satoshi designed it, very hard to achieved and it ever you achieved it, not profitable in the long run. It's going to be a struggle to that bad actor to attempt double spending.
You can read GHash.IO Statement Regarding 51% Threat years ago. And if you think that Ghash was the first pool to technically have 50% of the hashrate, well you're wrong, deepbit has 50.18 % now.
You can read GHash.IO Statement Regarding 51% Threat years ago. And if you think that Ghash was the first pool to technically have 50% of the hashrate, well you're wrong, deepbit has 50.18 % now.
Miners use tons of electricity to process transactions, and the general assumption is that miners directly sell their newly created bitcoins to cover their costs. Almost everyone knows that after the halving, not 1800 bitcoins, but only 900 bitcoins are supplied to the market daily.
This change is believed to have a positive effect on the price of bitcoin.
If the price of bitcoin does not increase after the block is rewarded by half, the miners revenue calculated in $ will decrease. This means that they will have trouble covering their costs, and that will cause miners with the highest electricity costs to leave the market first. The reduction in electricity consumption to maintain the network means that the difficulty of processing a block of transactions will decrease.
Theoretically, this means that it would be easier to attack the blockchain network and create 51% of attacks.
What do you think?
This change is believed to have a positive effect on the price of bitcoin.
If the price of bitcoin does not increase after the block is rewarded by half, the miners revenue calculated in $ will decrease. This means that they will have trouble covering their costs, and that will cause miners with the highest electricity costs to leave the market first. The reduction in electricity consumption to maintain the network means that the difficulty of processing a block of transactions will decrease.
Theoretically, this means that it would be easier to attack the blockchain network and create 51% of attacks.
What do you think?
It would be a little bit easier to perform a 51% attack,but it's still very difficult and expensive.
I wonder why nobody launched a 51% attack 5 years ago,when the price of Bitcoin was 300-400 USD and mining difficulty was way easier?
The main question remains.What would be the benefit for the guy or group of people,who perform such 51% attack?Taking over the blockchain?Yeah,but all Bitcoin users will just sell their BTC and leave,when they find out that the blockchain is controlled by someone.The Bitcoin price would totally collapse,so the "profit" from such 51% attack is questionable.
that is the theory and the problem is that this theory has been said 2 times before and each time price remains the same as before halving (before the hyped up rise in the month leading to halving) and it even stays there for a month or two after the halving and during that time not only miners don't quit but also the hashrate goes up a little bit. so there must be a flaw somewhere in that theory that it hasn't work.
If that would've been the case, Bitcoin would have been done years ago.
No halving had an instant price increase. In fact, there were more hard dumps than price increases and yet Bitcoin has survived and has had no 51% attack.
Was there someone with a lot of power to create a 51% attack, they would've left the mining network for 2016 blocks and then return with an attack. They aren't going to wait years for the perfect opportunity.
No halving had an instant price increase. In fact, there were more hard dumps than price increases and yet Bitcoin has survived and has had no 51% attack.
Was there someone with a lot of power to create a 51% attack, they would've left the mining network for 2016 blocks and then return with an attack. They aren't going to wait years for the perfect opportunity.
I think some people are misunderstanding OP here. I don't think OP meant to say that Bitcoin will be 51% attacked, it's just that OP meant that Bitcoin could end up being easier to be 51% attacked, but not necessarily that it will happen(because it would obviously very unlikely).
Exactly the point, With this halving some miners can go away from bitcoin, making cheaper to do a 51% attack, but even falling from half and more the costs and effort to do it will be inviable and is something still discussable.
If that would've been the case, Bitcoin would have been done years ago.
No halving had an instant price increase. In fact, there were more hard dumps than price increases and yet Bitcoin has survived and has had no 51% attack.
Was there someone with a lot of power to create a 51% attack, they would've left the mining network for 2016 blocks and then return with an attack. They aren't going to wait years for the perfect opportunity.
No halving had an instant price increase. In fact, there were more hard dumps than price increases and yet Bitcoin has survived and has had no 51% attack.
Was there someone with a lot of power to create a 51% attack, they would've left the mining network for 2016 blocks and then return with an attack. They aren't going to wait years for the perfect opportunity.
I think some people are misunderstanding OP here. I don't think OP meant to say that Bitcoin will be 51% attacked, it's just that OP meant that Bitcoin could end up being easier to be 51% attacked, but not necessarily that it will happen(because it would obviously very unlikely).
If that would've been the case, Bitcoin would have been done years ago.
No halving had an instant price increase. In fact, there were more hard dumps than price increases and yet Bitcoin has survived and has had no 51% attack.
Was there someone with a lot of power to create a 51% attack, they would've left the mining network for 2016 blocks and then return with an attack. They aren't going to wait years for the perfect opportunity.
No halving had an instant price increase. In fact, there were more hard dumps than price increases and yet Bitcoin has survived and has had no 51% attack.
Was there someone with a lot of power to create a 51% attack, they would've left the mining network for 2016 blocks and then return with an attack. They aren't going to wait years for the perfect opportunity.
There's high possibility that they start machines again when bitcoin price booms.
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These small miners would also have to upgrade their machines as their hash rate would not be enough to make enough btc. Electricity costs will eat their profits if they dont upgrade.
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These small miners would also have to upgrade their machines as their hash rate would not be enough to make enough btc. Electricity costs will eat their profits if they dont upgrade.
The reduction in electricity consumption to maintain the network means that the difficulty of processing a block of transactions will decrease.
Theoretically, this means that it would be easier to attack the blockchain network and create 51% of attacks.
What do you think?
Theoretically, this means that it would be easier to attack the blockchain network and create 51% of attacks.
What do you think?
I would use the word 'comparatively easier' instead of 'easier'. Creating 51% attack still gonna cost lots of computing power. On top of that, it will be wholly loss-loss situation for the party so I don't understand why would someone do that. Better use such resources towards mining new block to make network stronger (win-win).
Yeah its true that bitcoin halving is going to increase pressure on miners and managing overall mining costs is definitely a big issue here. After halving if bitcoin keep holding its price towards uptrend than it will be a little relief for miners. Most important fact is miners have to cover their costs anyhow otherwise a big number of miners will shut down their rigs for sure. So during halving only bitcoin price can help them to tackle the upcoming situation.
I don’t believe that miners will take hard decision to shut down their businesses for ever but most of them will try their best to survive in a situation like this.
I don’t believe that miners will take hard decision to shut down their businesses for ever but most of them will try their best to survive in a situation like this.
It's simple math that in order to keep all current miners profitable, Bitcoin price needs to increase by two-folds. I don't see that happening any time soon. So miners will leave, no brainer in that. However, number of miners and hash rate are dynamic. These things keep moving up and down with the bitcoin price. Even though few miners leave after halving, there's high possibility that they start machines again when bitcoin price booms.
I'm pretty sure they have measures to tackle such problems. They could be trying to hodl their mined coins right now in hopes of selling it for higher prices a bit more in the future so that they can pay for the expenses that they have. Ofc that's also a form of investment and may actually lead to more losses, but hell, it's worth a try. Sides, it isn't like the only miners out there are those that are currently mining. I'm sure there are still a number of miners out there that are willing and are just waiting to enter the scene. It's kind of a bet yes, but well, that's pretty much life anyway though, you invest and if it goes well you win. Additionally, if all goes well, the limited increase of BTC would pretty much be an advantage for the miners since a price increase would be seen in the long term.
Yeah its true that bitcoin halving is going to increase pressure on miners and managing overall mining costs is definitely a big issue here. After halving if bitcoin keep holding its price towards uptrend than it will be a little relief for miners. Most important fact is miners have to cover their costs anyhow otherwise a big number of miners will shut down their rigs for sure. So during halving only bitcoin price can help them to tackle the upcoming situation.
I don’t believe that miners will take hard decision to shut down their businesses for ever but most of them will try their best to survive in a situation like this.
I don’t believe that miners will take hard decision to shut down their businesses for ever but most of them will try their best to survive in a situation like this.
I saw similar threads during the previous halving, speculating about 51% attack and a new thread of on it every few days and then slowly everyone forgot about those after the halving was completed. 
Since miners who are always willing to use their device to keep mining coins see a decrease in subsidy with every halving, they might be tempted to leave mining. Surely they can, but then the difficulty for mining will reduce making the other miners more enthusiastic to continue mining. Does that affect the network integrity? No.
A couple of miners leaving the scene means a couple of new miners entering the scene too. You will be surprised to see the number of miners who are struggling to compete with the established miners just for a couple of coins. They will seize the opportunity.
Since miners who are always willing to use their device to keep mining coins see a decrease in subsidy with every halving, they might be tempted to leave mining. Surely they can, but then the difficulty for mining will reduce making the other miners more enthusiastic to continue mining. Does that affect the network integrity? No.
A couple of miners leaving the scene means a couple of new miners entering the scene too. You will be surprised to see the number of miners who are struggling to compete with the established miners just for a couple of coins. They will seize the opportunity.
Satoshi Nakamoto designed the protocol in such a way that it always balance out after certain things change. So if the difficulty goes up and people start leaving the mining scene, then the difficulty will automatically be adjusted by the protocol to go down again and then some of these miners will come back again. < It will look at the total hashing power and constantly adjust the difficulty >
The theory is also that a reduction in the mining reward, will decrease the supply of coins and in theory it will cause a reduced supply and a increase in the price. (So even if the difficulty increase and more energy is used, the cost of that should be covered by the increase in the price)
The theory is also that a reduction in the mining reward, will decrease the supply of coins and in theory it will cause a reduced supply and a increase in the price. (So even if the difficulty increase and more energy is used, the cost of that should be covered by the increase in the price)
In all honesty you really have to think like a whale. What do whales want to do when there is increased demand in Bitcoin? They want to liquidate. The best time to turn btc into cash is when there is a huge demand in btc, because the price will always go back up.
After the halving my prediction is that whales will want to accumulate more bitcoin and one way for them to do this is by dropping the price after the halving. What does dropping the price do? It enables them to accumulate even more bitcoin. After the halving, the whales are going to try and shake off the small miners. They will do this by making sure the price does not reach 2X in the short term. My opinion is that they will drop the price in the 4500-6500 range after the halving. By doing this, all the small miners MUST cash out to cover electricity costs.
After the halving my prediction is that whales will want to accumulate more bitcoin and one way for them to do this is by dropping the price after the halving. What does dropping the price do? It enables them to accumulate even more bitcoin. After the halving, the whales are going to try and shake off the small miners. They will do this by making sure the price does not reach 2X in the short term. My opinion is that they will drop the price in the 4500-6500 range after the halving. By doing this, all the small miners MUST cash out to cover electricity costs.
Yes, that's definitely a possibility. Miners with slimmer profit:cost margins will either have to close down their machines, or they could continue mining in the hopes of a price increase. Though, the former is more likely.
While Bitcoin will likely to be easier to attack, I really don't think the change will be that significant for people to actually be interested into attacking Bitcoin though. It's still going to be really really expensive. Not to mention that the cost isn't the only factor for them to not attack Bitcoin.
While Bitcoin will likely to be easier to attack, I really don't think the change will be that significant for people to actually be interested into attacking Bitcoin though. It's still going to be really really expensive. Not to mention that the cost isn't the only factor for them to not attack Bitcoin.
Yeah and this is really well reminded, even being cheaper to do a 51% attack it's still a lot of money and effort to try to do so.
The change in difficulty would probably not that much so people start thinking that "hey, if I rollback this tx I might get profits". The cost to attack the network would still be high and they're probably better of with contributing and hoping to get that ~6 BTC block rewards.
Some even say $1k since months ago.
Am reading from different sources that after halving btc price will dump, some say to 6600k another source say to 3500k,
Some even say $1k since months ago.
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