Topic: People are too focused on history repeating itself (Read 460 times)

Majority of investors and traders rely on price history repeating itself that source of information motivated a lot of them to invest or tigger a trade, likely the price action of Bitcoin is mostly based on it past history behavior, next another halving of the coin is coming up speculation and prediction based on the same event in past shows a massive pump in the price of Bitcoin during that period thus this had motivated a lot of investors to buy and accumulate in the last Bear market, thus all these are basic criteria and factors that must be considered before taking a crypto investment or trading decision, an investor don't just invest blindly with the hope of earning quick money.

There is nothing wrong that we all hope and focus on history because it has happened three times and everyone has the right to expect history to repeat itself again. But we should not put all our hope in history repeating without a backup plan for the opposite scenario. I think everyone should have their own plan. For example, what will we do if history doesn't repeat itself and we don't have the bull season we expected? To me, if history doesn't repeat itself, it doesn't mean bitcoin will never go up in price. So I will continue to hold until bitcoin price increases.

You can't blame them either because most of us are hopeful about the bullish event to come. People are indeed holding their coins and it wasn't wasted and in vain, in fact, they got rewards that could make them say "This is it".

Well, we can't expect that everything will happen in the coming days similar to the past but what we have in mind is that Bitcoin will soon to bullish again.
I can still remember my first bullish experience last 2017-2018, the majority had been selling their coins earlier but the price continued to skyrocket reaching its ATH. Perhaps, it was an unexpected scenario but it happened the next bull season when the price made another breaking record, and that made them think that the next bull run would be high.

As we have witnessed and know that the market has a 4 year cycle, and it has repeated 3 times and people are expecting history to repeat again. But we don't have any rules or laws to guarantee that this will always happen. That means history may not repeat itself and we will create new history, which is entirely possible. Therefore, we have the right to expect history to repeat itself, but we should not be too subjective in thinking that it will definitely repeat itself.

It's understandable that you're concerned about history repeating itself, especially in the world of cryptocurrencies. Here are some insights to address your questions and provide some perspective:-

In the past Bitcoin bear market, there weren't many Black Swan events. Historically, the cryptocurrency market has faced challenges like regulatory changes and market sentiment shifts, but it's unusual for major global events like the COVID-19 pandemic to directly impact it.

You're correct that the Black Swan event in 2020 was indeed the COVID-19 pandemic. While we can't predict the future with certainty, the likelihood of another event on the scale of a global pandemic occurring again is relatively low. Markets have adapted to the reality of the pandemic, and it's not a guarantee that such an event will repeat in the near future.

Regarding the FTX Collapse, it's essential to remember that cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and susceptible to sudden shocks, but not every significant market event qualifies as a Black Swan. The concept of a Black Swan event is something unpredictable and rare. It's unlikely that these events are orchestrated solely to manipulate markets, as they have far-reaching consequences that go beyond cryptocurrencies.

I still think it will not be easy for bitcoin to continue rising from now on, and we will start a bull season from now on. We will still have other price drops until the halving event, but if one is expecting another dump to create a new bottom for bitcoin, I don't believe that will happen either. We have truly hit the bottom of this bearish cycle and what we are about to experience are only mild shakes that are not cause for concern. I don't know if there will be another black swan because it's the future so it's impossible to predict, but in my mind, the worst is over.

FTX collapse will cost him a maximum of 100 years, I don't think it a coincidence to stage such a stupid move just to hurt people, remember he has been lobbying politicians because of his political ambition and because of that his flat girlfriend, they destroy many homes and dreams, I'm not sure if FTX was planned in the first place and the debts surrounding them blow everything, some people wanted to gain from the collapse and that's why an insider leaked the financial status of the exchange, you remembered that so many funds were moved through back door, some people believe it was Sam and some people think it was part of the team that wanted to get a share of the pyramid scheme.

I can say that COVID was a mechanical virus, it was engineered to destroy things because the source was from China when investigations were carried out and what it destroyed the most, was the traditional market, almost every stock in the market was down to zero and bitcoin been an alternative to them crashed as well out of fear because people need food and health during that time, when there is war, drought and health concerns, investments doesn't matter those times.

Bitcoin is maturing as we digress over the future, we don't know what tomorrow pregnant but I can say with confidence that such things might be difficult to see around again and that is why I'm skeptical about how this year bull run will grow like the past ROI we have seen, I'm of the opinion people should expect less from the next bull run. 3X max is what I think might happen.  

The thing with black swans is that they cannot be predicted and they could be anything that shakes the foundations of the economy and the world, not only a pandemic, and while black swans are rare we cannot really discard the possibly of another one appearing at any moment, still I think bitcoin is strong enough to withstand it, as even if the price went down very quickly on March of 2020, bitcoin recovered and it reached a new series of ATHs.

Events like the FTX Collapse (anyway f*ck you SBF, and you deserved being jailed for 115 years), only has a short term effect in the markets.

When COVID struck the world, and every country went to lockdown, people panicked, and so does the market, but after that, it went up, and up, and up, until we've seen it going to as high as ~$69,000. As for the FTX collapse, it might be the final event that might cause the market to dump before going higher, and higher again, but who knows. Maybe the Blackrock Spot Bitcoin ETF application being rejected would have a much greater impact not only in the crypto market, but all of the markets than the FTX collapse.

Well, anything can happen in the market, and that's the reason I always think that there's a chance that what happened in the past might not happen in the future. After all, past performances doesn't mean the same in the future. Criticize me, but I'm a believer of the 4-year cycle because I've seen it happen twice. I just don't expect too much on it though, and I'm always ready if the other thing happens.

Sheeple are going to sheep bro.

But I think the big money boys are going to push BTC super high have the sheeple fomo in and bust them wide open.

This time we will do some really high number and some really big drops.

up to 500k back down to 75k

There doesn't need to be a black swan event and people should not expect something like COVID-19 to happen again because it was disastrous for the whole world, many many lives were lost, and people lost their loved ones because of the virus and its effects. And we have already seen Bitcoin touching $16k in this cycle, what else would be a lower bottom for people who are expecting that? We have already been through that phase and people should know that.

Expecting that Bitcoin will go down again from here and mark another bottom below $16k is unrealistic and if that happens, we are not having a bull run after the halving event this time around because it will take years for the price to recover again from that point as it already took more than a year for it to reach this position from $16k.

There is nothing to ignore - everything is still at risk and each of us needs to consider the risks as best we can. History may or may not repeat itself at all - but everything is always a possibility. Markets will be impacted by many things whether they are bad or not - but we no longer expect major FUD that cause severe market crashes to occur ahead of the halving or after.

Let's hope FOMO is more likely than FUD and heightened concerns about losing value - be optimistic and diversify your risk by only investing in the long term instead of short term volatility.

The global coronavirus pandemic has left its mark, but people are behaving as they do in situations of fear. They want maximum security and prepare for it as best they can, and in this situation they didnt believe in Bitcoin, which is strange. The selling of Bitcoin and on that one day in March 2020, Bitcoin go down about -35%. What Im trying to say is that people are not going to change, they often act the same and thats why I think history is repeating itself. Quite simply.

The crypto market does have its own cycles, bearish, bullish, and in between. There will definitely be lots of events during this event. Even during a bearish era, there will usually be some news that is categorized as black swam events, whether it is directly related to the crypto market or not. However, if you look at the Covid incident, it is truly an extraordinary event throughout the world, not only for crypto markets, but more into the real world of humans. The crisis that occurred was not only about the economy but also health and various other crises that occurred during the Covid period. Until finally conditions could improve and we could escape from it.

On the other hand, there was some FUD and also negative news that really surprised us during the bearish period, which made the feelings of many people in the crypto world even worse at that time, and made the market really drop. And in the end, it can return to normal and fight again like now. Previously, in the bearish period of the past, there was also various bad news, one of which was the XRP problem, and others. In my opinion, in the future, it is possible that incidents like this will occur again, maybe not exactly the same, but maybe one day there will be FUD that really shakes the crypto world directly again. I don't know if FUD like this is deliberate or not, but in almost every bearish era, there will be a big FUD that complements it.

Bitcoin market is known to have a 4 year cycle.  Having a cycle means things will keep on repeating itself in a loop.  This simply means that the previous market movement will likely reflect on the present and future movement thus the idea of history repeats itself is justified.

For those who are wondering what black swan is, this article[1] is a good read  it also give an example of an event that can be considered as one of the black swan of cryptocurrency.  It is all about a rare incident that affect the crypto market negatively.  Thinking about it, I think the FTX event is not the only one good example of that thing, there is also this Terra Luna collapse and many other centralized services that file bankruptcy and affect the market negatively.

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[1] https://woo.org/blog/en/what-are-black-swan-events-and-how-to-be-prepared

The thing about Bitcoin is that it’s literally programmed to be cyclical. The halving nearly mandates that the future will rhyme with the past. This will be true until it isn’t, and when it is no longer true the losses of investment for mining companies will be so great that they are almost forced to prop up the value of Bitcoin to stay alive.

History repeating itself is possible but not all the time. The idea of black swan reverting the price of bitcoin and possibly heading back to the expected bottom price is not possible at this time. Considering what is happening, bitcoin price will continue to go up, drop a little, and move up again, even till halving, and afterwards, until the end of the bull run.

The crypto market is currently fixated on the spot Bitcoin ETF approval and the mood is positive. What if the opposite happens, can we talk about a black swan effect? I think yes. In the absence of a confirmation and a strong perception in the crypto market that will perhaps start a bull run, the markets can be expected to react as sharply as covid and ftx. In this case, it is inevitable that we will experience the black swan effect. With a negative decision, a new FUD will be created and institutions will leave the market. Because a negative news in a market that is clamped on ethics approval will accelerate the exit of more institutions from the market, weaken the increase in competition and slow down the visibility of cryptocurrencies.

So what’s your point? There will always be some unexpected stuff happening in the markets that’s just how life is. Otherwise everybody would know the next move in the markets and nobody would bet against it. In this situation nobody would make any money because everyone would be on the same side of the trade. Barcelona F.C. has to lose every once in a while so those guys who make surprise bets can win sometimes.

Bitcoin will go up and down like it always did before. We shouldn’t focus on the prices that much. The fundamentals are way more important. As long aa bitcoin network is up and running, there is nothing to worry about.

The price of Bitcoin would keep moving whether bullishly or bearish but what I know is that we should be expecting a bull market sooner before the end of the this year. It is true that the market is still ranging and this would be a good time for us to buy now as a low and affordable price so that we can sell when the bull market finally comes. We need to keep our eyes on what is about to come not the silence movement that us happening in the market. Bullish would be a moon coin soon so we don't have to panic at all even for one second.