Topic: [Poll] How long until $1000 per 1 Bitcoin? - page 4. (Read 8024 times)

I'm being quite reasonable; the problem is that your analogy sucks (and I was trying to show you that without being blunt about it).

You guys can get mad if you want to, but I'm simply being pragmatic.  I still trade BTC (albeit a small amount that I wouldn't miss if it was lost) and I still participate in the community....I just don't hold the lofty (and in my opinion, naive) point of view that BTC will be worth 1000's or that it will ever have usage on a large scale or replace the dollar or any other crazy thing I hear on this forum.

The irony, of course, is that your name is evolve. OK, it's like this... the email protocol is like the Bitcoin protocol. Eudora (google it) is like the Bitcoin client. Gmail is like blockchain.info. The modem, believe it or not, is like the modem. The iPhone is like the iPhone and the Android is like the Android... oh, and a metaphor is like a simile (just love that one).

The underlying protocol remains the same, the technologies built on that protocol have become more user friendly and ridiculously more popular (if Bitcoin in 2020 has grown anywhere near the same extent as email has since the 90's, you'll be talking to my people's people).

But I suspect you are not amenable to reasoned arguments here, so I'll drop it now, because some of us have work to do. Cheers.

It isn't. I listed the problems already, and don't think they will resolve themselves. Some may be solved eventually, but I think the scammers, hackers, and black market sellers (amongst other things) are going to kill BTC before it ever gets off of the ground.

You use a different mode of transferring the information (dial-up modem vs dsl/broadband) and different programs (compuserve or whatever vs gmail) and receive the information on a different type of machine (pc vs pc, laptop, and phones) using the same basic method (email protocol)


So a similar, but more advanced (read: different) version of the technology of what you used before?

Yeah, I said that.

No matter it is a dial up modem or optical fiber, all data is still transmitted with IPv4 standard of 1980s. Bitcoin is a communication protocol, it could be re-implemented in any new hardware and software in the future.

I'm very much using the same email protocol, though now it comes in the guise of a gmail account, which gets routed through my cellular network to my iPhone. But yes, ultimately, it's still email.

Are you still using a dial up modem? No. You use a similar, but different technology.

A similar cryptocurrency may eventually replace bitcoin, but BTC will almost certainly be gone before any pipe dreams of BTC reaching $1000 come true.

Hey Evolve, you know how I used email back in 1989? I had to physically connect my telephone receiver to a device called a "modem", then dial up the number of a thing called a BBS. I then had to input a string of commands into my computer that would connect me to the BBS and start up a programme called a "client", through which I was able to "download" my emails. I would then disconnect from the BBS, write my replies, then start the whole process up again and tell my "client" to send the replies. I would do this, on average, once a day... normally in the evenings. And I thought it rocked! But at the time, most of my friends and family around the world thought it was too cumbersome.

Now they email from their iPhones and Blackberries... so again, the only failure here is a failure of the imagination.

In the realm of online gaming already, an economy is rapidly growing in which the BTM or mBTC is becoming the standard currency unit, and I don't believe your average player is thinking too much about it being worth roughly a penny in dollar terms. This will develop further.

Fiat currencies are full of scams and hacks too, in fact on a much larger scale...

I agree with this whole-heartedly. I dont think the problem lies with BTC in and of itself, nor do I think that cryptocurrecies are inherently doomed to fail.  The math/programming is sound, and definitely well thought out.

The problem is usability, the constant scamming and hacking, and the mentality of tying its value in relation to USD/EUR/whatever.  (in other words, I use USD daily without thinking/worrying about how many pips were lost to the yen or euro)

That said, in a different time and place, something similar BTC could work.  I just dont think BTC will ever hit 1:1000 with the dollar or stand the test of time.

I think this is why we're at around $15 rather than $50.


I think this is changing, but even if it weren't - the advent of 'programmable' cryptographic money still has large upside if dominated by sophisticated users as a technical internet phenomenon rather than 'going mainstream'.

Right now, we have an internet "currency" that is difficult (or at least cumbersome) for the average person to figure out.  It is hard to move money in and out of exchanges, and history tells us using the exchanges is risky, since many of them have closed up and ran off with peoples money. OTC trades are even more risky.

Once you have your BTC, you have to take ridiculous measures to ensure your wallet isn't somehow hacked.  You can skip this step, but doing that has cost people on this forum a metric shit-ton of money..  

Once you take these security measures, you can finally spend your BTC, if you so chose....but wait! what are you going to buy? The btc market mostly consist of virtual items, black/grey market items, and trinkets...and if you are lucky, the seller will value his "rep" more than your money, and actually sends you the item (or doesn't scam you with a fake item) because there is no way to chargeback.... you could go with escrow, but thats another extra step that shouldn't be needed just to by a bitcoin keychain or whatever.

Add in a poisonous community that scams each other at every given turn (just look at all the ponzis and other scams), and you can see why I dont think this will go anywhere.




I think its cumbersome nature and main userbase aren't going to be changed anytime soon, and certainly not before scammers run this shit into the ground.

A year and a half (or even 4 years) is... a drop in the bucket

Lol...after a year and a half (if not more) of watching an alarming amount of hacks and scams (alongside a community with an insane amount of infighting), I cant see this whole thing taking off outside of a few bubbles here and there.

Award for optimistic of the month !!! 

Never.

This experiment will die long before that ever happens.

well, its only 2013 USD for the next year... if you said "in 20 years" then it would be 2033 USD ...

The poll should really clarify whether we are talking about 2013 USD or current USD? If inflation sets in for the US, then bitcoins could still buy the same as they do today and also trade for $1000 each.

By that time, there is no $ to measure against.