Topic: Possible Patterns of Recovery - page 2. (Read 652 times)

I heard it is difficult to survive from the virus if we are infected, but that will depend on how good the hospital to handle the patient. If the hospital has enough doctors and nurses and a good infrastructure to handle the patient, it will be no problem for them to help them. We can hope that people who infect the virus can survive in hard situations while the vaccine still on the way to be produced.

We are not safe yet from the virus, some countries already facing the second wave at unstoppable rate and in near future lot of countries will go into complete lockdown for the second time which means there will be another crash in the economic system so I guess we will have W shaped recovery.

Maybe the father of your friend have an existing illness and the virus made it worse that's why he became a casualty of this disease. Many country tried and few of them became successful but for countries who are in 3rd world category struggling so much much on this incidents, But I really think we are close to have a vaccine and everything will back to normal and economy will be revive once the research companies will mass produce and released their successful product.

It is very difficult to find possible patterns of recovery it is not possible to cure completely until I agree with the vaccine. Coronavirus is recurring in patients many times when the virus is positive when there is no virus many people are getting frustrated. Only vaccines can cure it no one understands the pattern of the epidemic many countries in the world are trying but no one has succeeded.

I believe that the COVID-19 or the coronavirus patients are not that easy to cure or to recover because I also know one of our family friend's father just recently past away due to COVID-19. But his father was recovered and got home from the hospital, though his father still passed away after a week from the virus. So it might be true that it is not that easy to remove this virus and our economy until there is no 100% vaccine.

There are places that do show wrong numbers as well on the pandemic death. I saw a paper with proof online that some person put his grandpa into ICU because his grandpa had corona and he waited for 3 days for him to recover, on third day morning his grandpas results came back negative and he no longer had corona which made him happy but then they told him his grandpa passed away and on official paper it looks like he died from pneumonia so they basically faked his death as something other than corona.

If the dude didn't proved this with papers and results and dates I wouldn't believe him but it really happened. So, that means pandemic is not going away, it is still here and that means recovery may not be as quick as people imagined it would be, we could still be going down once again.

I believe the state they would, INCREASE taxes, THEN re-organize the national budget, with some bad-actors planning how to get some of the money, WHILE getting all of the credit for "saving the economy".

Predicting something now is hard to expect on especially if we really don't know how the government will react after a vaccine is created. For sure they would re-organize their budget allocation as well as think about where they would focus on and if they have enough money in that area. They would also think about borrowing money which for sure a lot of countries will do, aside from the government we can expect that some companies would still be affected in this recovery and I don't think most small and medium enterprise would be thinking about expansion so it's really hard to predict the exact thing on how our economy will be recovering.

The truth is that I don’t know what will happen next, but I am always positive for my country and maybe the U-shaped curve I guess; I believe that as time goes on things will start getting better and the economy will start riding again.

Although that will also be depending on so many factors which I wouldn’t be able to mention all of them, but the actions the government is taking in making sure that things gets better in this kind of situation we are in is one other thing that will help the economy to start going the positive direction.

I believe that could be applied to price-charts? Bitcoin OGs, and the Bitcoiners who went through the experience of bull markets and market crashes/bear markets since before 2014, which curve-shape is the most recurrent?

It isn't a pandemic, it is more of a casedemic. All the reports are of increased infections, and these seem to be overstated by a massive amount. The real death and ICU admissions are kept pretty quiet, but can be surmised when one considers the numbers of empty hospitals. Fairly obviously the panicdemic (sic) is designed to manage an economic reset, and a massive transfer of wealth. This leads one to believe that the only letter that describes the recovery is "K". Once you accept this, and adjust your life accordingly, then you can get yourself into the upper part of the letter, and stop your slide into the food bank economy.

The pandemic teaches that globalization and interconnection have made the virus spread unstoppable to almost all corners of the world. This phenomenon raises the awareness that national independence and resilience is the key to overcoming a pandemic that may be worse in the future. Each country will try to create its own supply chain system, instead of leveraging it on the American global supply chain. China, Vietnam, Taiwan already felt the bird flu pandemic in 2003, so when they faced the Covid-19 pandemic they were much better prepared.

The Government considered this matter because it created momentum for a reorganization of individual countries on the grounds of national security. A nation is said to be truly sovereign when it is less affected by the maneuvers of other countries. To achieve this sovereignty, a country must have national resilience, be it technological, military, economic, social, food and health. Each country will increase people's purchasing power along with the opening of independent industries. Strong domestic consumption can be a buffer for the national economy, an increase in purchasing power followed by an increase in production will accelerate the economic growth of a country.

This is probable, as the lockdown has lasted a long time, meaning some temporary job losses would have become permanent, due to business shutting down totally and going bankrupt. I would however still expect a much quicker recovery, particularly for larger economies; A reopening would mean lots of new opportunities for start-ups in various fields (I would assume loans would be made easily accessible), new businesses would be set up to replace the ones lost, creating employment.

During the brief reopening at the mid way point of the year, there was a huge rise in employment within the span of a month, with the United States adding about 4.8 million jobs in June, although the numbers started to drop in July (1.76 million) as the health effects of the immature easing of lockdown began to manifest.

Is there a slight possibility that countries would begin to look inwards for resources they need?
A nation which is self-sufficient would be less hit by the effect of a global lockdown should there be another similar pandemic in the future, in preparations for this, governments could make strides to become as self-sufficient as possible using the resources they have. Although If possible, this would only work to an extent, as exports and imports are both integral to an economy.

Seeing such graphical representation of economic recovery after recession brought by the pandemic makes me see and realized that among those graphs, W shape curve would seems to be problematic to be stated as a flow of recovery for the flaws that can be seen after an upline stroke there goes downline which shows that the recovery does not take place on a stabilized manner compared to other flow curve striking upwards to flat line stroke. Those are for observable analysis done by a glance to gain a simple interpretation on how certain recovery takes place.


This is certainly true and agreeable for me. The strike points that a W shape curve will be a prominent representation on how economic statuses of different countries can be shown amid this pandemic for there are still lots of negative effects that this pandemic is continuously giving out which makes the recovery unstable striking up and down. The pattern recovery might be taken to shape curves V, U and L once the pandemic is already done once the vaccine to end this pandemic has been successfully discovered.

Unfortunately bitcoin has always been a W shape one and that always hurt a lot of regular traders, obviously the long term investors do not get that much interested in it because they do not really have anything different in the end, but the regular traders do get affected by it.

For example if you bought at 10k, and you are a long term investor, doesn't matter if it drops to 5k and goes back to 10k because you are already long term and you are back to where you started but if the same happens for a trader there are tons of ways along the way where you can lose money as well (but ways to make profit too). So at the end I believe it is quite important that we should be aware of what we should do when it comes down to W shaped or any shaped, if we are long term we should be fine.

Technically, different parts of countries recover at different speeds e.g. cities, providences and states, which implies a K-shape graph. But to keep things simple I'll mention that most countries are right now are experiencing W-shape recoveries. The pandemic isn't over yet, so any attempt to reboot their economies will have limited success and will fall back to square one if/when people get infected by contact again. After the pandemic is a different story, because it's still too early to forcast when it will end.

Think of it this way. Lots of jobs have been lost during this pandemic, perhaps more than in 2008. If you recover the job levels to normal, you pretty much successfully rebooted the economy. But the difference between this crisis and the one in 2008 is that the 2008 crisis was entirely the fault of bad risk management by house mortgagers, given that they already took a massive debt from homeowners who would eventually default, the risk management was supposed to cover their hides in such an event. But they didn't use risk management and bought (on a loan) at high leverage at their trading markets, lost their trades, and their reserves diasappeared. At this point the banks are insolvent but the outstanding home mortgages gave off the false impression of stability so nobody peeked behind the curtain. The ugly things started happening when these people defaulted on their mortgages.

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It seems as though some bankers think that debt and loans can be used as a form of hard money, although their value is not guarenteed. I'm not going to derail your topic writing about the ramifications of this thinking but suffice it to say, it's a deadly idea.

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Anyway, it also happened that people in position of power at the Federal Reserve (Greenspan in particular) did nothing to force banks to use better risk management, so negligence on their part caused a crisis that could've been avoided.

As for this year's crisis, it is nobody's fault that lead to this economic slump. No central banks were being careless, at least not to a magnitude that would've lead to a disaster like this, and banks and institutions around the world weren't trading as recklessly as 2008 levels. This is a recession that could not have been avoided even with the strictest policies, and ironically which some people predicted to happen for the US by Q3 2020, before Covid-19 appeared in China.

It took 6 years for job levels to reach their original amount after 2008, and that's without having to worry about health procedures. Here, we can't even start the procedure of making more jobs until everyone is vaccinated or develops immunity to covid. And there is a large gargantuan percentage more jobs to recover this time around, and for all countries not just the US.

Assume a vaccine is made after 1 year. Then everyone is treated after another year. With the larger amount of jobs lost, multiply the 6-year recovery figure by 2. My senses say it could be 14 years before every single county makes back their job levels, though their economies will take a much shorter time to bring their foriegn trade levels back to normal, say 3-5 years from now.

I agree, if a recovery is coming then the pattern that I believe will manifest itself will be the ‘L’ one, this is because the pandemic is not over and people are afraid not only of the pandemic but of the economic crisis, there cannot be a recovery when people are distrustful and they are keeping their money under their mattresses in case things gets worse, this means that even if business are open now the economic activity is low.

However there is no telling if a recovery is what follows next, after all a recession can also become a depression and this is an scenario that is not outside of the real of possibility especially with the economy being as weak as it is now.

very interesting information here that i didn't know about.
but i think it is too soon to start discussing the recovery patterns at this point because the crash part is not yet over and with the way this nasty virus has been spreading lately and the fear that it has started mutating i'm afraid the real effects of the economical crash are yet to come.

and i think the recovery in some cases could depend on the type of the crash itself. a gigantic crash might have a W shape recovery while a small one be followed by a U shape recovery.

What impact could it be to the patterns when it comes to trading? I do wanted to know too if traders are following also in this trend for their decision making when doing some trades. i know how hard to do trade but others had step up by using bots and somehow manage to get returns as well (good for them). If this is one of their tool.  in trading then glad to know about this tool. I am a little bit trading myseld too but done it manually and not like as a day trader instead short term trading is the only way I can manage but still made some failed attempts.

I think U shaped delivery would be prominent in developed countries like US and Europe. For India many analysts have predicted a K style recovery graph which isn't really a great thing. And this thing can be easily seen from our markets. While the Market carries it's sentiments along with it yet it's evident that a -20% GDP shrink hasn't been much evident on the Indian stock markets. Moreover many companies have increased their market cap in this Covid times while on the other hand a normal small scale business has been badly hurt. Until Vaccine I doubt that this situation would rectify.