People are too focused on history repeating itself - page 2.

khiholangkang

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Quote from: Cryptmuster on November 05, 2023, 03:50:32 AM

The Covid dump had a much greater impact on the market than the FTX collapse, so it seems to me that comparing these events in terms of significance is not very correct. Frankly, I expect that we have yet to encounter a black swan in this cycle and this will be the last major dump before the bull market begins. It’s difficult for me to say what this could be, perhaps some kind of new pandemic, or a significant escalation of the military conflict, but so far Bitcoin is not very responsive to any negative news, which means it’s not time yet.

So far, Bitcoin is not so responsive with some that occur in the world today, some of them such as The Fed still maintain the benchmark interest rates with fairly high numbers, besides that the Middle East conflict and began to heat up to get a reaction from a neighboring country to take part In this conflict, it does not make Bitcoin shifted to the previous price.
I think for today the bullish encouragement is greater than bearish, because we will move to Halving Bitcoin, we will also look forward to ETF Bitcoin present among institutional investors that have the potential to increase the mass adoption of Bitcoin spots to stock investors, gold and others.

But to be a concern also that Binance has several problems that have not been completed, I feel afraid also if Binance follows like FTX, it will give a big blow to the market if it occurs.

Quote from: AbuBhakar on November 05, 2023, 04:01:35 AM

History repeating itself is common scenario in crypto market in both bullrun and bearish market since there’s always a correction after a pump and a recovery after dump. There’s nothing wrong to think about that. It’s only wrong if you just keep thinking on it that result you to unable to purchase crypto just because you wait for that bottom.

I believe people that think like this are those who will purchase at the top when they are already FOM O when Bitcoin pump hard.

I agree with your opinion, but the conclusion is not on Fomo, because in my opinion he analyzes because of doubts that exist in him so he calculates it, he may be more careful in investing. Waiting for the lowest price today in the current cycle is silly, because we have touched it at the $ 15K level, and that is the end of 2022.

ZAINmalik75

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Quote from: Z390 on November 05, 2023, 03:41:58 AM

1. In the past Bitcoin bear market, how many black swan event happened at the time?

I don't get in what manner you said Covid was the black swan for the crypto market, because in Covid the trading volume increased, people sitting at home started to trade in crypto, and they got motivated by its usage. But talking hypnotically, if COVID was the black swan in 2020, then the Chinese ban were the black swan back in time. which caused the crypto market to lose a lot of attraction. The events were around 6 to 10 times, I think it's a hard guess.

Quote from: Z390 on November 05, 2023, 03:41:58 AM

2. I did my own research and black swan event started in 2020 and it's also in the chart history, I could be wrong but correct me if I am, but the black swan event happens cos of COVID in 2020, what makes you believe that another will happen?

How can you call covid the only black swan event because according to Wikipedia

Quote from: Z390 on November 05, 2023, 03:41:58 AM

3. What if the Black Swan event of this present bear market was the FTX Collapse?

I think it was and then the lawsuits from the SEC against different cryptocurrencies can be count as Black swan.

jeraldskie11

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Quote from: Z390 on November 05, 2023, 03:41:58 AM

2. I did my own research and black swan event started in 2020 and it's also in the chart history, I could be wrong but correct me if I am, but the black swan event happens cos of COVID in 2020, what makes you believe that another will happen?

It does not imply that if a disaster or tragedy occurs, the price of cryptocurrency will completely collapse. In fact, if you stock, there is a good chance that the price will fall significantly. And cryptocurrency is not the same as equities or FX. If something awful happens, I believe that the price of cryptocurrency will rise due to its volatility.

Quote

What if the first one ( 2020 crash ) was an unexpected crash to manipulate the masses and the Second one is to make people keep waiting and waiting for something that's not coming until it's too late?

I feel that there is always market manipulation. We can't always tell when and where the manipulation occurs, but we can take steps to prevent being deceived. Backtested plans combined with discipline are very important.

Crypt0Gore

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When the market is bullish everyone then bullish and when it's bearish everyone turn bearish, it's almost like people don't want the market to dump from here on, you'd better to lose guide, because people who believe the bear market is over are the next group of people that will leave the market if a last effective dump happens.

I am not going to let the fear of market dump to rob me of my crypto assets, 2020 seem like a bad year but thanks to that Covid many people are able to buy Bitcoin for a cheaper price, after the crash it doesn't even take too long before the recovery starts, it's like the world was waiting for that opportunity, every big dollars found it's way into the market and Bitcoin started surging hard.

It's possible that the same thing will happen in 2024, and it's also possible that we already seen the bottom in 2022 but why care so much about this? If it happened you should take the advantages because it's a new opportunity, oh yes it could happen, so make sure you gather some USD so that you won't miss the opportunity.

danadc

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What I believe is that a way can and wants to be created to be able to do everything better like in 2017 that everyone expected , and we are in a time similar to that because the price of bitcoin rose in the month of December and after that it was when in that time it reached $20k and that was a boom everyone believed that it was going to reach $50k and everyone bought and bought bitcoin, I want to repeat that, what I don't want it to be repeated is that then the price went up a lot because I suffered a lot time to rise again, the good thing is that when bitcoin rises , it reaches higher and higher, because then it reached 70 thousand USD and that was something that I liked.

abel1337

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Quote from: philipma1957 on November 05, 2023, 10:51:07 AM

Quote from: hugeblack on November 05, 2023, 06:18:34 AM

The black swan event in 2020 was one of the events that caused the price to make a rapid correction, but the price was able to rise again due to subsequent economic policies that approved stimulus packages and it was easy to obtain loans with an interest rate close to zero, and this matter may happen again if the Federal Reserve begins to reduce interest rates initially. From the second quarter of next year.
Therefore, during the period of 2020, I think that the price dealt poorly with one event, which was the collapse of Luna more than FTX.

if things go well, history will repeat itself, but it will be closer to what happened in 2016/2017.

I never have be a super bull.

but if we are in the

2015
2016
2017 loop

then
2023. 42k dec 1 48k dec 31
2024. a quick jan sell off to 40k a slow grind up to 65k by dec 2024
2025. at least 500k by nov-dec

So I am hoping to see a super bull market.

This is wild but I lowkey wanting to get at that level. I personally expect to reach 100k next bull market, expecting it to go past 100k is what motivates me to continue to accumulate more bitcoin but yeah it's hard to really pinpoint what price bitcoin can go, all we have is the historical events and charts that we can use to speculate where we are headed.

Reaching 500k as a bitcoin price never really slipped my mind, though I hope that we can see it next bull market LOL.

philipma1957

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Quote from: hugeblack on November 05, 2023, 06:18:34 AM

The black swan event in 2020 was one of the events that caused the price to make a rapid correction, but the price was able to rise again due to subsequent economic policies that approved stimulus packages and it was easy to obtain loans with an interest rate close to zero, and this matter may happen again if the Federal Reserve begins to reduce interest rates initially. From the second quarter of next year.
Therefore, during the period of 2020, I think that the price dealt poorly with one event, which was the collapse of Luna more than FTX.

if things go well, history will repeat itself, but it will be closer to what happened in 2016/2017.

I never have be a super bull.

but if we are in the

2015
2016
2017 loop

then
2023. 42k dec 1 48k dec 31
2024. a quick jan sell off to 40k a slow grind up to 65k by dec 2024
2025. at least 500k by nov-dec

So I am hoping to see a super bull market.

ImThour

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Bitcoin Bottom was at $15.4k

And they are correct, Bitcoin goes on a 4 year cycle and that's what is going to happen once again and history will repeat however not each move will be of similar percentage gain/decrease.
With the help of previous cycle charts, I was able to decode the down move of at least 50%. And it went correct. And the up move of 10x will be correct too from the bottom price of $15.4k really soon.

kryptqnick

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Covid was unexpected by the public but actually predictable and predicted a few years earlier based on scientific evidence as a major potential challenge for humanity. But looking past that, Bitcoin recovered pretty quickly and managed to go on a bull run when the world was still frozen by the pandemic. It was around $8k-$9k before the pandemic announcement, then it hit nearly $5k following the announcement, but by the beginning of May (so, less than 2 months later) it was back to its pre-pandemic level.
In my opinion, it shows that even a pretty huge 'black swan' event can be handled really fast and really well by the market. 2 months is nothing, it was a really fast recovery. And as for FTX, its impact was way smaller, as others have already mentioned.

Z-tight

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I think we are over the effects of ftx collapse and i don't believe it would have any effect on the bull run, except another exchange bites the dust during the period leading up to the halving event, and that is something that can happen, but for now i cannot predict that.

We cannot predict the future, and all we have is history to have an idea of what could happen, if there is a black swan event that happens during the halving period, then it would be an unexpected one that wasn't part of the 'script' in history and we have to accept it. I believe the present economic situation could also affect the halving, but we have to wait and see.

Woodie

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Quote from: Z390 on November 05, 2023, 03:41:58 AM

Fast forward to this bear market, many people really believe that we haven't seen the bottom yet, and some believe that the next black swan event will bring the last bottom for Bitcoin, I do have some questions about all this.

Tbh this bottom everyone keeps talking about is to generalized!!

If people missed the price of the 100s which was a real discounted price then let's forget about it coming this low as many users are more than ready to buy should it go lower than expected which will push it back up..

So whatever bottom we are anticipating Is what we seeing now.

Quote from: Z390 on November 05, 2023, 03:41:58 AM

1. In the past Bitcoin bear market, how many black swan event happened at the time?

If we are going to add big exchange hacks to be black swan events then we could consider Mtgox and Ftx hack to be such events...

Quote from: Z390 on November 05, 2023, 03:41:58 AM

2. I did my own research and black swan event started in 2020 and it's also in the chart history, I could be wrong but correct me if I am, but the black swan event happens cos of COVID in 2020, what makes you believe that another will happen?

In some circles the categorise the COVID19 pandemic to be both a white and black swan event because it would have being contained in China had they blown the whistle early but they kept about it until it spread like wildfire then the world was made aware of this way to late which caused unforeseeable damage.

Quote from: Z390 on November 05, 2023, 03:41:58 AM

3. What if the Black Swan event of this present bear market was the FTX Collapse?

I don't know, regulators would have picked on Sam's fraudulent activities especially that financial crimes all happen in the past and not present for them to be detected ...and him not being a well experienced CEO in the crypto circles it was expected that he would f@#& up which imo makes this a White Swan event.

Litzki1990

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People definitely want the price of Bitcoin to go back to where it once was. We who are Bitcoin users never want the value of Bitcoin to go down rather we always hope that the value of Bitcoin goes up a lot. Bitcoin Price Hits Record High We want Bitcoin to touch its high price again. The crypto market is completely different because you cannot say anything with certainty here. Although we are waiting for the market to move to a better position, the market can go to any position. Don't know if history will repeat itself but we want the Bitcoin market to stay at its peak price again.

Zaguru12

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Quote from: adultcrypto on November 05, 2023, 04:09:43 AM

The peculiarities of next year's events are undeniable. Those still expecting another dump before the anticipated bull market might be left behind. As we approach next year, it is becoming increasingly clear that we will see many positive news that will make next year's halving the greatest we have seen so far. Just imagine Bitcoin ETF approval by Jabuaty 2024 following Bitcoin halving by April, we don't need to think deep to realise that this will be exceptionally explosive.

Seriously it will be too risky to wait for a dump maybe next year to invest in bitcoin, my advice has always been invest or accumulate whenever you have the opportunity there is no perfect time to do that than when you have the funds. Although if you ask me I would say yes I expect a bitcoin correction after all this pump before the main halving it self.

Yes history doesn’t repeat itself but as for bitcoin I don’t see any other thing that can actually give one a very good speculative idea than just looking back at the past history. The likes of FTX or any other exchange collapse are just short time hype, the real black swan will be when we are face with a prolonged recession and interest rates gets higher, or when a world war breaks out. Aside this two cases bitcoin wouldn’t face any major fall

bittraffic

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Bitcoin usually don't need a blackswan, it only needs the halving for it to kick start the bull run. But lets say the blackswan in 2020 was indeed the Covid, during that time people received their stimulus packages. The get money for free.

This time there is no stimulus but somebody figured its the ETF that is going to be the blackswan. If we are to keep waiting for it then maybe its not really the blackswan we wait for.

Natsuu

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Quote from: AbuBhakar on November 05, 2023, 04:01:35 AM

History repeating itself is common scenario in crypto market in both bullrun and bearish market since there’s always a correction after a pump and a recovery after dump. There’s nothing wrong to think about that. It’s only wrong if you just keep thinking on it that result you to unable to purchase crypto just because you wait for that bottom.

I believe people that think like this are those who will purchase at the top when they are already FOM O when Bitcoin pump hard.

Right. It is important to recognize historical patterns in the crypto market but waiting too long for the perfect moment can lead to missed opportunities. Timing is crucial and being overly cautious might result in buying at higher prices during FOMO situations. It's essential to find a balance between analyzing trends and making informed decisions.

Frankolala

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I don't think that there will be any black swan anymore as bitcoin price has seen the worst in this circle and the market has gotten to the minimal bear price when we had the crash of FTX and Luna. I don't also believe that bitcoin price can dip to 20k again in this circle as we are expecting the approval of Bitcoin ETF by next year January. If this is done successful, we will witness the price of bitcoin pumping because a lot of people will adopt bitcoin.

History repeating itself, doesn't mean that catastrophes are bound to happen at the same time in bitcoin circle, what it means is that bitcoin price will always have an ATH at every four years and there are events that will always lead to high demand of bitcoin and low demand of bitcoin since it is a commodity.

Russlenat

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Sometimes, we tend to overthink things. If we look at the history of the Bitcoin market, we see a simple pattern: the bear market and the bull market. It doesn't matter if people think a bear market or a price drop is coming because those are usually temporary. Eventually, the bull market returns, and people start to get excited, leading to FOMO and making the market more bullish.

Drawesome

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Quote from: Z390 on November 05, 2023, 03:41:58 AM

3. What if the Black Swan event of this present bear market was the FTX Collapse?

I guess Taleb would insult you for calling that a Black Swan event Grin

. I mean, because in this space at that time, everyone was swimming naked (maybe except for Binance, who was the FTX killer).

I tend to think that we haven't touched the bottom, especially because there are still many projects overpriced, not just shits, but legitimate projects that are just projects not worth the billions shown by the Market Cap.

Anyways, I love the subject: People are too focused on history repeating itself. There are so many new variables in the equation now compared to four years ago: all the DeFi with collaterals, agents with resources arbitrating, etc. I have no idea what would happen, but I know for a fact that nobody does (except for the ones who could pull some triggers, although they won't know the end impact).

tranthidung

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Quote from: Z390 on November 05, 2023, 03:41:58 AM

Fast forward to this bear market, many people really believe that we haven't seen the bottom yet, and some believe that the next black swan event will bring the last bottom for Bitcoin, I do have some questions about all this.

We can not find the bottom but we can find bottom area where we can do accumulation and wait for a bottom confirmation then a bull run starts from it.

Quote

1. In the past Bitcoin bear market, how many black swan event happened at the time?

I don't care but you can find black swan events or fud attempts that affected the market in previous bear markets.
https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/
https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/bitcoin-is-dead/
How to find?

Use the Bitcoin chart, find big daily red candle and search for information about possible black swan events, fuds around that day with two above websites.

The Bitcoin Crash of 2021 Compared to Past Sell-Offs

Latviand

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Quote from: Darker45 on November 05, 2023, 07:09:16 AM

You are speaking as if 2020 was a bad year for Bitcoin. It wasn't. There was COVID, yeah, but it was a fantastic year for Bitcoin. It was as though there wasn't a global pandemic happening, wreaking havoc in every country's economy. The year opened with the price of Bitcoin at around $6,000. By the time the year closed, the price had already risen more than $20,000. And then the rise continued the following year even though it was still a pandemic year. Although the price corrected around the middle of 2021, it quickly recovered and registered an ATH by the last quarter.

That's probably because OP has some bad experience at that time and OP surrounded himself with people that has experienced the same thing so OP concluded that 2020 was a bad year. I guess it depends on how you look at it, if you're a bearish investor at that time, you're probably creaming your pants during the black swan event but if you're not one then you're probably having a different reaction. In regards to the title, I guess that people are way too focused on the repetition in history is by the fact that bitcoin's pattern throughout it's Genesis is almost close to being the same, a halving being followed by a huge pump that resulted in a new ATH, if that's the pattern that keeps on repeating, you can't really blame the people if they're focused on that alone.

Topic: People are too focused on history repeating itself - page 2. (Read 460 times)