If the scammer is very smart and wise, it could be a 30% of chance that they will recover it from a scammer. Yes --bitcoin could be tracked but you don't know who is the owner of the address where it landed. P2P exchanges and bitcoin mixers could be an option for this scammer to hide the scammer's identity. However, there are a lot of tools now that can track transactions but I think it takes too long before this case will close.
No matter how smart the scammers are, they will eventually get caught.
The final landing place to know the owner really needs time and the address will continue to be monitored. cases like this also depend on how many transactions were made or the amount of money the scammer managed to cheat.
The more there are, the more focused on finding the main perpetrators, as in the case of hacking carried out by several hackers who moved millions of dollars from their wallets which will continue to be monitored by the FBI.
About Options, P2P mixers are also targeted for tracking as authorities will target these platforms to provide the required data that leads to suspicious users. The government and law enforcement agencies have full authority regarding the disclosure of cases like this if necessary.
But if it's only a small transaction, maybe the case will just disappear.
Unfortunately there are still few ponzi schemes around. It appears not everyone has gain the know of understanding ponzi and avoiding them. Few people still fall victim in ponzi scheme which is not likely at this very time.
-snip-
Ponzi schemes target those who still don't understand what a Ponzi really is. Those who are trapped are also promised various benefits without knowing what a Ponzi scheme really is. Currently, Ponzi schemes use crypto as camouflage to run their business, so crypto becomes a good place for them and it seems as if they are building a crypto project that promises a lot of profit. even though the scheme used is a Ponzi. I found a lot of Ponzi scheme projects in crypto and in the end, it hurt a lot of people.