$1B: 2012 07 07
1g Au: 2012 06 07
Topic: Poll :: When will Bitcoin reach $1 Billion total value - page 4. (Read 13534 times)
Lending is the ultimate long position, but $1b is insane. Governments would start getting really aggressive at that point.
Insane? It's required! Now you cannot even pay a car with Bitcoin without moving the market.
Summary to date 
1g Au
2012 04 01 miscreanity
2012 05 03 Goat
2012 05 13 Niko
2012 06 12 cloon
2012 08 01 oOoOo
2012 08 03 sadpandatech
2012 08 10 kjlimo
2012 09 03 the joint
2012 12 07 notme
2012 12 21 Mageant
2013 01 03 Koekiemonster
2013 03 23 Scott J
2013 04 13 proudhon
2013 06 10 Clark
2014 01 01 farfiman
2014 03 04 Wekkel
2014 04 01 Revalin
2014 05 03 indeededausername
2014 05 05 BTCurious
2016 09 07 sgbett
2018 06 27 trogdorjw73
never - westkybitcoins
pse to let me know if I've made any typos or missed anyone out, mt
Just a little fix for ya.
I would like to guess 2013-01-07 for both contests.
I also don't think it'll ever reach $1B, but for the hellofit:
I have some difficulty understanding your stance. You seem to think that Bitcoin will lose value until ppl lose interest, leave and delete their wothless wallets to save disk space. While this is a possibility, the believe in it seems inconsistent to spending a lot of time with Bitcoin as you apparently do. Unless you don't value your time either. Don't you consider all the time you invested in Bitcoin a loss? All that knowledge which will be worthless if your hopes come true? Man, you need to get a life.
Lending is the ultimate long position, but $1b is insane. Governments would start getting really aggressive at that point.
.... But there's a 5BTC prize, and "never" can never be paid out, so I'll predict $1b BTC total value on 23rd June, 2014.
.... But there's a 5BTC prize, and "never" can never be paid out, so I'll predict $1b BTC total value on 23rd June, 2014.
I would like to guess 2012-12-07 for both contests.
OK last chance for any more votes or date picking here, I shall close this off tomorrow with a final summary (or an edit of the summary above) of the dates that have been chosen & leave the thread open, but any further dates picked after tomorrow will not be eligible for the prizes ~ good luck 
Summary to date $1B
2012 05 01 miscreanity
2012 05 10 lord bookington
2012 05 16 cloon
2012 06 01 finway
2012 06 27 Goat
2012 07 04 kjlimo
2012 07 07 foggyb
2012 10 02 niko
2012 10 30 sadpandatech
2012 11 04 the joint
2012 12 01 westkybitcoins
2012 12 07 notme
2013 01 01 farfiman
2013 01 07 chsados
2013 02 13 Mageant
2013 03 23 Scott J
2013 05 05 BTCurious
2013 05 08 kilmyos
2013 05 22 Clark
2013 07 14 Koekiemonster
2013 09 07 sgbett
2013 09 12 istar
2013 12 06 waspoza
2014 01 04 indeededausername
2014 06 23 Kluge
2015 04 01 Revalin
2016 07 08 proudhon
2017 09 11 Wekkel
2017 12 12 trogdorjw73
never - Hawkix
1g Au
2012 04 01 miscreanity
2012 05 03 Goat
2012 05 13 Niko
2012 06 07 foggyb
2012 06 12 cloon
2012 08 01 oOoOo
2012 08 03 sadpandatech
2012 08 10 kjlimo
2012 09 03 the joint
2012 12 07 notme
2012 12 21 Mageant
2013 01 03 Koekiemonster
2013 01 07 chsados
2013 03 23 Scott J
2013 04 13 proudhon
2013 06 10 Clark
2013 12 06 waspoza
2014 01 01 farfiman
2014 03 04 Wekkel
2014 04 01 Revalin
2014 05 03 indeededausername
2014 05 05 BTCurious
2016 09 07 sgbett
2018 06 27 trogdorjw73
never - westkybitcoins
pse to let me know if I've made any typos or missed anyone out, mt
1B 2012 05 10
$1B: 2012-12-01
1au: never - the $ will have been rendered worthless before btc matches an ounce of gold
1au: never - the $ will have been rendered worthless before btc matches an ounce of gold
$1B: 22nd May 2013
1g Au: 10th June 2013
1g Au: 10th June 2013
1Billion: 1st June 2012
Here is another calculation:
From $0.30 to $80 is a 266x increase
2011: $0.30 - $5 was already a 16x increase, that means about 16x more to go
projection:
2012: $5 - $40 with a 8x increase (which would still put us about a month too early with the current price, but that's close enough).
2013: $40 - $80 with a 2x increase
From $0.30 to $80 is a 266x increase
2011: $0.30 - $5 was already a 16x increase, that means about 16x more to go
projection:
2012: $5 - $40 with a 8x increase (which would still put us about a month too early with the current price, but that's close enough).
2013: $40 - $80 with a 2x increase
Here is an interesting calculation.
If we have a $80 target date on 2013.10.28 then we get the following intermediate prices assuming an even exponential rise starting on 2011.01.01 at $0.30:
2012.01.01: $2.17
2012.07.01: $5.87
2013.01.01: $15.80
Surprisingly, the price of $2.17 is very close to the absolute low that was reached in November 2011. So this projection just missed that target price by a few weeks.
So the current price of $6-$7 is either too optimistic or the estimate of $80 on 2013.10.28 is not optimistic enough. Another possibility is though that it will rise more slowly once it reaches higher prices.
If we have a $80 target date on 2013.10.28 then we get the following intermediate prices assuming an even exponential rise starting on 2011.01.01 at $0.30:
2012.01.01: $2.17
2012.07.01: $5.87
2013.01.01: $15.80
Surprisingly, the price of $2.17 is very close to the absolute low that was reached in November 2011. So this projection just missed that target price by a few weeks.
So the current price of $6-$7 is either too optimistic or the estimate of $80 on 2013.10.28 is not optimistic enough. Another possibility is though that it will rise more slowly once it reaches higher prices.
I don't trust vertical asymptotes... Horizontal is where it's at.
Here is an interesting calculation.
If we have a $80 target date on 2013.10.28 then we get the following intermediate prices assuming an even exponential rise starting on 2011.01.01 at $0.30:
2012.01.01: $2.17
2012.07.01: $5.87
2013.01.01: $15.80
Surprisingly, the price of $2.17 is very close to the absolute low that was reached in November 2011. So this projection just missed that target price by a few weeks.
So the current price of $6-$7 is either too optimistic or the estimate of $80 on 2013.10.28 is not optimistic enough. Another possibility is though that it will rise more slowly once it reaches higher prices.
If we have a $80 target date on 2013.10.28 then we get the following intermediate prices assuming an even exponential rise starting on 2011.01.01 at $0.30:
2012.01.01: $2.17
2012.07.01: $5.87
2013.01.01: $15.80
Surprisingly, the price of $2.17 is very close to the absolute low that was reached in November 2011. So this projection just missed that target price by a few weeks.
So the current price of $6-$7 is either too optimistic or the estimate of $80 on 2013.10.28 is not optimistic enough. Another possibility is though that it will rise more slowly once it reaches higher prices.
& that'd make the prize total up to $2,000 or $4,000 if Zhou were to play & pick both winning dates, yikes! *quickly buys 50 more BTC @ < $7*
If that prediction (2013.10.28) were to come true then we are way ahead of schedule with a current price of $7.
& that'd make the prize total up to $2,000 or $4,000 if Zhou were to play & pick both winning dates, yikes! *quickly buys 50 more BTC @ < $7*
Summary to date $1B
2012 05 01 miscreanity
2012 05 16 cloon
2012 06 27 Goat
2012 07 04 kjlimo
2012 10 02 niko
2012 10 30 sadpandatech
2012 11 04 the joint
2013 01 01 farfiman
2013.02.13 Mageant
2013 03 23 Scott J
2013 05 05 BTCurious
2013 05 08 kilmyos
2013 07 14 Koekiemonster
2013 09 07 sgbett
2013 09 12 istar
2014 01 04 indeededausername
2015 04 01 Revalin $1B
2016 07 08 proudhon
2017 09 11 Wekkel
2017 12 12 trogdorjw73
Note: the average date for the $1B mark is 2013.10.28
That means the price will be about $80 then.
- Gold/BTC parity/$s - 1st Aug. 2012
- Market cap $B - 30th Oct. 2012
My price -> 158es1Pbb7FLhuzVHVSRDT5bq4KWJ8oyf1
Greets,
oOo
30 Oct 2012 Market Cap $B has already been bagged by sadpandatech, pse choose another date for this - see summary on previous page updated
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