Topic: Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving! (Read 2002 times)

Easily predictable and accountable money supply. 50/25/12.5 etc. is a lot easier than .000135323 less reward next block.

This social experiment can sure use them

I'm sure someone better qualified can come up with that answer. I just post dick jokes.

Satoshi certainly had amazing foresight in many areas, block rewards falling off a cliff every few years like clockwork doesn't seem very connected to how the real world works to me but there must be a compelling reason why, or maybe it was just a load easier to code.

I never understood why the block reward isn't adjusted gradually (each consecutive block having a slightly lower reward), rather than by halving it every X number of blocks.  Any idea?

Well, I'd be very intrigued to see what happened if that did come about. It would certainly be spectacular if nothing else.

There's nothing worth mining now because it's hard to compete with BTC at its current block reward. This may all change next year if BTC price doesn't double by the time block reward is halved.

The whole thing kinda feeds on itself, think the kindling model. Bitcoin is strong because it's strong; because a large, expensive network of miners is behind it. Turn that network to a clone coin, and bitcoin's no longer strong, the clone coin is.

There aren't very many alternative coins that a Bitcoin ASIC could mine. And even fewer that are actually worth anything.

Sure, until miners decide to point their gear to another coin.  Remember, reward halving means miners will gross half as much as they do now.  Depending on BTC price at that time, their net could become negative.

Bitcoin may not be the only coin out there but, it's the only one with a massively giant network behind it.

err yeah, if Biitcoin was the only money in existence, or even the only crypto...

But let's work with your example: "If there were only 100 cars in existence and there would never be any more, then we destroyed 50 of them , yes, the price of the remaining cars would skyrocket..."

No, it would not.  People will learn to walk, or ride scooters, or trains, or fly.  Other car manufacturers would appear (just like other coins are appearing).

You're starting with the same misconception that Beanie Babies enthusiasts fell victim to: Limited supply guarantees value.  Of course, it doesn't.  I don't need to own a Beanie, and I certainly don't need to own a bitcoin--I can chose to simply ignore both & use my CC.

Really comparing bitcoin to cars???

If there were only 100 cars in existence and there would never be any more, then we destroyed 50 of them , yes, the price of the remaining cars would skyrocket...

Not at all.  Not even if we assume miners selling every coin they mine.
Source: blockchain.info


A fundamental misunderstanding of how the market works.
If that was really the case, GM could simply cut the number of cars manufactured in half, and double the price. Profit!

If the majority of bitcoin-exchange market supply is coming from mining, which currently seems to be the case, and that supply halves, that's a supply shock. If demand remains the same, the price must roughly double.

This is part of the reason why I think the price is being held down right now, and we are in for another large run up.

24h volume is $28mil, and we have been sideways. I know a lot of that is noise, but if it's required that $28 million dollars is needed in volume a day is keeping the price where it is, and only $1million of that is needed for daily new coins, wouldn't you think someone(s) is trying to match the buying volume daily to accumulate slowly, until bitcoin volume gets large enough that you can't sell enough to get the price down? The volume is so small now that anyone with a large position in btc or usd can keep the market where they want and gain on it.

Imagine if the daily buy volume was just $1-2 million more than the sell side daily, and then combined with HALF of the daily need from mining.
Imagine if the daily volume went up to $50-100+ million a day because of Gemini and the ETF. If you don't think people are waiting on the sidelines for that to come around, then you are blind. The approval of those will ease the comfort of buying, and many many more people will buy a few bitcoin "just incase" just incase their crazy neighbor/uncle/coworker was right about bitcoin being revolutionary.
Yes altcoins can overcome bitcoin, but bitcoin really is the only one going mainstream right now and getting this much VC funding, so that won't happen within the near future.
Imagine the volume if this takes up 5% of the worlds transactions.
I'm not going to name any possible prices of what all of this snowballed together could value to, because I don't know, but I know it means a higher value than what it is now, and probably by at least double
2016 is going to be wild.

This is, gentlemen.
Prepare you agnus



For the halving.

Is the final fraction of a coin arriving in 2140 priced in too? If that's the case then we should all go home.

that would be nice but it really depends on the type of new users. if they all are broke and constantly farming faucets for lame rewards then it won't do much.

Just throw the argument of excessive energy usage and terrorist funding into the pot,lol.

Oh, and think about the children!

Omg!  The humanity!

So why nothing happens? Don't we have this much by now?

It's a known future event, so it should already be priced into the current price.