Topic: [Poll] Where are we in the Investor's Emotion Cycle? - page 2. (Read 3280 times)

Based on what i see it tries its hardest to be wall street. Imitation of it bigtime in so many ways.

Have you considered that big businesses built around bitcoin are built by people who believe in the idea? Not pure idealists, of course they want to profit from it - but they see the potential, and strongly believed in it way before the herd, invested their time and money in it, built a product which existence depends solely on bitcoins prosperity.

Now, why would those people SELL ALL suddenly to gain some measly dollars? I can only see one reason, if they suddenly become insane. For such occasions, free market is enough to handle the dump, no special agreements needed.

There are legitimate reasons - if for example they need to dump a significant amount of BTC to purchase, say, a private jet or something similarly stupid which is only sold in fiat world, there are quite a few ways to trade these coins without hitting an exchange, therefore without affecting the price.

The "one big manipulator" theory is akin to "Godwin's Law" for internet arguments, it always shows up in any bitcoin trading discussion.

Move along, nothing to see here...

I understand your argument but why isn't it happning now then? Do every big Bitcoin business have a guy employed with the finger hovering over the button ready to liquidate all BTC assets if the buy side suddently shrinks?

These people are Bitcoin idealists also and take a great responsibility in making Bitcoin work and some of them know each other and talk about how the Bitcoin future will be.

So my post was not about some sinister conspiracy, just that early adopters or people with a lot invested proffesionally have a great motivation not to see a second crash.

You can also consider this in another way: If there is no gentlemens agreement, it would be double risk to keep liquidity in Bitcoin at the same time you are building a business that depends on bitcoin. You would loose both your market and your holdings if there is a large correction. So if an ASIC producer like NZG or BFL have any sense they will raise the capital in Dollars or Huan outside the Bitcoin economy.

That will have the same effect as if they were agreeing on not undercutting each other, as the investors backing them understands the risk of exchange rate fluctuations and must be willing to throw in more $$ if needed maybe even buying Bitcoins directly.

So the Gox exchange rate is pehaps misleading as there must be a hidden backing to Bitcoin that's not visible in the orderbook Both in Dollars or Bitcoin.

I requested some inputs a few days ago on the value of the main BTC businesses. Of course they don't have to tell, but by the time they file they tax returns, they should be able to supply some key figures so we all can get a sense of this larger part of the economy.

There's just one problem with this cartel-like structure you're hypthesizing about: it wouldn't work. Picture the temptation for one of the "members" to break the holy rule and sell below the set price (assuming market dropped below the set price because of some bears selling or something)... it would be huge. Miners need to sell at some point (maybe not so much with asics, investment already made, power cost not such a huge factor yet).

There is something that has never been discussed in a speculation thread:

The large number of businesses dealing with bitcoin, making miners, hard wallets, tablets etc, large pools like deepbit that doesn't make a lot of money on mining anymore have a lot of BTC or are dependent of the price not crashing.

If you have hundreds of thousands or even more $$ invested in some business, you  would try to make an agreement with other players to not let the price drop too far either agreeing on a minimum buy back price or promising not to take out profits dispropotionate to the market cap.

If the current "big Bitcoin business world" were all cut throat, trying to undercut each other on the exchanges, there would be carnage, not a good environment for building an economy.

So there must exist some kind of gentlemens agreement at least, otherwise there would be more sense in a coordinated pump and dump as a business model.

that of course implies that we have a silent Bitcoin elite playing the role of the FED?

The difference between a few weeks ago and now (for me anyways) is about 10-15 terahashes/s, give or take a couple terahashes.  The increase in fiat exchange value has pretty much balanced out my returns.

Oh, I am definitely waiting for a drop.  A long period of stagnation (like we had around $5) might convince me as well.

bahhhh, admadsdhtigfsodigfbit made me used to backwards-ass polls; i ended up voting "anxiety" when I meant to vote "thrill".  Please take this into account when analyzing this particular bullshit.

Hmm, something that will change your mind. And upward move can't be it, that would just reinforce you current evaluation, right? So you're basically waiting for a drop just like anyone here with fiat on their hands.

You are right.

I just don't think the market is sustainable right now.  The difference between a few weeks ago and now (for me anyways) is that I am completely out of the market now (I was daytrading/swingtrading up until the mini crash/recovery last week).  The fact that we have moved this high this quickly coupled with the unrelenting optimism scares me, and I really believe the price could tank at any given moment...which is why I am staying in USD until I see something in the market that changes my mind.

I'm not going to say you're wrong. I'm an idiot at predicting market moves - the only way I survive in trading at all is by strict adherence to a system. But I can't help but think back to three weeks ago, when we were at $20/BTC and you read the market as being "between greed and delusion" on the bubble chart, and wonder whether you might be a little overeager to call the top.

It is, just a stock of one small tech startup with unique, disruptive technology, finance-related, with tiny market cap of just 250 mil USD. You are buying coins and at the same time, shares in that startup.

we pasted Euphoria.. and the price did somthing odd, it kept going UP!

now we have mass Anxiety everyone is convinced they know what will happen next UP or DOWN, and all of them pretend that their prediction alleviates their Anxiety.



the few people still in Euphoria a the ones hitting the buy button 

shouldn't take long:


only 13K BTC were ever traded above $31.

EDIT for those interested:


56K BTC have changed hands for a price above $29.80 (on mtGox).

We are waiting for the $32' ers to sell at a loss before we move up. This is also completely consistent with my opinion on my hunch.

pool results seem to indicate we are still some ways away from bubble mode. this is consistent with my opinion.

Euphoria.

We are going to drive this sucker into the ground.

Why don't we have a pool on when to sell and buy, then we all can agree on entry- and exit points, and daytrade the spread?