Topic: POLL: Do you still expect a big rally in the next 32 days? (Read 4254 times)

Seems all hope is lost, price is going down down down. Maybe people expect $250 prices by the end of the year?

I would love to see 200, I would buy INSTANLY at least 50.

I expect a rally between early to mid 2015. Not before.

Expecting continue sell off on every small to mini rally.

Don't forget Ethereum developers still control over 25k of BTC. They are going to cash them out eventually for payday.

Great scenario except the numbers aren't like this:

"Here is a basic example with just-for-fun figures:

- Invest 1 million USD in hardware & electricity for 3 months
- Mine BTC for 2 million USD during those 3 months
- Sell this BTC at market"

Right now....I'm talking today....they are more like this:

"
- Invest 1 million USD in hardware & electricity for 3 months
- Mine BTC for 0.735 million USD during those 3 months
- Sell this BTC at market"

$1m buys about 250 units of 3TH each....approx 500,000w of power needed.
Ie. now you need specialized facilities with a huge industrial power supply as well as high quality electrical installation.

According to most calculators...after 3 months you are still in the hole about $250k. + rent + building improvements


And there is no "more efficient" hardware for the guy in your scenario to switch to...the most efficient miners today are still not profitable given ANY calculation of 3 months or more...you literally cannot mine today at any scale for profit. (Unless you are designing and manufacturing your own hardware.)

So, as a diminishing returns miner you either turn off your current mining hardware....or continue mining at a higher cost than you could buy coins for and hold all mined coins, hoping and praying the price goes through the roof to cover your losses.

In any case, the miners would be better to shut off their hardware and use the electricity cost to buy coins on the exchange with no risk.

The only variable there is that now you have $1m tied up in rapidly depreciating mining hardware.

Ask yourself this, and answer honestly: "Would I be willing to spend a thousand dollars or more for a single Bitcoin? Would I be willing to spend a hundred dollars or more for a tenth of a Bitcoin?"

If the answer is no, you'll understand why we won't have more rallies. There simply aren't enough suckers left. The Average Joes have rejected Bitcoin, with good reason. Bitcoin is inferior to credit cards in every way. It's a completely inferior, unsafe, useless, slow, inefficient, unstable payment system with zero user-friendliness, zero credibility, zero customer protection and a bad reputation to boot. It's no wonder it's failing. Good riddance.

Bitcoin rallies are a thing of the past. They were all caused by Willybot and similar Mt.Gox manipulation schemes. With Gox out of the picture, there's nothing that can fuel new rallies. Thus the price continues downwards, as it has done since early last December. Get used to it. Sell your stash now, while there's still some value left in your soon-to-be-worthless coins.

Not too sure if we will get a big rally to be honest but we may see something of an increase in the price within the next 56 days. It will be nice to see a price rise within that time after the time we have spent seeing this current drop.

Big rally in within two months? No -- but the mid-term reasons for price increase are plentiful.

Mark (IndiaMikeZulu)

I expect the end of the falls in price time and some recover, because the summer is ending.

But can't see reason for a rally. Maybe back to 600's, but its not really a rally, is it?

Seems paradoxical, but no... If enough people expect a rally then that itself will be the reason.

I think the big bubbles are psychological noise (silly fuzzy human wetware) on top of the systems "real" growth.

yeah, but if you were to expect a rally, then you'd also need a reason for it to actually make a rally.

so no, i don't expect a rally.. but that of course would not surprise me since it's bitcoin after all.

More precisely, I think we are positioning for around 90 days, at the moment. Things will probably be underway in 56 days, but fireworks will be in reserve.

Still looks like a short squeeze from here. A $20 move and not much follow-through. Could be wrong, but until we break $520-530 and keep seeing panic buying, I don't see a big rally ($600-700+)...

I'm expecting a huge rally in these days, followed by a quick drop in value.

The rally is starting today, we have just seen its beginning some hours ago.

I can't see how. Everyday we're going lower. But of course, in 1-2 years price will almost certainly be higher than today.

In 60 days I don't now, it could be like gambling.
But in a year there will be a rally for sure

Huge rally coming soon.......

People have been expecting a rally ever since the China-crash. Remember how people were saying that we would be hitting 1000+ this summer?
Now we expect something in 2 months. And in two months we will expect something by christmas. Never ending delusional claims.

Big rally is expected given wild fluctuation nature in bitcoin price.

We could drop to 350 one day and then rally back to 600 another.

@dropt is correct!

Correlation between difficulty and price is a two way street.

If electricity costs are close to fiat profits then the miner (who has spare cash) will continue to mine and hold coin waiting (hoping) for a better price.

This goes especially for miners who heat their house over the winter and try and sell their coin at a macro top in the future. This scenario is less irrational as the miner will be paying some fiat into heating regardless of whether he employs miners or not.

Witholding newly mined coin from market will reduce supply and thus coin price will increase.