Topic: Poker: hands analysis, useful stuff and general discussions - page 2. (Read 868 times)

Result of the last hand:

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I can't call to mind the last situation when a newbie won a major tournament. Today, even full amateurs, who wins events like EPT, PartyLive or WSOP, usually have a big experience. The nearest examples I managed to remember are Jan Bendik, who has first cash on thehendonmob dated in 2005, and Sebastian Sorensson, who claims him to already play for a few years. I can't understand what exactly mostkey means, but now newbies really need a lot of luck to start winning right after learning rules.

For example, today is holding the final table of PartyPoker Millions Barcelona Main Event. The list of finalists: https://uk.pokernews.com/tours/partypoker-live/partypoker-live-millions-grand-final-barcelona/main-event/chips.htm
If you check their results on thehendonmob, you can see everybody are very experienced in playing live tournaments.

He just wrote a great shitpost.

A newbie can win a big poker tournament, although it is unlikely.


I don’t know about the difference between those models, but I would go all in. I prefer playing aggressive during the final stages because the price structures rewards aggression. Again, if someone calls, you are going to be behind on average, because he is going to have an OP or higher cards but many times you’ll get the blinds.

So, did you mean to say "sometimes" or "always", because those words contradict each other.

If you play poker long enough you can eventually notice that those aggressive bluffers don't last long at the table. They may be winning during the first 20-30 minutes but they never make it to the top places. Poker is not a game of pure chance but a game of skill. Proper bluffing requires skill, it's not that simple.

Can a newbie, having no clue, win a prestigious poker tournament? I personally doubt that, but I think we should ask HugoStiglitz about the probability of such a win.

although this is very helpful, but we should be able to know where there are some people who ignore the guide and do not want to read. always wanted to jump into gambling. poker is a game that is identical to the luck of the card. and sometimes beginners who ventured to do the bluff game always get the luck

I would go all-in in this situation.


I presume that professional players rarely bluff on the pre-flop. It is most likely that BTN had good cards in the beginning but seeing that the flop is no good news for him and seeing me(Hero) checking he decided to scare me off. So I would make him think I have three of a kind by going all-in.

P.S. I was reading the thread and started writing my reply before reading further. Now I see that I was right on BTN having good cards, but I was wrong with going all-in, I'd lost everything.

The thing is tho if you're gonna play T8s oop then c/c flop just to fold when there's pressure on the turn, then it would be better to fold preflop.

And it's not like you're check/shoving just top pair in that spot.  You could do it with strong hands like your sets as well as semi bluffs like oesd's.

The dead money in the pot makes it a profitable shove even if villain was gonna fold his bluffing range anyway imho.

I had a nearly same opinion, but I was not sure what range my opponents are going to call vs my all-in. It's quite a specific ICM spot and, unfortunately, free Simple Nash doesn't allow to calculate equilibrium on a postflop, so the only way to analyze this hand I have is to do it intuitively. Result:

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Another satellite spot. 18 players are left, top-10 get 215$ ticket. I am on the 2nd place at the start of the hand and there are 5-6 players with nearly same stacks 2-3bb lower than me and 4 players with 3-4bb stacks. Average stack is 185k, average stack for top-11 (bubble) - ~304k. It's new table, so I don't have any information on my opponents.



That's what Simple Nash tells about openshove:




Does anybody know, why there is so big difference between results of calculation equilibrium on Malmuth-Harville and Malmuth-Weitzman models? I was pretty sure open-shove should be a +EV decision. The only question was about comparing different actions and choosing the most profitable. But after calculation, I became really confused. It will be great if somebody can explain the difference between 2 models. If it appears Malmuth-Weitzman to be right, what do you think about a plan for the hand? Should I play raise/call, raise/fold vs someone or maybe limp is the best option here?

I agree for the most part but the fact that Hero is short stacked makes going all in the best option here.  Calling is bad since the J, Q, K and the A could hit villain's range.  We are also oop, so c/c with our stack would make our hand hard to play.

If ever we are vs an over pair then we have 5 outs for two pair and trips, plus the back door outs you mentioned.

Edit:  And there's enough dead money in the pot to make this a good shove.

Bump.

I haven't seen many experts in poker on this forum so, I'm not surprised that this hand didn't get any other reply but I'm interested in knowing what OP says about it.

All in because of the stack to pot ratio (2 to 1). I am the short stack at the table and I need to protect from straight draws and high cards. If he calls, most times he is going to have a better hand (like OP), but I still have backdoor flush draw and backdoor gutshout, lol!

The problem is, I don’t get value from weaker hands and don’t make stronger hands fold, but I can’t think of a better way of playing the hand.
 
If I call, it is quite likely that a high card will appear in the turn (around 51% chance) and then I have to check because donking has no sense and if the rival bets I have to guess if he is bluffing or not to decide if I fold. Most times he is going to have overcards, and checking means he can check behind and get two free cards. I see less likely straight draws with 79 or 57 but those hands would probably pay all in flop, and again, I don't want to check turn because he can have two free cards to complete the draw.

I finally managed to reload some hands to the new database, so I am ready to start hand discussions. Hope, it will increase an interest to the topic. Sometimes I will share hands with stopping action on the decision I doubt to avoid result oriented opinions. Today I have quite a non-standard spot to discuss.

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Top 3 of live event satellite. First and second places get 5.5k$ worth packages on EPT event, third place gets something like 80$.

1) What would you do here - all-in or just call?
2) Why would you choose this option?
3) If you choose to call, what are your plans for turn and river?

Thanks. I used StarsHelper and heard about others, but forgot to include them in the list. Added all three and three more:

1. 888Caption
Same, as StarsCaption, but for 888

2. PartyCaption
Same, as StarsCaption and 888Caption, but for PartyPoker

3. Hand2Note
Much more powerful than HM and PT stats collecting and outputting soft. I've never used it, so it will be better if you read about all its advantages in the guide on the website.

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The final table of the EPT Sochi Main Event has been set. There are no big names, but, for example, the chipleader Arseniy Karmatskiy is a well known online as "josef_shvejk" and he is currently on 15 place of Worldwide and on 2 place of Russian Pocketfives MTT rankings. The cards-up broadcast will resume in 7 hours on pokerstars.tv and PS youtube channel.

Add more programs to transfer your stacks from chips to big blind (bb)
I know three programs:
1) starshelper (I recommend it is her)
official site: https://starshelper.net
The program is multilanguage.
screen:

2) starscaption
official site: https://sites.google.com/site/starscaption/home
screen:

3) Jivaro (a good program for advanced poker fans)
official site: https://jivaro.com/
screen:


The programs are paid, but have a period of free use.
Good luck at the poker tables friends!

As it was said above, Holdem Manager and PokerTracker are necessary for those, who have the intention to make money playing poker not only on microstakes. If you play something like NL5 or 2$ tournaments, you may beat them without such soft and earn for the full version to go higher. But if you are not sure of your skill, there is another way - to register in some room with HM invite and get money for buying as a rakeback: http://www.holdemmanager.com/store/poker-sites.php

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Added some links to the OP. All of them were already mentioned here. It will be great, if anybody knows skillful and successful teams to fill this section. Unfortunately, I currently know just 4.

1. Link about getting HM free.

2. GTO software
2.1. PioSolver
2.2. SimplePostflop

3. Stacking and coaching teams
3.1. bitB Stacking (MTT team founded by Patrick Leonard aka "Pleno1", "pads1161")
3.2. FunFarm (The biggest Russian MTT team)
3.3. SmartSpin (Spin&Go team)
3.4. StealPhoenix (The best Russian Spin&Go team)

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Cards-Up broadcasts from EPT Sochi are starting tomorrow. It will last for 5 days and if I understand it correctly, this time only English and Russian commentators will be available.
http://www.pokerstars.tv/en/tv/

Almost everyone has been using poker tracking software and HUDs since around 2005 or so.  It was right when the poker teaching sites like Cardrunners, one of the first, started gaining some popularity...

It's also what tightened the games. 

Yes, and it takes some time to know how to use the programs, at first is a bit confusing and you’ll have to learn how to configure them, decide which stats to use, to adjust the size, etc. But once you do that and start using them, it pays the price.

It's still quite an investment for other people, especially to those that are just starting to get the hang of it. But the free trial period might make them enough money to be able to  buy the license in time, but of course for sure there is a very steep learning curve here and it would take a long time to be able to play well. Heck we can even say that poker itself takes a lot of time to master.

Holdem manager 2 is just 99$. If you get the small stakes version is just 59$:

http://www.holdemmanager.com/buy/211/holdem-manager-2

Poker tracker 4 costs the same as HM2: https://www.pokertracker.com/products/PT4/purchase.php

So, it's not a lot of money. You can download the trial versions and use them for free for a month.

If you only play for entertainment, you don't need them, but if you want to make money they are necessary not only because you will have more advantage versus bad players, but also because you are in disadvantage versus other players if you don't use them. Nowadays people use them even in micro limits.

Hey,

Thanks for the tracking programs!
I've never used one because I didn't find any one free and I don't play enough to feel like a 500$ program is worth it.
But I'm pretty sure it's a very good data base to work.

Fact is that yes techniques are important but there is nothing universal.
So you have to gather your own data to know which techniques work on your play style ^^

I myself professionally play spin and go on pokerstars. I can explain the basic strategy for this kind of poker. Even earlier I played a lot of Omaha and I know a lot of good information about it. If you are interested, let me know!