[Poll] Will we see single digits again this year?

nimda

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0xFB0D8D1534241423

Quote from: KTE on February 21, 2013, 04:54:42 AM

Quote from: nimda on February 20, 2013, 08:56:19 PM

Sorry to be a pedant but I think it was intended on a more granular scale:

10% we will means it is more probable that we will, not that there is little chance that we will.

Now that's what I call out of the box thinking. The box being logic.

Oh boy, that's good. Mind if I use that sometime? Grin

Quote

If there's a 10% chance of it happening, what do the 90% stand for if it's not for not happening?

To put what I said earlier a different way, I think the poll is structured such that a vote of "10% we will" means there's a 55% chance.

Obviously not the clearest of polls, but oh well.

Piper67

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Quote from: molecular on February 21, 2013, 09:49:02 AM

isn't "x% we will" == "1-x% we will not" ?

Yes, it is, so in fact you can take the top half or the bottom half and double the results Grin

molecular

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isn't "x% we will" == "1-x% we will not" ?

Korbman

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Quote from: TraderTimm on February 20, 2013, 07:37:30 PM

At current rates and the state of the order book on Mt. Gox, it would take ~170,000 BTC to take us down under $10.00 - anyone doing this would net an average price of ~$19.61, which would be a total value of $3,333,700.

Why anyone would want to cash out 3.3 Million is an exercise left up to the reader, but I'd classify this as being pretty remote.

Why dump it all at once? If they sold 1,000 bitcoins a day at $25 they'd pull in $4.25 million...which from my perspective is quite a bit better than a measly $3.33 million Cheesy

(a lot is being assumed in this situation, but still...)

Maybe they're willing to sacrifice a million because they don't want to wait an extra 169 days? ..meh, who knows..

Bemtje

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Merit: 10

Wow, lots of confident Responses.

If someone asked "would we see $30 in february" two months ago, I wonder how the poll would look.

Spekulatius

legendary

Activity: 1022

Merit: 1000

Wow, thanks for your manifold participation! I know because there is 1 vote per user only by default.

As of now 56.1% of you are 80-100% certain we will NOT see single digits again this year! Thats the most lowest end of the scale.
The year still has 313 days to come. Pls help creating the follow up poll here: "Where are we in the Emotion Cycle?"

mr chong

member

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Merit: 10

According to the International Bitcoin Federation the chances of seeing single digits in the next 8-12 months is only 7.9345 percent.

piramida

legendary

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Merit: 1010

Borsche

Quote from: Qoheleth on February 20, 2013, 07:13:58 PM

Edit: I've thought this over and realized I missed an important point: if someone dumped 200KBTC in October, there's nothing stopping them from doing it again.

Yes there is - they already dumped

PS voted 100% we won't, because we won't, not this year.

KTE

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Activity: 69

Merit: 10

Quote from: nimda on February 20, 2013, 08:56:19 PM

Sorry to be a pedant but I think it was intended on a more granular scale:

10% we will means it is more probable that we will, not that there is little chance that we will.

Now that's what I call out of the box thinking. The box being logic.

If there's a 10% chance of it happening, what do the 90% stand for if it's not for not happening?

SlaveInDebt

hero member

Activity: 699

Merit: 500

Your Minion

10% Gox

ciphermonk

newbie

Activity: 50

Merit: 0

Very unlikely. There's only 10M Bitcoins out there and they are getting scarcer by the day. More and more businesses and users are joining the ecosystem. Even a modest drop to 25 or perhaps 20 will trigger buying pressure by many investors. I think the Bitcoin economy has outgrown single digit prices and we're not going back there unless the fundamentals of the system itself are shattered.

Disruptive technologies like Bitcoin tend to have exponential user adoption rates which would translate in a proportional increase in price. You can't have an exponential user adoption rate and expect the price to be stable. That just doesn't add up. I believe we are at the very start of the adoption curve, which will take a few years ( perhaps between 5 and 10 years ) to reach the whole population.

evolve

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daytrader/superhero

90% sure we will.

nimda

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0xFB0D8D1534241423

Quote from: Tirapon on February 20, 2013, 07:50:48 PM

Sorry to be a pedant but half of these answers are pointless...

90% we will = 10% we will not, etc.

Sorry to be a pedant but I think it was intended on a more granular scale:

10% we will means it is more probable that we will, not that there is little chance that we will.

TraderTimm

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Merit: 1121

Quote from: Qoheleth on February 20, 2013, 07:42:22 PM

Quote from: TraderTimm on February 20, 2013, 07:37:30 PM

At current rates and the state of the order book on Mt. Gox, it would take ~170,000 BTC to take us down under $10.00 - anyone doing this would net an average price of ~$19.61, which would be a total value of $3,333,700.

Why anyone would want to cash out 3.3 Million is an exercise left up to the reader, but I'd classify this as being pretty remote.

Someone cashed out a similar number of Bitcoins less than six months ago (incidentally, that's the last time we dipped under $10). No reason to think it can't happen again.

I understand. That is why I said it was improbable, not impossible.

knight22

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--------------->¿?

IMO it is more probable that bitcoin will reach three digits rather dans 1

Tirapon

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Sorry to be a pedant but half of these answers are pointless...

90% we will = 10% we will not, etc.

I'm 50/50.

Qoheleth

legendary

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Merit: 1028

Spurn wild goose chases. Seek that which endures.

Quote from: TraderTimm on February 20, 2013, 07:37:30 PM

At current rates and the state of the order book on Mt. Gox, it would take ~170,000 BTC to take us down under $10.00 - anyone doing this would net an average price of ~$19.61, which would be a total value of $3,333,700.

Why anyone would want to cash out 3.3 Million is an exercise left up to the reader, but I'd classify this as being pretty remote.

Someone cashed out a similar number of Bitcoins less than six months ago (incidentally, that's the last time we dipped under $10). No reason to think it can't happen again.

TraderTimm

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1121

At current rates and the state of the order book on Mt. Gox, it would take ~170,000 BTC to take us down under $10.00 - anyone doing this would net an average price of ~$19.61, which would be a total value of $3,333,700.

Why anyone would want to cash out 3.3 Million is an exercise left up to the reader, but I'd classify this as being pretty remote.

marhjan

full member

Activity: 215

Merit: 105

Poorer than I ought to be

80% yes... and I'll be shocked if we don't see $15 at least within the next few months. Have to love the perma-bull mentality of this forum though ;-)

Qoheleth

legendary

Activity: 960

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Spurn wild goose chases. Seek that which endures.

The last time we were under $10/BTC was October 26-27th. Charts indicate that we only went there because someone dumped 200KBTC - two million dollars in fiat terms - and although the market took a while to fully recover, it bounced back above $10/BTC almost immediately.

The last time we were under $10/BTC for any extended period of time was August. Since then, we've had months of activity around $13, ending with a huge rally to our current price point.

Given those months of semi-stability, it seems to me that it'd take a proper bubble-burst or some incredibly unfavorable news to take us back below $13 in the short to mid term. The latter is totally unpredictable and I can't speculate on it. The former would take us below the "natural" price, but I think heavy buy pressure would start to come online before we cross $10.

Edit: I've thought this over and realized I missed an important point: if someone dumped 200KBTC in October, there's nothing stopping them from doing it again. And the current bid depth isn't enough to keep the price above $10 if they did it all at once.

So there's more risk than I thought there was when I made this post.

Topic: [Poll] Will we see single digits again this year? (Read 1630 times)