Topic: Poll :: When will Bitcoin reach $1 Billion total value - page 5. (Read 13533 times)

• Gold/BTC parity/$s - 1st Aug. 2012
• Market cap $B - 30th Oct. 2012

My price -> 158es1Pbb7FLhuzVHVSRDT5bq4KWJ8oyf1

Greets,
oOo

Great analysis!

Assuming it'll take until 2033 to reach a maximum might be stretching it a bit when taking into account the amplifying effect of progress in general. Normal transitions from one paradigm to another are one thing. I think existing circumstances have the potential to push a somewhat more rapid shift. Facebook's growth exhibits a very similar pattern.

Bitcoin may propagate most rapidly through System D. That could hit within the 2-3 year mark as you suggest, and at an estimated $10 trillion it would boost Bitcoin several orders of magnitude in value.

Of course, System D also makes heavy use of Hawala-style networks, so alternate systems such as Ripple will compete (although more in a complementary fashion rather than adversarial). In that sense, Bitcoin could still become a reserve or focal point, with Hawala/Ripple replacing what we currently view as the bank credit system and only engaging in Bitcoin transactions when it is difficult or impractical to engage in transactions otherwise (e.g. a large volume or distance for a small number of transfers).

Juggling with numbers can lead to more interesting thoughts.

We know that in 2033, no additional BTC will be available. Let's assume that it will take up to 2033 to spread BTC:
*to the entire population of 6 billion people; or
*in exchange of the global total money supply of USD 60 trillion

To make our life simple, we assume that the annual factor and the base number (people, money supply) remain constant.

The graphs are inserted below.


people


money supply

The factor [people] is 3,6 (remarkable close to phi), the factor [money supply] is 7,8. Of course, if the total time frame is less than 2009 to 2033, the factor to be used would have to be higher to meet the target.

An interesting aspect is the nature of these graphs, or better to say, the math behind it. The graphs are build up by assuming a constant factor that increases the total number, but halfway, the same factor is used to decrease the increase (=still growth, but less and less annually until it is a flat line). This is based on the assumption that, at first, there will be a low number of participants/money invested in BTC. Moving on, the numbers explode after which the increase will slow down again.

Since it follows from the formula, it is no surprise that the biggest increase is made around 2019-2020. It is clear that if you compress the total time frame to, let's say, 2022, the biggest increase would be round and about 2016. That's not the interesting part.

The interesting part (as far as I am concerned) is that, on the basis of these premises, the number will be approximately 10% of the total number to be reached just when the increase is at its maximum velocity. Above, I already presented the link to a study showing that, for an idea to be accepted, a critical mass of 10% (or 13%) of all people should accept the idea. If the critical mass is reached, the rest will follow as a rule.


spread of new idea

The curve used in that study aligns with the formula used in my numbers-juggling-exercise. First the slow start, then the increase, then the top and the following decrease.

To end this pick-your-number-and-base-your-argument-on-that-number exercise, it seems fair to assume that the actual factor of the BTC spread (in terms of people or committed cash) is way higher than the numbers in my projection. At least, in this stage. It remains to be seen whether the actual factor remains very high over the course of the next years.

Someone else may calculate the actual average factor to project the predicted date on which the critical mass of 10% will be reached. It could be a lot sooner than we think, prone to error as we humans are in understanding the exponential factor.

However, another thing to ponder is the known history of inventions, dating back to the 19th century. Usually, an invention lingers for about 10-15 years, before it suddenly gets adopted massively. Nowadays we see shorter time frames (Facebook, Youtube etc), but I think it is reasonable to assume that Bitcoin will stay in the dark for at least two more years before taking off.

Buyin' time  

whoa, I'm actually a relative bear compared to everyone else

^ summary above up dated, I would be fasinated to see Zhou Tong's estimates for this, hey if you're watching Zhou I'll double the prizes if you win for your favourite good cause

The crisis of the fiat currencies will mean that more gold will be in demand.

But people also need to know that there is at least 10x more gold on the planet in hidden caches than officially acknowledged:
http://divinecosmos.com/start-here/davids-blog/1022-lawsuit-end-tyranny-ii
http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/sociopolitica/secretgoldtreaty/contents.htm

2013.02.13 - $1B

Ha! First for both. QE3 better not disappoint.

Thanks to kilmyos and ineededausername for picking dates extremely close to me

  Summary to date

$1B

2012 05 01 miscreanity
2012 05 10 lord bookington
2012 05 16 cloon
2012 06 01 finway
2012 06 27 Goat
2012 07 04 kjlimo
2012 10 02 niko
2012 10 30 sadpandatech
2012 11 04 the joint
2012 12 01 westkybitcoins

2013 01 01 farfiman
2013 02 13 Mageant
2013 03 23 Scott J
2013 05 05 BTCurious
2013 05 08 kilmyos
2013 05 22 Clark
2013 07 14 Koekiemonster
2013 09 07 sgbett
2013 09 12 istar

2014 01 04 indeededausername

2015 04 01 Revalin

2016 07 08 proudhon

2017 09 11 Wekkel
2017 12 12 trogdorjw73

never - Hawkix

1g Au

2012 04 01 miscreanity
2012 05 03 Goat
2012 05 13 Niko
2012 06 12 cloon
2012 08 01 oOoOo
2012 08 03 sadpandatech
2012 08 10 kjlimo
2012 09 03 the joint
2012 12 01 westkybitcoins
2012 12 21 Mageant

2013 01 03 Koekiemonster
2013 03 23 Scott J
2013 04 13 proudhon
2013 06 10 Clark

2014 01 01 farfiman
2014 03 04 Wekkel
2014 04 01 Revalin
2014 05 03 indeededausername
2014 05 05 BTCurious

2016 09 07 sgbett

2018 06 27 trogdorjw73

never - westkybitcoins

pse to let me know if I've made any typos or missed anyone out, mt

I did it too, by a year difference, actually. My reasoning goes: If digital gold becomes worth more due to fiat issues, then actual gold will become worth more too.

I'd have to scan back over the thread but I believe you are the only other person besides me who placed the btc = gold date after before the btc = 1B$ date.  May I ask what is your thinking in this?

cheers


edit; duh

sorry , the date is taken....

Not a bad guess, in my opinion.  Someone was thinking of what has happened this holiday season

2012.11.04    ------ $1 Billion   (nov. 4th)

2012.09.03    ------  Gold   (sept. 3rd)

shure it is, but many people will only follow the main stream media and main stream politics and advertising and not have the connectiuon to the virtual "world"
so the replacement of the USD will be used... but Bitcoin will take his part! The rise has just begun!^^

Just how long do you think people will take to learn all paper money goes to shitters then they make a new one which suffers the same fate?

History can only repeat itself for so long until people smart up to mistakes of the past.

Things do change when people are educated of their mistakes and demand a better solution. Bitcoin is merely one example of an educated man trying to make a difference.

My bets:
1B USD: 16 may 2012
Gold:     12 jun  2012

will never happen...
if the USD gets worthless, they will make another currency, one who is controllable, not like Bitcoin...
but IMO many ppl will invest in BTC for hoarding, like gold, and slowly the BTCEconomy will start growing ;-)

This discussion reminds me of the old story, when the scientists from the beginning of 20th century speculated how much place will have London to occupy in recent "future", when everyone would want to have its own horse and hackney and there will be need for plenty of barns and oat fields. Not counting the disposal of horseshit.