Topic: Posslble trendlines (with charts and lines). Which one will hold? (Read 2637 times)

The sudden complete death of mtgox has accelerated the drop much faster than I expected and it has already basically reached my bottom target, but too early, and there is still room on the blue log trendline for a further drop $340. This leaves me confused and not knowing what to expect. 3 things could happen:

1. There is a further drop to $340, followed by a rise, followed by another drop bouncing off of the intersection area at $400.
2. There is no further drop but there is a brief sideways trading period followed by a second drop and bounce off of $400, this time time at the intersection area.
3. Bottom has already been reached and we have be starting a recovery to back above the green line, where it will trade sidewards for a long time.

in the BTC-world I am very careful with younger and short existing  trendlines.
The market is to dynamic for short "prediction"-trendlines

I agree. The "important" trends (my blue ones) have not been broken and probably wont. It is these other green trends which are younger or of lesser significance which the price attempted to follow but failed.

I don`t belive in their fully operational mode again

Agree with everything you said.  But had to fix one line above for ya.  There's absolutely NO guarantee that Gox will resume withdrawals, they may never.  They could very well just be stalling, and the decision has already been made (aka via their lawyers).  And even if they do it will most likely be severely restricted... meaning only a trickle of coins will come out, so these won't able to be dumped in mass quantities all at once on other exchanges.

Gox ,of course, broke every trendline

nothing of importance is broken yet.
neither the longterm up-trend (red) nor the uptrend since 2013 (blue)

The big problem with the 370s is that it takes too long to get there.  We'll be into the next adoption wave by that time.  Also, when the Gox coins are freed, there will be both dumping and Gox correlation lift in the exchanges.  That seems much more likely to mark the end of the downtrend than any other identifiable future event, and it would be challenging to burn off enough demand to hit the 370s in the 2-3 weeks which mark the reasonable forward bound on that event.

Bitcoin has more users than many national currencies.  The law of statistical mechanics economics which determines the fundamental value of a currency is the ideal gas law Fisher's quantity theory of money, PQ=MV.  Using the blockchain for January I estimated the fundamental value of bitcoin at 640 BTCUSD.  The fundamental value rises on a logistic baseline, composed with the network value, which increases as the square of the number of nodes in the network.  Currently speculation has driven the price below the fundamental value.  After the despair phase has blown off, as a new wave of adopters come in, a new blow-off top will form, against a higher baseline.  The baseline is doubling approximately every 100 days. 

Stocks do not have tangible value.  Bitcoin does not have tangible value.  Stocks are shares in a limited liability corporation, a form of ensemble organization which dates to Norman England but did not come to the fore until enabled by double-entry accounting.  Bitcoin are shares in a distributed autonomous corporation which dates to the 1996 cypherpunk mailing list but did not come to the fore until enabled by the blockchain. 

Until you master the elementary aspects of Bitcoin, any predictive modeling that you do is likely to suffer from serious misconceptions and fail in dramatic ways.  Even after, it does have a way of doing what it has always done, in very surprising ways.

Days?

There is absolutely no volume at all since Bitcoin hit $530.

$530 will be broken through within hours and probably without the need for any overly dramatic dumps.

Bitcoin is not a stock that pays dividends. It is not a commodity that stores value. It is a means of electronic payment that so far, is not in even nearly widespread enough use to justify its price. If it aint going up, then its going down.....and it certainly doesn't look like it is going up right now.

Trend 2 (logarithmic) and Trend 3 (linear) are both broken as of today. This is a HUGE breakdown. Trend 2 is the green line on my newer chart. This same breakdown of the green line occured last year due to problems on mtgox.



Now the journey down to the blue lines (Trend 1) begins, but not without one final fight with the horizontal green line. What are you seeing now the green horizontal support trying to hold up on its own while no longer receiving support from the green log trend. This may last a matter of days (or not) before it breaks down.

you are`nt familiar to TA and what lines say, are you?

I find it always funny that you can draw lines only when you know price already, but future price does not know what lines you were drawing.

ad 1. in the previous  1. Chart I draw the same red trendline at Bitstamp and it is the same trendline at Gox
ad 2. a line is defined as the connection of 2 Points .

anyway,it does`nt matter.the primary ( red) Trendline is the longterm trendline of bitcoin Price movenments

it is not my fault that the Gox Prices evolved differently to the stamp prices.
this is the only reason for only 2 points of contact

2 objections:

1. You're looking at gox.
2. There are only 2 points of contact.

ofcourse it does trace back to the origin of bitcoin trading
as i posted at 14.2.
The red line is the trendline since 2011

It is looking like the lower route ( in my picture above) will be taken. The triangle seems like it will be breaking downwards. The mini rally a couple days ago has died off and price action has been very weak. There is not enough momentum to avoid a 3-day ema cross and this will break it down even if it has not done so already.

This break down of the green trend will be very panicky and scary as the trend was re-established back in November and has not been broken since, supporting many crashes.

Perhaps I need to investigate logarithmic charts further and more importantly, why they are used. At the present time, they just seem a bit arbitrary to me, but then I am still very a much a novice when it comes to TA. Having said that, the more of the basic maxims that I learn, the more astonished I am by some of the calls of self professed Bitcoin 'large fish' on this forum who have been speculating in Bitcoin since the early days and presumably have hundreds of thousands in Bitcoin accumulated wealth. It is true what they say about Bitcoin and massive piles of 'dumb' money. Certainly makes the market a very interesting one.

Most of these clowns are calling for new highs and scolding noobs for not holding in amongst some horrendously bearish technicals. I wonder how the hell have these people held on to their wealth, or perhaps it is more the case that they still have their wealth because the Bitcoin market hasn't ever turned it's full wrath against their blind faith, yet.

Perhaps it is the intersection of the logarthmic trendlines and the horizontal supports which determines when these levels are hit and lead to a final reversal into a bull market?

This could lead you to say that "in one month from now, final support will be found at 380", because that's where the lines intersect.