Topic: PB Mining -- 5 year mining contracts! - page 123. (Read 379006 times)

A lot of the first ASIC mining equipment (65nm) was preordered in 2012-2013.  It was put into production during the last half of 2013.  I think the 24.93% increase on June 29th got a lot of people's attention, including mine.  I had a Butterfly Labs Jalapeno, and I decided it was time to sell it.  I felt the equipment was near the end of its useful life, and I still wanted to sell it for a nominal value.  I held on to it so long, because I never broke even with it.

Difficulty is determined by the amount of new mining equipment put into production versus the amount of old mining equipment taken out of production.  I think we had three small increases in a row as many of the initial ASICs, such as the Jalapeno, were removed.

Also the price of Bitcoin is another factor that determines difficulty.  If the value of Bitcoin drops, it may no longer be profitable for some mining equipment to mine.  It makes sense at that point to turn off the equipment and just buy the Bitcoins directly.  If the value of Bitcoin begins to skyrocket, you might see a lot of older equipment brought back online.

Perhaps a month ago, I determined that the average difficulty increase this year was about 16%, so that is what I use in my calculations.  For contracts purchased near the end of July, they need average future increases to be around 12% to break even.

When you buy a contract, the purchase price and the first few difficulty increases have the most impact on whether or not you break even.

I've also noticed that we also tend to underestimate difficulty increases.  In May, BFL Josh said that having 30B difficulty in September was ludicrous, but that will happen.  The ASIC market is relatively competitive and there is money to be made by designing and selling more efficient hardware.  It's Moore's Law at work.

This price does it mean that pb mining have difficulty to accept and manage new contracts. So with those increases avoid the big number of boughts had in all these times. 

You can state your opinion, as long as it fits in with others

Name calling is one of the ugly bits around these forums. I can say that I don;'t give a damn, but I still do in some way.

In the mean time, price has gone up once again, to BTC0.0033. Can't really say that I'm surprised, but it makes me wonder about the future. The next difficulty jump is estimated to be around 15%, Biomech's magic number (so far). Difficulty can not keep on growing as it was. Machines are getting too power hungry eventually, even for the Big Spenders. Next big milestone is power efficiency. Then we might see difficulty drops, but not before, I'm afraid. Even older equipment dropping out or moving to other coins will not bring difficulty down.

It is  bothersome that someone can not state their opinion with out someone calling them a plant. I am not a plant, I am mining on PB just like everyone else. Some of you have your terms mixed up also. R.O.I. means return on investment. Spouting off that your never going to reach R.O.I. is foolish. Your going to reach R.O.I. each Sunday no matter what. Breakeven  is when you got back the BTC that you paid for your contract. That is also going to be reached, most likely in near 26 weeks if you bought in June or July. If you live to this Sunday you will reach R.O.I.  Waiting 26 weeks more or less you will reach breakeven eventually.  I am not a plant, customer #6606.

i pm'd it to u

I can't do much, I'm not PBMining. Did they give you a reason at all? What did they say in the email?

i am not rich at all not in the least bit.. if i lose this much it is a huge amount

yes he did, can u find out if it is permanent- did u see my appology- we disagree alot but i have spent over $1100 dollars in btc and i am freaking out.

Thank you. Lets behave like humans should then.


LOL. What happened? Did they ban you and cancel your account?
Sorry about that. Did they give you a reason? This sure was an unexpected turn of events.
Also, if you hate me and you don't care about my opinion, you can use the "Ignore" button.

i disagree freedom of speech is not freedom to say what other people are willing to let you it is freedom to offend without others having the right to sensor or harm you..

bitcoin itself has been embraced by those who believe in absolute liberty..censoring or reporting people is fascism

i did not call the last so called girl (plant) stupid... i called byt411 stupid....i have told him over and over keep his stupid responses to himself...also he pretends to work for you and clever all the time and you never call him out on it..also you only attacked dissenting opinions and made no mention that i am correct about the difficulty and you tried to make it seem that like i did not comment during those lower difficulty increases... i still did comment because the price drops stopped during those lower increases...which means roi/profit still went down.... had they kept going some of the ground lost would have been briefly made up

i agree "If you don't like [pb] prices and you don't think you will make a positive ROI, don't buy"

yes dont buy so we agree .... just for the record i will get roi on my first due to conversion rate and then btc going up in value... also i have spent a great deal of time crafting and identifying facts and posts that would prove that pb is not a ponzi .. i also have never allowed others to believe i am under that impression in any of my posts...also i try to be the first person evry week to say that i have been paid.. i have even made it an un-official game on here...

but i feel like you could use some help managing pb... it has grown so much... its glory days of roi are gone.... have you ever looked at the price per gh 6months ago and looked at the dificulty on that day..then just calculated the difference between that day and today as a ratio(%) and then done the same for the price...the difference between those two numbers is what was lost

i will go back just to the middle of may. the price per gh was .0049 dificulty was 8,853,416,309 now it is 23,844,670,039 that is a 269% increase with a 36% price drop... over 230% difference for people to profit or roi since about 3 months ago... holly cow... that is a big big big big deal... but these mathematical observations have been used to prove the legitimacy of pb so your welcome...also i would like to point out that this is not an opinion

merged:

I tend to agree with your assessment, but I still do my calcs at 15%, for safety. Over a period of months, I think that is a safe hedge. I keep track to the best of my ability with what new hardware is coming down the pike, and the simple fact is that the huge difficulty jumps simply cannot continue unabated. Given the power costs of older equipment, I am gonna stick my neck out and say that within the next 8 months there will be at least one period where difficulty drops. I say this because the newer process nodes are simply not there. 14nm is not going to be supporting bitcoin or scrypt asics within 6 months, even if the design houses are ready to go. The Foundries are not, unless somebody can get an inside deal with AMD or someone like that. 20 nm is a short life process, intended from it's outset to be an interim solution. 28 nm is already reaching the end of it's life cycle, and the 45nm chips, while cheap to produce, are too power hungry for the long term.

I suspect we will start to see SHA256 alt coins start to get huge difficulties as people switch away from bitcoin. When that happens en masse with the older equipment, it will have a modest but noticeable effect on the bitcoin difficulty.

The difficulty is impossible to predict, and so profit is impossible to predict as well.  

For example, nobody saw this coming:

Aug 08 2014    19,729,645,941    5.30%    141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014    18,736,441,558    8.08%    134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014    17,336,316,979    3.08%    124,098,191 GH/s

Before this difficulty wind-down, rodeoclown was having a tantrum -- even though we were offering a very attractive entry point at that time.  If you don't like our prices and you don't think you will make a positive ROI, don't buy.  We believe the difficulty hikes will soon be back below 10%, since the total network hash rate is getting extremely large, and for that reason I believe our prices are still competitive.  If anyone expects 20% difficulty changes, then don't buy.  

We are not obligated to lower the price to directly reflect the difficulty drop -- that is not possible with increasing costs.   The good news, is everybody who mines for Bitcoins will experience the same such rise in cost, resulting in a slower expansion of the network.  It's all relative.

Also, everybody is free to express their concerns about the price, but calling everybody stupid is really getting old.  I respect the opinions that everybody has, but when there is name calling involved I recommend that everyone click "Report to moderator" so that we can put a stop to it.  

if you read what was written contracts in the 6th month old range were discussed.

here is a direct quote

"if difficulty increases 20% prices have to drop 20% just to stay the same-thats not even improving . so from going 6 months back if the difficulty increases were always higher than the price drops(and they were) things have only gotten worse for 6 months straight profits on pb have gone down-down down down- and only down, you cant even get a calculator to say you will break even- YOU WONT BREAK EVEN- now that the the value of btc has declined things are even worse"

no there is no more roi... and as far as dificulty goes because of the pre order culture businesses are able to raise capital for things they never deliver but create and then use to mine themselves the amount of mining has skyrocketed not slowed

i have an actual undergrad not just a "student of math and science" funny how all this positive newness is done by people with just a few posts...it called "plants" its all 1 or 2 people trying to make there opinions seem like they are part of a group consensus

so very simple math here

"if difficulty increases 20% prices have to drop 20% just to stay the same-thats not even improving"

END OF STORY. NO MATH CAN DISPROVE THAT.so if dif increases outpace price drops btc recovered/profits drops

anya whats your customer number.. i am sure if you have old contracts they did good but i just want to verify everything u said- and make sure u r real

Hi  My name is Anya, I'm a student of math and science. I've been reading many things here that don't add up and tend to be wild speculation with calculators which is producing inaccurate information.  I think we all agree bitcoin mining has seen better days, difficulty has soared, and mining going to be pretty difficult from here on. That being said, it is possible that any home or cloud mining might not be such a great thing to do in the future. What I disagree with here, is we have people saying these contracts will never reach break even or turn a profit. That just is not true. Math shows me, that all contracts bought in March have already broke even and are into profit. I have three contracts bought April 6 and 7th , next week they will reach break even on their 21 week.  In the weeks after that I have other contracts bought later in April and May, My Math shows me they will also break even, although some of them depending on where I bought them in the difficulty cycle ,may take a predicted 22 weeks.  Those are the facts, not speculation.   I also bought contracts each month and bought two in August.  Do I expect that in 21 weeks these will break even?  NO. I am predicting a 24 to 26 week break even for these. One last thought, I was involved with many investments in the past. I was a rocky road  filled with potholes. Sometimes I lost my investment, other times I was lucky to get 75% of it back, sometimes things worked out very well. When you look at your PB mining investment, think about it in terms of how many weeks will it take to break even. I see newcomers in here who act like they expect to be into profit after they been into this for two weeks. With any investment if in 5 or six months you have broken even and still have 4.5 years to go of weekly rewards, I would say your doing pretty good. Yes difficulty is quite steep, maybe the profits will be small, but still it is a profit and will continue for a long time. I'm a girl so please be polite.

What's interesting is that if anyone is going to have the best chance of breaking even with Bitcoin mining, it is going to be pbmining customers (and those of some competitors).  People who are buying their own mining equipment have higher costs and can't compete.

Eventually, people will temporarily stop buying mining contracts and equipment, because it is no longer profitable.  We can already see this happening here, as the general consensus in this thread is to no longer buy new contracts.

There is a longer lag time with pre-ordered equipment.  Customers have already committed to buying new equipment, and they may have to wait a month or longer to put it into production.  As a result, difficulty is still rising.

Difficulty will eventually level off until the next generation of cheaper and more efficient mining equipment hits the market.

I think there may be a time again in the future when the cost per GH will decrease significantly and the chance of profitability will increase.  I don't think the business model is necessarily failing.  It's just hitting a slow period.  I think things could turn around again.

well its bad because the business model (non-ponzi, i hate that even bringing it up) is failing and the funds are not sustaining growth

It's not an investment vehicle for them. They are providing a service of re-selling hashing power for a profit. I expect their prices don't care about ROI at all. They set their price based on their HASH rate and hosting costs. I'm actually surprised they change the price based on difficulty. Since I'm not sure what that has to do with the cost of buying/running the devices. If anything makes me suspicious of whether they are actually hashing, it is that.
 

byt411 stay the fu#k out of it...i already know how stupid you are and that you are a cry-baby... yes we can expect profit-that is 100% of what we can expect- there is nothing else to expect you dumb ass- when u see my post  dont reply again i already know how stupid your opinions are here is a good example- oyu say give btc to somebody so they can have profits by investing your btc that you wont get profits with ----idiot

Doesn't make any sense, if they wanted people to invest they wouldn't increase the prices, that makes it even worse.

i think, we , kindly need an explanation from pbmining admin about the ghs price went up.