Mt Gox has always had the lions share of the BTC market volume (which is why it is almost always used as the metric when discussing price/volume).
Since I was talking about historical volume, its the only chart that is relevant to the discussion.
Topic: [Poll] How long until $1000 per 1 Bitcoin? - page 3. (Read 8024 times)
Look at the volume, with the exception of the bottom of the original bubble, its never really reached the level it had at the peak of the bubble...in fact, it looks downright anemic compared to how it was...how many times can that happen before it drops to almost nothing (meaning no users trading)?
you know that is only MtGox' volume, right? at the times of the bubble, MtGox was in fact the only exchange to trade BTC. by now there are more and more alternatives and the overall volume starts to spread more and more over different exchanges, which is, IMO, very healthy for bitcoin.
There are many investment instruments, the only reason people buying it is because the price is rising fast and steady. (From mathematical and statistical point of view, a projection of future price appreciationg can be made). Given limited and shrinking supply of BTC, once the exchange become less a problem, the price development will accelerate by itself
usability: people use excel just fine and many are even able to setup an ebay auction. I don't think using blockchain.info wallet or android bitcoin wallets is very hard. I agree usability can and will be increased, but that's definitely not what can make bitcoin fail.
Usability can definitely make bitcoin fail, because it creates a high barrier of entry that the average person isnt going to bother with. Hell, it took me three months after I discovered bitcoin to actually buy some, just because of the hassle it took to get money on the exchanges... and this was before the mtgox hack...now you need to show passports and other ID and wait even longer for money to enter/leave your account (which is why i havent added anymore to the system beyond my initial deposit.
Add in the complexity of the system (which isnt that hard to figure out, but does take a good deal of research to use), the fact that most people are not very computer literate (beyond basics like email, miscrosoft office, etc), and a block chain that's bloated to a few gigs (and gets worse everyday) and takes forever to download, and you end up with a giant hassle that most people wont bother with.
Can these problems be solved? Some of them, yes. Can they all be fixed before BTC becomes a distant memory? I doubt it
scammers will run bitcoin to the ground: If that was likely, it would already have happened. Look at all the shit that has gone down, yet the community is growing... and learning. It's a social problem. With a non-chargebackable currency, you have to do business slightly differently and the technologies do support this (wot and stuff) are currently being evolved.
The very nature of a psuedo-anonymous currency (because its not truly anonymous, and traffic analysis can reveal a LOT) makes it prone to scamming. I've seen people run off from this forum with a few hundred thousand dollars, and guess what? There isn't a single bit of recourse. If someone runs off with my cash, at least I can get police/legal help. The cops arent going to investigate someone taking your imaginary internet money.
In my opinion, it is naive to think that rampant scamming doesnt affect the userbase. When just about every article on btc is about a crash or a hack or a scam, people are going to be weary of using it (and even more so when they see the barrier to entry). Hell, I wont use any other exchange but MT gox because it seems like every other month a new one goes down (and takes its users money and runs) and I only half trust mygox not to steal my cash (another reason I wont put more money in the system).
You can keep a influx of new rubes going for a little while (particularly with raising BTC prices), but that wont last forever. People will get sick of jamming thier dicks into beehives and losing all their money (and have, I dont see half the users I remember when I joined the forum, the lack of old timers should be concerning).
Look at the volume, with the exception of the bottom of the original bubble, its never really reached the level it had at the peak of the bubble...in fact, it looks downright anemic compared to how it was...how many times can that happen before it drops to almost nothing (meaning no users trading)?
I call BS, you just want cheap coins again.
Thats cute, but I measure my profits in USD, not BTC. The price of BTC is meaningless to me, all I care about is whether or not the days movement beats the spread/fees and whether or not there is a clear trend. If the answer is no, I stay in dollars (in fact, I stay in USD most of the time, unless I see a clear opportunity to make a profit so Im not exposed if/when there is a crash)
Right now, we have an internet "currency" that is difficult (or at least cumbersome) for the average person to figure out. It is hard to move money in and out of exchanges, and history tells us using the exchanges is risky, since many of them have closed up and ran off with peoples money. OTC trades are even more risky.
Once you have your BTC, you have to take ridiculous measures to ensure your wallet isn't somehow hacked. You can skip this step, but doing that has cost people on this forum a metric shit-ton of money..
Once you take these security measures, you can finally spend your BTC, if you so chose....but wait! what are you going to buy? The btc market mostly consist of virtual items, black/grey market items, and trinkets...and if you are lucky, the seller will value his "rep" more than your money, and actually sends you the item (or doesn't scam you with a fake item) because there is no way to chargeback.... you could go with escrow, but thats another extra step that shouldn't be needed just to by a bitcoin keychain or whatever.
Add in a poisonous community that scams each other at every given turn (just look at all the ponzis and other scams), and you can see why I dont think this will go anywhere.
I think its cumbersome nature and main userbase aren't going to be changed anytime soon, and certainly not before scammers run this shit into the ground.
Once you have your BTC, you have to take ridiculous measures to ensure your wallet isn't somehow hacked. You can skip this step, but doing that has cost people on this forum a metric shit-ton of money..
Once you take these security measures, you can finally spend your BTC, if you so chose....but wait! what are you going to buy? The btc market mostly consist of virtual items, black/grey market items, and trinkets...and if you are lucky, the seller will value his "rep" more than your money, and actually sends you the item (or doesn't scam you with a fake item) because there is no way to chargeback.... you could go with escrow, but thats another extra step that shouldn't be needed just to by a bitcoin keychain or whatever.
Add in a poisonous community that scams each other at every given turn (just look at all the ponzis and other scams), and you can see why I dont think this will go anywhere.
I think its cumbersome nature and main userbase aren't going to be changed anytime soon, and certainly not before scammers run this shit into the ground.
In every marketplace people ar scamming or getting scammed this is totally not related to btc but to people itself... also i think that globalisation as it takes place the last 10years thru the internet will grow en needs an currency by itself .. Only paypal with there scams are reachebel for the mass becourse of its easy to use.. My 10 year old already shows me how to use an ipad properly so his generation will easily figure out bitcoin thats why btc or something like btc will be succesfull in the near future.. Not becourse you find it hard to understand it means nobody will adopt it ..
Also if criminels or so is to be the first to use its bennifits why not the mass later when it is proven to work..
Us fbi en cia were catching drugtrafficers from mexico to get there dope ..then they realised they should go to other side of the freeway to catch the return cash dollars the dope was sold for so they specialized in money finding dogs ect. We just wait till the mexicans en colombians find out about btc then what will happen..!!!
I think we will be at 100$ in 2016
sorry for my poor english 
The market eventually and always catches up to fundamentals.
Right now, we have an internet "currency" that is difficult (or at least cumbersome) for the average person to figure out. It is hard to move money in and out of exchanges, and history tells us using the exchanges is risky, since many of them have closed up and ran off with peoples money. OTC trades are even more risky.
Once you have your BTC, you have to take ridiculous measures to ensure your wallet isn't somehow hacked. You can skip this step, but doing that has cost people on this forum a metric shit-ton of money..
Once you take these security measures, you can finally spend your BTC, if you so chose....but wait! what are you going to buy? The btc market mostly consist of virtual items, black/grey market items, and trinkets...and if you are lucky, the seller will value his "rep" more than your money, and actually sends you the item (or doesn't scam you with a fake item) because there is no way to chargeback.... you could go with escrow, but thats another extra step that shouldn't be needed just to by a bitcoin keychain or whatever.
Add in a poisonous community that scams each other at every given turn (just look at all the ponzis and other scams), and you can see why I dont think this will go anywhere.
I think its cumbersome nature and main userbase aren't going to be changed anytime soon, and certainly not before scammers run this shit into the ground.
Once you have your BTC, you have to take ridiculous measures to ensure your wallet isn't somehow hacked. You can skip this step, but doing that has cost people on this forum a metric shit-ton of money..
Once you take these security measures, you can finally spend your BTC, if you so chose....but wait! what are you going to buy? The btc market mostly consist of virtual items, black/grey market items, and trinkets...and if you are lucky, the seller will value his "rep" more than your money, and actually sends you the item (or doesn't scam you with a fake item) because there is no way to chargeback.... you could go with escrow, but thats another extra step that shouldn't be needed just to by a bitcoin keychain or whatever.
Add in a poisonous community that scams each other at every given turn (just look at all the ponzis and other scams), and you can see why I dont think this will go anywhere.
I think its cumbersome nature and main userbase aren't going to be changed anytime soon, and certainly not before scammers run this shit into the ground.
Good reasoning I agree.. but the market has already proven you dead wrong. The Bitcoin 'financial economy' suffered an almost total catastrophic collapse last summer (GLBSE sudden shutdown, Bitcoinica shutdown, pirate ponzi destroying almost the entire main lending and finance infrastructure (almost all the trusted forum lenders were embroiled in the fiasco somehow) and many of the entrepreneurial types leaving the bitcoin economy altogether).
Despite this calamity the price has staged a huge rally in the last 8 months.. sure you can say this is a 'bubble' or temporary due to the wordpress announcement etc etc, just like all the well reasoned and highly educated academics said the DOW couldn't go higher than 2000, 3000, 4000 etc in the 90s. It eventually ran up to 14,000. The market proved them wrong and in the end that is all that matters. The price is the ultimate arbiter.
EDIT: I am not saying the price is going to $1000. I am just pointing out that your theoretical argument has not stood up in the real world.
we need new poll: How long until a Fishful of dollars!!! per 1 Bitcoin?
JK, nice poll
JK, nice poll
here's another poll: How long before 1 BTC = 1 oz of gold
Why count in dollar's form?
Even if FED find out that this thing will become a huge bubble and start to tighten the USD money supply, they cannot stop people from trading in BTC with other currencies. Even if all the central banks in the world start to tighten the money supply, they cannot stop people from trading in BTC with real goods and assets, it is like a blackhole which can suck in anything valueable, if the demand is enough high
Even if FED find out that this thing will become a huge bubble and start to tighten the USD money supply, they cannot stop people from trading in BTC with other currencies. Even if all the central banks in the world start to tighten the money supply, they cannot stop people from trading in BTC with real goods and assets, it is like a blackhole which can suck in anything valueable, if the demand is enough high
Lol...after a year and a half (if not more) of watching an alarming amount of hacks and scams (alongside a community with an insane amount of infighting), I cant see this whole thing taking off outside of a few bubbles here and there.
you can also get scammed if you invest usd.
it is not the bitcoin system that generates those scams, it is scammers. the problem with scams in the bitcoin world is that lots of people (mostly newbies) still think that you can only win with bitcoins, no matter what you do with them. if they would apply the same investing strategy in the "real" (usd) world, they would already be bancrupt.
by example, you would not give your usd to a anonymous guy offering you like 100% return per year. why did people give their btc to pirate then?
think about it.
You said yourself that Bitcoin isn't the problem.
It isn't. I listed the problems already, and don't think they will resolve themselves. Some may be solved eventually, but I think the scammers, hackers, and black market sellers (amongst other things) are going to kill BTC before it ever gets off of the ground.
you main two points are:
- bad usability
- scammers will run bitcoin to the ground
usability: people use excel just fine and many are even able to setup an ebay auction. I don't think using blockchain.info wallet or android bitcoin wallets is very hard. I agree usability can and will be increased, but that's definitely not what can make bitcoin fail.
scammers will run bitcoin to the ground: If that was likely, it would already have happened. Look at all the shit that has gone down, yet the community is growing... and learning. It's a social problem. With a non-chargebackable currency, you have to do business slightly differently and the technologies do support this (wot and stuff) are currently being evolved.
I call BS, you just want cheap coins again.
Hey Evolve, you know how I used email back in 1989? I had to physically connect my telephone receiver to a device called a "modem", then dial up the number of a thing called a BBS. I then had to input a string of commands into my computer that would connect me to the BBS and start up a programme called a "client", through which I was able to "download" my emails. I would then disconnect from the BBS, write my replies, then start the whole process up again and tell my "client" to send the replies. I would do this, on average, once a day... normally in the evenings. And I thought it rocked! But at the time, most of my friends and family around the world thought it was too cumbersome.
Now they email from their iPhones and Blackberries... so again, the only failure here is a failure of the imagination.
Are you still using a dial up modem? No. You use a similar, but different technology.
A similar cryptocurrency may eventually replace bitcoin, but BTC will almost certainly be gone before any pipe dreams of BTC reaching $1000 come true.
No matter it is a dial up modem or optical fiber, all data is still transmitted with IPv4 standard of 1980s. Bitcoin is a communication protocol, it could be re-implemented in any new hardware and software in the future.
He probably didn't use TCP/IP, though. From the sound of it he used https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FidoNet mail. I'm not sure, though.
Lol...after a year and a half (if not more) of watching an alarming amount of hacks and scams (alongside a community with an insane amount of infighting), I cant see this whole thing taking off outside of a few bubbles here and there.
use your imagination!
Never.
This experiment will die long before that ever happens.
This experiment will die long before that ever happens.
which one? USD or Bitcoin?
BTW, I do still have a modem. The only other option is satellite, and I do use that when it is working although the modem is actually preferable for ssh sessions (barely...Viasat isn't bad these days in terms of latency.) At my office in town I have cable thankfully.
From his usage I assumed he meant this type of modem: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acoustic_coupler
In '89 that would probably be the case I suppose. My first modem was 300 baud, but was not acoustic. It was out-of-date and I got it for next to nothing, but quickly updated to a blazing fast 2400 baud unit. Acoustic modems could be handy though in end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it scenarios though perhaps.
As I was tapping this out, I just got to wondering if anyone has tried doing genuine acoustic transmissions using old-time big-ass satellite dishes or something of that nature, and if so, what kind of range is possible. At least such a thing would stay off the electromagnetic spectra.
Hey Evolve, you know how I used email back in 1989? I had to physically connect my telephone receiver to a device called a "modem", then dial up the number of a thing called a BBS.
...
I'm very much using the same email protocol, though now it comes in the guise of a gmail account, which gets routed through my cellular network to my iPhone. But yes, ultimately, it's still email.
I suspect that if/when BTC values reach their potential, the people who will be able to capitalize will be familiar with the following form of e-mail addressing:
Quote
hubhost!middlehost!edgehost!user@uucpgateway.somedomain.example.com
BTW, I do still have a modem. The only other option is satellite, and I do use that when it is working although the modem is actually preferable for ssh sessions (barely...Viasat isn't bad these days in terms of latency.) At my office in town I have cable thankfully.
From his usage I assumed he meant this type of modem: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acoustic_coupler
Hey Evolve, you know how I used email back in 1989? I had to physically connect my telephone receiver to a device called a "modem", then dial up the number of a thing called a BBS.
...
I'm very much using the same email protocol, though now it comes in the guise of a gmail account, which gets routed through my cellular network to my iPhone. But yes, ultimately, it's still email.
I suspect that if/when BTC values reach their potential, the people who will be able to capitalize will be familiar with the following form of e-mail addressing:
Quote
hubhost!middlehost!edgehost!user@uucpgateway.somedomain.example.com
BTW, I do still have a modem. The only other option is satellite, and I do use that when it is working although the modem is actually preferable for ssh sessions (barely...Viasat isn't bad these days in terms of latency.) At my office in town I have cable thankfully.
I've always said that if/when Bitcoin finds it legs, it will have almost nothing to do with Bitcoin and almost everything to do with more general global monetary systems breaking down.
To me, the question of this poll is the same thing as asking how long before there is a crisis in confidence in current global monetary regimes which leaves people scrambling for whatever exits exist. I voted 'within a year' because 5 years ago I thought this would happen by 2012 and we are already past that. I actually I probably should have been more conservative and gone with 2-5 since our leaders do seem to have some room to hold things together yet.
Actually, I see $1000/BTC as in the range which could be reached absent other issues. The 'big values' are much larger. I think that $1000/BTC probably is achievable through 'organic' growth in the 2-5 year timeframe but would certainly not bet on it.
Right now, we have an internet "currency" that is difficult (or at least cumbersome) for the average person to figure out. It is hard to move money in and out of exchanges, and history tells us using the exchanges is risky, since many of them have closed up and ran off with peoples money. OTC trades are even more risky.
Once you have your BTC, you have to take ridiculous measures to ensure your wallet isn't somehow hacked. You can skip this step, but doing that has cost people on this forum a metric shit-ton of money..
Once you take these security measures, you can finally spend your BTC, if you so chose....but wait! what are you going to buy? The btc market mostly consist of virtual items, black/grey market items, and trinkets...and if you are lucky, the seller will value his "rep" more than your money, and actually sends you the item (or doesn't scam you with a fake item) because there is no way to chargeback.... you could go with escrow, but thats another extra step that shouldn't be needed just to by a bitcoin keychain or whatever.
Add in a poisonous community that scams each other at every given turn (just look at all the ponzis and other scams), and you can see why I dont think this will go anywhere.
I think its cumbersome nature and main userbase aren't going to be changed anytime soon, and certainly not before scammers run this shit into the ground.
Once you have your BTC, you have to take ridiculous measures to ensure your wallet isn't somehow hacked. You can skip this step, but doing that has cost people on this forum a metric shit-ton of money..
Once you take these security measures, you can finally spend your BTC, if you so chose....but wait! what are you going to buy? The btc market mostly consist of virtual items, black/grey market items, and trinkets...and if you are lucky, the seller will value his "rep" more than your money, and actually sends you the item (or doesn't scam you with a fake item) because there is no way to chargeback.... you could go with escrow, but thats another extra step that shouldn't be needed just to by a bitcoin keychain or whatever.
Add in a poisonous community that scams each other at every given turn (just look at all the ponzis and other scams), and you can see why I dont think this will go anywhere.
I think its cumbersome nature and main userbase aren't going to be changed anytime soon, and certainly not before scammers run this shit into the ground.
Hey Evolve, you know how I used email back in 1989? I had to physically connect my telephone receiver to a device called a "modem", then dial up the number of a thing called a BBS. I then had to input a string of commands into my computer that would connect me to the BBS and start up a programme called a "client", through which I was able to "download" my emails. I would then disconnect from the BBS, write my replies, then start the whole process up again and tell my "client" to send the replies. I would do this, on average, once a day... normally in the evenings. And I thought it rocked! But at the time, most of my friends and family around the world thought it was too cumbersome.
Now they email from their iPhones and Blackberries... so again, the only failure here is a failure of the imagination.
No. The user doesn't care about imaginary software. The failure is usable software that eliminates the complexity. It's coming.
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