Topic: ☆☆☆ Opportunity to mine with Avalon ASICs ☞☞ Updated Prices (Read 5488 times)

Afaik, Avalon has not shipped the chips to anyone yet. They probably are waiting for enough orders to start production with TSMC. So, once they are done, everyone who ordered would get their chips in a reasonable amount of time.

We do realize that it is late. But we figured better late than never. Many people missed the early ASICs by Avalon because there were doubts whether it would materialize. Now that Avalon has proved that they can produce the needed ASICs, this is an opportunity to get into the mining game.

According to Avalon, these chips will be available until at least end of the year, 2013.

No one has received them yet. Ordering from someone else would add unnecessary costs to the project without providing any real
benefit.


just my satoshi change

You did not buy chips yet, now that everyone else bought huge batches of avalon chips you will be like,.. the last person on earth to get hands on avalon chips?
Still you raise funds for this. This whole project is nice, but I feel sorry for you: you are too late.
Though the price/gh is good (a lot better than before), it will be too late by the time you get hands on them, i guess. Anyway, are the chips still for sale?

Now if you bought chips from someone else (like batch1) for some extra cost this project should be funded in no time. Acutally I would invest some btc.

just my 2 satoshis

If any issue arises as to who sent the bitcoins, we will require a signed message. Also, dividends will be sent to the input address.

Compared to what?

I am shocked because in the PM section you did not request a freaking signed msg from the input address! 

At the current costs the ROI will be much better.
Also the price per GH/s is also very good.

1.5GH/s for 1 BTC.

Prices Updated.

I had a long chat on IRC with BTC Oxygen (where he has OP rights in a well-known 275 person channel) yesterday and he might offer bitfunder for managing your shares. But more importantly I trust him now and his competence.

This is why I'm pledging an initial 5 BTC to this project. We could use http://www.pledgebank.com/ to track pledges.

And someone please correct wrenchmonkey's last post, it may be misleading.

Just 3462 BTC to go! 

Investor list updated in post 2 of this thread.

Additional 70 BTC has been pledged.

I have pledged 5BTC to this project, should it materialize.

Yes, time is running out to get the project started before the difficulty goes too high. We were planning to order by end of April so we could start operations by end of July. If we don't get enough funds in a feasible time, then we will probably have to discard the idea. If that happens, then anybody who had invested would get back their bitcoins in full.

Time is running out? Yet the address to send payments (https://blockchain.info/address/1VbWxiGEa1d89ZigFuWWeP5CjDJSK6Xdi) has 2 transactions a total of 18.1 BTC. What's up with that, am I an idiot?

Some folks interested in this have asked us to reduce the management fees. After consideration, we have decided to change it to 10%.

I would really like to know what better alternatives are out there. Currently, you cannot order ASICs from Avalon. The pre-orders for batch 2 are being sold on ebay for 30,000-50,000 USD = 200 - 330 BTC.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Avalon-ASIC-Bitcoin-Mining-Rig-Preorder-Batch-2-/271190359628?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item3f24347e4c
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Batch-2-Avalon-ASIC-Pre-Order-Bitcoin-Mining-Rig-/321106241910?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item4ac36c6976

We do hope to be able to provide a good ROI to those who invest. We have tried to be careful with the cost estimation. It was possible to hype up and say that we could do this project for 2000 BTC or less and get funding. But in the real world, stuff happens and we need to be prepared for contingencies. If we manage to get the project started for less, the extra amount will be paid back to investors.

As time passes and difficulty increases, it is going to take longer and longer to get good returns. Better get started as early as possible.

Correct. The cycles are more like 10-12 days each. I was trying to make some what-if scenarios for different difficulty values. Modifying the calculation as you suggested, it comes up like this:


In reality, no one can actually predict the actual difficulty. We have to see how it plays out.

The important thing to take is that the earlier one gets started on mining, the higher the chances of getting ROI sooner. If someone waits till 2014 to start mining, it might take many years to see any ROI especially if the difficulty really goes above 100 million or so.

The only winner in this project seems to be you.

The whole thing is too fuzzy for me, especially your costs...There are better alternatives for me

And 35.000.000 difficulty in August? Keep dreaming. It will be more like 60.000.000.

Plus, we can bet that you won't be able to have all the chips online by August. More by September/October.

You can probably decrease the incremental increase with each difficulty.  Consistent 15-20% increase may be hard. But remember the cycles will not be 14 days.  Each difficulty will be closer to 10 days.

You are correct that a static difficulty cannot be used for estimation. But no one can be sure what the network hashrates and corresponding difficulty is going to be in the next six months. Projections that say that the hash rate will double each month are not based on any hard data.

See the table below where I have assumed that the difficulty will be 35 million at the beginning of August and increased the difficulty by 15 and 20 percent alternating every two weeks.


If the difficulty is increased by 10 percent every two weeks, then this is the result in seven months:


Also, it is possible that we manage to keep our costs down to 3000 BTC or less. Additionally, with the re-investment plan, we can keep on increasing our hash rate giving better results.

With many factors at play here, there is no question that there are risks. But it is better to get into the game now than later when ROI will take years as difficulty keeps on increasing.

You cannot estimate ROI with a static difficulty.  The hashrate will continue to increase every two weeks by a large factor - and likely at a ridiculous rate once the raw Avalon chips are available.  CONSERVATIVELY estimating you starting your mining the second week in July, if you somehow ordered today, got your chips in the 10 week shipping schedule projected by Avalon, and did all of your assembly, you are looking at a difficulty of no less than 35,000,000 and likely closer to 50,000,000. 

If you assume the lower 35 mil difficulty, and your overclocking is stable to the max of the chip (3,000,000 MH/S for your 10,000 chips), you will make about 300 bitcoins each week for the first two weeks for a total of 600 bitcoins. 

After those 2 weeks (which will be less than two weeks because the network will be solving blocks faster than every 10 minutes as more Avalon chips come online) the difficulty will jump by another 30% at least... so your next two weeks at 45,500,000 you'll make about 230 coins per week (you will now be at 1060 coins).

The following two weeks will be close to 60,000,000 difficulty... for 175 coins each week and a total of 1410 coins after six weeks of operation. 

Extending this estimate formula out to 3 months gets you to just over 2040 bitcoins in 3 months.

No one can know what the difficulty will be, but these projections aren't out of line and many think the hash rate will double each month until the end of the year and beyond.  I just think it's not reasonable to expect a ROI of 3500 coins within the next 10 to 12 months (or possibly ever) on 3000 GH/S even under the "favorable" conditions outlined above.

If you aren't starting until mid-July at the absolute earliest and you are trying to ROI in 3 months, you really can't have your all-in pricepoint set above 1400 btc.  Even at 2000 btc your product would be more palatable - but 3500 is quite high and I wouldn't expect to see your coins back for quite some time. 

This calculation completely omits the extra 15% admin fee, which will only hurt the numbers above when included.