Topic: Possible Patterns of Recovery (Read 656 times)

This season many people really lose so many profit for this pandemic which many have never yet recover from their loss during the pandemic. US covid-19 cases is reducing gradually because the government is trying their possible power to make sure the virus is gone from the country.
Us presidential election campaign is still on going which no one has contacted covid-19 because they are always maintaining the social distances and washing of hands.

Recovery is for the big business and government but not for the people and that is the biggest problem.
If the Chinese people are still starving and trying to barely survive instead of living, could we call that recovery?

If a company makes a billion dollars in profit a month yet the worker needs food stamps from the government could we even call that a recovery?

The world doesn't understand what the real recovery is, they see numbers and stocks and whenever rich people get richer they think everything is fine, look at USA right now one of the most elite countries (maybe the most) in the world and they say stock market is getting better and people are finding jobs again, yet you look at unemployment rate and homelessness level and it is record high, that is not a recovery at all if people want to look at that.

The U shape could certainly be the model for the recovery of the world economy if in the short term the pandemic had a cure or at least the virus reduces its harmful effects.
China is restarting its economy but slowly because it needs other countries to put into operation the distribution channels of its goods.
We agree that the economic recovery is being affected by the pandemic. USA as a country with great economic momentum with more cases of covid19 and the second wave of infections that Europe is experiencing. I still wonder why we are not careful to see the experiences of others to minimize mistakes with the idea of ​​getting out of this crisis quickly.

In my own aspect I can call this Vshape of recovery because if government pump money into the economy, both small scale businesses and large scale plus companies will go back into production that will employ people and the economy will start flourishing again. That means all aspect of the economy and country will come up alive almost at same pace and time.

Its because every one need to adjust and no one can adopt this situation faster like what we think,many people are still unable to return to their jobs, others are able to return but their working hours are limited and that is what affects the money they would have earned and use for financial needs.
The economy can back slowly but in individual person that lost His job its hard.

i like the v shape recovery compare to w recovery and simmillar because v shape recoveries shows that the state of the country are on the positive side for a longer time  . on my country there is a small improvement , cases of viruses are getting lower and marketplaces are slowly opening  .

i can now see many people on the outside  but the rules are still the same , no mask and face shields no entry  but when it comes to financial i can observed that people are still  struglling  . i cant visualize accurately if what are the pattern on the recovery of my country , sorry for that .

I think there are two big factors for the rectory from the pandemic which are going to have huge impacts on consumer and business sentiments. First of all will the news of a successful long term vaccine against corona finally signal an end to the pandemic. If there is a way to mass produce a functional vaccine that is affordable for all countries, even the poorest, than there is hope we have the worst behind us. The second big factor would be another round of government bailout for the companies. If the government would inject more money into the economy it would help everybody.

Update;
China continues it's expansion and looks to be taking the pattern of a V-shaped recovery according to his article - In a world mired in recession, China manages a V-shaped recovery. While other countries are still battling with the spread of the pandemic and the economic effects, China is leading the recovery, according to reports, they recorded a 4.9% increase in economic expansion during the just concluded third quarter of 2020 (July - September) and are on the path to a full recovery.

The article highlighted 2 factors which allowed such a recovery,
• Rapid measures to contain the spread of the virus; there is still a lot of debate around this as some other countries accuse China of allowing the virus spread to other nations while taking safety measures locally, but that is not the focus of this reply. Their lockdown measures proved very effective and allowed activities to return to normal faster and stimulate the economy.

• Strong global demand also proved very effective in China's economic recovery. This would mean that there is a constant demand for most of Chinese products globally as export growth continued in the third quarter.

I expect the global landscape to change over the years as de-globalization continues but for now nations with strong partners for their products would likely bounce back better from the economic crisis.

At times like this that we are into the pandemic, the pattern of economic recovery will be hard to be distinguished among the four possible patterns of recovery for the fact that it is not done yet and we are still facing the effect of pandemic and total recovery is hard to be achievable but I think at times like this the economic status will be more likely to be W shape curve for there is a peak of struggle and a peak of challenge to rise up happening on the economic recovery meaning there is still hardship or difficulty on maintaining the recovery phase of an economy. But to look forward on what pattern of recovery we are all hope to be seen as soon as it is possible to be done are those remaining three shaped pattern of recoveries U, V and L for those presents real deal of having an economic recovery from downside going up which is a good sign of recovery.

The governments of each country are trying to improve their economies by stabilizing potential recovery patterns we have to go back to the state we were in before corona the damaged export business must be brought back. Import business needs to be restored remittance has to be kept right for this industries and factories have to be started in full swing agriculture needs to be revived small and medium industries need to be saved the government is taking various steps for this purpose.

Among those possible patterns of recovery that the OP have provided, I think pattern shape V, U and L are the appropriate graphical representation of stabilization and consistency of recovery phase. Compared to the pattern shape W that have certain ups and downs which means there is still a challenge to keep up on stabilizing the recovery of a certain thing. The three first pattern shapes shows an upward stroke which is a good evening indication of a really recovering phase for they have already worked out certain flaws and incorrectness to be able to achieve such graph representation which is really good. When it comes to W, it is not certainly that bad, it is just that it is being challenged to keep up stabilizing the recovery phase which seems to be problematic but the good thing is still undergoing the up stroke after every down fall.

We don't have any choice but to hope for the better things to happen in our economy.

Those governments are trying their best to achieve that U-shaped curve in a graph which is not that impossible to happen if people cooperates in following those safety protocols. The only thing that we need is to make the spread of the virus slower and reopen businesses that will help the economy grow and collect taxes so that the aid that the government allocated will come back to them.

And that is assuming the technology we have does not advance to the point of making many of those jobs unnecessary during that time frame, we already had a job crisis on the horizon as computers take jobs we thought were impossible to automate but when you add the pandemic to all of this then you have an incentive for businesses to not hire people immediately as not only they are costly but they run the risk of their activities begin stopped if too many get infected on their installations.

This gives them an incentive to only hire the people they actually need and replace the rest of their workers with computers so we will have to see how much this process delays the recovery of all the jobs there were lost.

I think the problem is many fold to be fair. A lot of governments have already a huge massive debt problem and poor economy even before the pandemic, and not they are fearing people on the ground are going to get even angrier. We already read many stories now of people going for Bitcoin and throwing away their country's fiat.

And also people are tired of living in fear when others their neighbors and friends do not care and go out and enjoy. It is all human nature being out here to show us how bad we are at doing things together:(

I think the L-shaped is much more realistic recovery in general because U-shape compared to L-shape it is more faster recovery but let's be honest even 1st world countries are having hard time handling the virus and to add why L-shape is the more possible outcome of recovery is because we can't know if all citizens will follow what the government directs us to do, so it is a process of making people follow the rules given by the government to lessen the transmission and achieve the fastest recovery as possible, the countries that already won against the virus have organized and well disciplined citizens that is why they already won and achieve the U shape or even the V shape recovery so to sum it up we need a organized government and organized citizen to achieve it, it is all about doing their parts, it is the key to defeating the virus.

I guess if the virus is not fixed at all the recovery will not happen but at the same time if we can't recover in economy we can't fix the pandemic neither.

I know that people are not certain about how economy is related to virus but it is not related to virus directly, it is related to health and if you do not have any money you will not be healthy neither, look at USA for example they are a nation that has one of the worst healthcares in the world and they still bankrupt and they die, there are people who die there because they couldn't get a simple insulin medicine which is basically free everywhere else, so that means if your economy sucks like them, you will die.

When people die and economy is in shambles you end up with more people dying from virus as well because they are not careful and just try to focus on surviving and working for it.

Most of us are really dreaming about the V-shaped recovery because we want a faster economic recovery as soon as possible but in reality, it is really hard to achieve that due to some factors that can make it hard to do. The U-shaped recovery is the only thing that we can do right now, not that immediate enough but it can show us some improvements from time to time. We just need to be patient and wait for the government's action towards this economic crisis, if some other countries can do it like New Zealand and Vietnam, we also probably can do it.

Thank you for sharing very important information, it turns out that there are many possible patterns of recovery that can occur.
All I know so far is only U-shaped and V-shaped curved, the rest I just heard about them. It is possible that my country is very
compatible with U-shaped patterns, because indeed most countries use U-shaped patterns. Recovery is very difficult, however,
as long as a vaccine has not been found. Therefore, nowadays it is better for every country to focus on finding a vaccine.
So that the spread of the corona virus can really be stopped and the economy can recover immediately.

Before the pandemic, many countries had experienced an economic downturn due to the trade war between America and China, there were even several countries that had entered a recession path. So when a pandemic storm hit it caused even more severe conditions. What the government can do now is to inform the public about the real conditions and not to give empty hopes so that individual citizens will take wise steps.

Actually, many people still have money but they are afraid to invest, they are afraid to expand and choose to keep silent about their respective safety, besides that the vaccines that are just waiting for distribution permits from WHO also get many questions about the effectiveness which is periodic and the potential for vaccines will actually making the virus even wilder.

Hard truth is , most of the countries were already in a crisis way before the pandemic begin, the underdeveloped and the developing countries now due to this pandemic I do believe we will have a terrible condition there.

Other than that it will depend how well the country faces this situation, for most countries despite them having all the resources , the people are not very well following the rules and regulations. Therefore they have a continuous w shaped curve , which won't improve until and unless the government+people do something about it.

But am more concerned about the developing and the underdeveloped countries.

They might never show an upward growth for a considerable amount of time.