Topic: [Poll] Where are we in the Investor's Emotion Cycle? (Read 3284 times)
Either in denial or hope.
Relief!
Sold everything I bought on the downswing into the 130s panic buying last night. In the meantime, sitting high on fiat waiting for the next dip. Might take myself out to lunch
Sold everything I bought on the downswing into the 130s panic buying last night. In the meantime, sitting high on fiat waiting for the next dip. Might take myself out to lunch
Agreed. I am feeling relief coupled with a bit of anxiety as my expendable funds are tied up in a banking transaction right now.
Just posted earlier but no so clear: RELIEF. I'm speaking for me and for me only.
bump 
Poll reset!
Thats what it looked like today before I reset the Poll. It depicts the situation in mids of February 2013.
Lets see what people think now:
POLL RESET!
psql (postgres database client). can give more info when on real computer if you like. phone now
i would appreciate it a lot
Due to popular demand and also maybe to lure some beginners into the world of sql:
[BEGINNER WORKSHOP]: bitcoincharts + postgres = cool sql queries
You might want to add raging chainsaw mania to the list.
psql (postgres database client). can give more info when on real computer if you like. phone now
i would appreciate it a lot
We are waiting for the $32' ers to sell at a loss before we move up. This is also completely consistent with my opinion on my hunch.
shouldn't take long:
Code:
mtgox=# select count(*) as cnt, sum(volume) as btc, sum(volume*price) as usd from trades where price >= 31.0;
-[ RECORD 1 ]----------------
cnt | 1544
btc | 13714.94400000
usd | 429606.3764527000000000
only 13K BTC were ever traded above $31.
EDIT for those interested:
Code:
mtgox=# select count(*) as cnt, sum(volume) as btc, sum(volume*price) as usd from trades where price >= 29.80;
-[ RECORD 1 ]-----------------
cnt | 5090
btc | 55666.28300000
usd | 1702948.0715991000000000
56K BTC have changed hands for a price above $29.80 (on mtGox).
A bit off-topic, could you tell me the name of the shell you are using? Thanks.
psql (postgres database client). can give more info when on real computer if you like. phone now
If nobody turns up offering a MtGox/BitStamp/BTC-E database, I think we should build one. Would anyone like to contribute?
It wouldn't help with data before we start capturing, but it could be useful in the future...
It wouldn't help with data before we start capturing, but it could be useful in the future...
We are waiting for the $32' ers to sell at a loss before we move up. This is also completely consistent with my opinion on my hunch.
shouldn't take long:
Code:
mtgox=# select count(*) as cnt, sum(volume) as btc, sum(volume*price) as usd from trades where price >= 31.0;
-[ RECORD 1 ]----------------
cnt | 1544
btc | 13714.94400000
usd | 429606.3764527000000000
only 13K BTC were ever traded above $31.
EDIT for those interested:
Code:
mtgox=# select count(*) as cnt, sum(volume) as btc, sum(volume*price) as usd from trades where price >= 29.80;
-[ RECORD 1 ]-----------------
cnt | 5090
btc | 55666.28300000
usd | 1702948.0715991000000000
56K BTC have changed hands for a price above $29.80 (on mtGox).
A bit off-topic, could you tell me the name of the shell you are using? Thanks.
looks like SQL using a database containing all trades ever executed on mtgox. but i would also be interested in where to get such a database
Yup, I think the same.
We are waiting for the $32' ers to sell at a loss before we move up. This is also completely consistent with my opinion on my hunch.
shouldn't take long:
Code:
mtgox=# select count(*) as cnt, sum(volume) as btc, sum(volume*price) as usd from trades where price >= 31.0;
-[ RECORD 1 ]----------------
cnt | 1544
btc | 13714.94400000
usd | 429606.3764527000000000
only 13K BTC were ever traded above $31.
EDIT for those interested:
Code:
mtgox=# select count(*) as cnt, sum(volume) as btc, sum(volume*price) as usd from trades where price >= 29.80;
-[ RECORD 1 ]-----------------
cnt | 5090
btc | 55666.28300000
usd | 1702948.0715991000000000
56K BTC have changed hands for a price above $29.80 (on mtGox).
A bit off-topic, could you tell me the name of the shell you are using? Thanks.
looks like SQL using a database containing all trades ever executed on mtgox. but i would also be interested in where to get such a database
My heart tells me to hold, maybe even buy - there is no particular theoretical limit to the value of the Bitcoin - it might just keep going up. And up. And up. Euphoric.
By brain tells me that nothing goes up forever. The real world just doesn't do that. The wall at 30 fell, so some more upside is likely before any correction. Optimistic.
My gut tells me that I should unload a few coins just before the next correction and wants my brain to figure out when that correction will come. Excited.
My wife tells me to stop worrying about it and simply hold my coins long term (which is what she is doing with her coins) Sensible.
By brain tells me that nothing goes up forever. The real world just doesn't do that. The wall at 30 fell, so some more upside is likely before any correction. Optimistic.
My gut tells me that I should unload a few coins just before the next correction and wants my brain to figure out when that correction will come. Excited.
My wife tells me to stop worrying about it and simply hold my coins long term (which is what she is doing with her coins) Sensible.
So if someone of the old guys suddently want's to buy a lear jet, wouldn't he ask if there were some peers willing to absorb his sell to protect Bitcoin? AKA a benign dark pool?
Basically you are asking if there are any deals done without going to the market? Then the answer is yes, definitely. If you want to buy 1 million worth of bitcoins you don't transfer that to mtgox - I don't think they would even allow you to - you would talk to trusted people and they find you a seller. There's no conspiracy, it is the way things are in unregulated markets.
We are waiting for the $32' ers to sell at a loss before we move up. This is also completely consistent with my opinion on my hunch.
shouldn't take long:
Code:
mtgox=# select count(*) as cnt, sum(volume) as btc, sum(volume*price) as usd from trades where price >= 31.0;
-[ RECORD 1 ]----------------
cnt | 1544
btc | 13714.94400000
usd | 429606.3764527000000000
only 13K BTC were ever traded above $31.
EDIT for those interested:
Code:
mtgox=# select count(*) as cnt, sum(volume) as btc, sum(volume*price) as usd from trades where price >= 29.80;
-[ RECORD 1 ]-----------------
cnt | 5090
btc | 55666.28300000
usd | 1702948.0715991000000000
56K BTC have changed hands for a price above $29.80 (on mtGox).
A bit off-topic, could you tell me the name of the shell you are using? Thanks.
I just don't think the market is sustainable right now. The difference between a few weeks ago and now (for me anyways) is that I am completely out of the market now (I was daytrading/swingtrading up until the mini crash/recovery last week). The fact that we have moved this high this quickly coupled with the unrelenting optimism scares me, and I really believe the price could tank at any given moment...which is why I am staying in USD until I see something in the market that changes my mind.
That's fair.I think a correction is coming. We've climbed very far very fast, with very little serious testing of our gains, and the only corresponding news seems to have been Reddit's adoption of Bitcoin as a fiat payment processor, and that one Bloomberg Chart of the Day article back in late January. But I have trouble getting a sense of when - there's a part of me that has become convinced we'll break the 2011 highs before the wind changes, but there's another part of me that doubts we'll even break $30.
Guess all I can do is wait and see, and trust my system to ride the waves with some measure of efficiency.
i will be marked a hopeless delusional bull, but i think we'll go to 50 or even 75 before a sizeable correction and serious test of support happens.
I just don't think the market is sustainable right now. The difference between a few weeks ago and now (for me anyways) is that I am completely out of the market now (I was daytrading/swingtrading up until the mini crash/recovery last week). The fact that we have moved this high this quickly coupled with the unrelenting optimism scares me, and I really believe the price could tank at any given moment...which is why I am staying in USD until I see something in the market that changes my mind.
That's fair.I think a correction is coming. We've climbed very far very fast, with very little serious testing of our gains, and the only corresponding news seems to have been Reddit's adoption of Bitcoin as a fiat payment processor, and that one Bloomberg Chart of the Day article back in late January. But I have trouble getting a sense of when - there's a part of me that has become convinced we'll break the 2011 highs before the wind changes, but there's another part of me that doubts we'll even break $30.
Guess all I can do is wait and see, and trust my system to ride the waves with some measure of efficiency.
Have you considered that big businesses built around bitcoin are built by people who believe in the idea? Not pure idealists, of course they want to profit from it - but they see the potential, and strongly believed in it way before the herd, invested their time and money in it, built a product which existence depends solely on bitcoins prosperity.
Now, why would those people SELL ALL suddenly to gain some measly dollars? I can only see one reason, if they suddenly become insane. For such occasions, free market is enough to handle the dump, no special agreements needed.
Now, why would those people SELL ALL suddenly to gain some measly dollars? I can only see one reason, if they suddenly become insane. For such occasions, free market is enough to handle the dump, no special agreements needed.
Yes i do, that's why I wrote two whole paragraphs about it in my previous post!!!!!!
qoute:
"These people are Bitcoin idealists also and take a great responsibility in making Bitcoin work and some of them know each other and talk about how the Bitcoin future will be.
So my post was not about some sinister conspiracy, just that early adopters or people with a lot invested proffesionally have a great motivation not to see a second crash."
This is a speculation thread, not a conspiracy thread, so my point in this "$30 resistance topic" we are discussing, is that there are more factors supporting the price level that are not apparent from the order book a factor any good trader should survey!
And specific to you Piramya, you actually agree with my arguments, though you claim you are not. You are right that it would be crazy to "just sell" but it is a factor a business has to consider, you don't know everybody that well.
So if someone of the old guys suddently want's to buy a lear jet, wouldn't he ask if there were some peers willing to absorb his sell to protect Bitcoin? AKA a benign dark pool?
Holding 100-300k Bitcoins make you a bank, if you wan't it or not. Naturally if someone wants to sell a large amount they ask around if anyone are interested in absorbing it.
Come on guys- This is not a "one big manipulater" argumentation on my behalf, it's simply an attempt to measure the not so obvious value of the backing to the current price.
Jump to: