Topic: Post-ETF effect: Has Bitcoin Bottomed yet? (Read 538 times)

I hope that the predictions you have made can come true. Of course, I am also waiting for the correction; before it changes and disappears, there will be an increase. Of course, this is good news for me, something I am really looking forward to, because there is an opportunity to immediately buy as much as possible before the moment changes, because usually the moment that occurs will soon disappear if it is not used as well as possible.
I totally agree with what you said. It really takes patience for something to happen; everything always takes time to achieve its goal.

I am not saying that it has hit bottom, because for me bitcoin has never hit bottom, it is always presented as opportunities to buy, in this approval of the ETF it is an opportunity that if the price drops more then it is bought, and when it actually does the ETF effect, well yes, bitcoin can go up a lot, I don't know if it can reach an ATH, maybe yes, but since it is about to reach the halving this year, that can become an accumulation and be able to make a great exploit of all.

Can you imagine that exploit would make the price reach around $200k? That would be incredible, that would be a sea of regrets that people didn't buy at this price thinking they were going to lose, that is what we have to face and theoretically things can happen like that, opportunities are how they present themselves once in a lifetime And they have to be prepared, if they let the opportunities pass, it is very difficult for them to have it again in those same conditions. It is very difficult.

Well the numbers for Thursday came out and they were +$400M for inflows. And most likely the flows for Friday will be large because GBTC was only like -$50M and we had a crazy day hitting $48K. So on Monday when all the ETFs update their AUM we will see how many inflows were made that day.

So far its looking like we might break the $40K, especially if we get almost +$500M daily of inflows. I am sure most people panic sold when we went below $40K or they sold during the ETF launch because they knew it was a sell the news event. The next 2 months should be interesting since the halving is coming up.

I'm often surprised when I read from people the remark I boldened in your reply, you mean no one will know what the market is doing? I think you are far behind when it comes to the market speculations, maybe you will have to add some learning to what you know, or else, you will always be neutral about it. Yet, some people know. It is true that what you do not know, you do not know, but I still urge you to learn because it is not that we can't know what we do not know, only that we do not give attention to it. The Bitcoin market is one of the easiest markets I've come across, it only needs your patience and good support and resistance strategy, which if used with the right price action, the accuracy of your predictions will be so high.

For me, this year, the two important levels aside from the upper ones are $40,243 and $43,606, and you can see what the market did around them. The market was so unrested around these levels and once breached significantly with a daily close above them, what happened? The market spiked higher. The last one was this week, I think on Wednesday when the $43,606 was eventually breached upwards and the market closed above it. You can see what has been happening ever since then. And if you are conversant with my speculation, you would have read it all the time even as I mentioned this level as a determining point. The market is highly predictable, and if the halving would help, it is highly possible that the low of around $38,500 witnessed this year will be the bottom for the year. This is even as the needed correction has been effectively weighed. What is now the issue? I can't see any for now.

I agree that the approval of a bitcoin ETF is a wide open space for bitcoin's strong growth path but it is not characteristic of price volatility. After the post-ETF excitement, bitcoin actively retested the resistance levels of 40k, and 38k. it is certainly an optimism in the pre-halving cycle, assuming that the bottom for bitcoin could be 32k-38k then the opportunity ahead is huge. bitcoin has a strong possibility to break the previous ath in 2021, it is optimistic this year before making a new allh breakthrough.

Smart money is always slow. The adoption of ETFs has simply opened the floodgate for this money into the world of cryptocurrencies. It will take some time for this gateway to take effect. Therefore, we may well see the expected effect in March/April. Right now, new entrants are just starting to enter the game, but there aren't many big names yet.

So, let's clear some things up because some of you mix the short-term bottom with a cycle bottom. The cycle bottom is in and it happened in 2022, so don't get fooled by all these fools telling you that bitcoin is going to 10k or something because they are saying it because they hope for another black swan event like the one in 2020 during Covid19. They hope a black swan event will prove them right and they'll gain respect and social media followers, that's all.

The more important question is if the short-term bottom is in, meaning that the post ETF correction is over and we'll keep going higher after the halving. IMO the correction is over and I'm talking it by looking at both technicals and fundamentals.
According to TA we've broken the corrective trend line to the upside by going over 43k on daily charts.
When it comes to fundamentals, the ETFs have bought a lot of btc and so did big players like Microstrategy. There was some pressure from miners and GBTC but both are slowly dropping because both expect the spot price of bitcoin to go up after the halving, so people who couldn't wait another 6 months sold, but the ones who could held.

It's looking good if you ask me. I don't expect an ATH before the halving, but we should get one by the end of the year.

38k was the bottom but i do believe that it wasnt the bottom. Come to think that we dont have that ETF wayback into those previous years and its really that normal that we would really be having those pre-post halving
price movement on which it could neither be a pump or crash which we know that this is something that typical into this unpredictable space. Now that the price is starting to cling up. Then it is really that safe to assume out
that we would really be having those possible dumps before halving hits and after halving too. There's no way that we could really be able to know on whats the bottom.

Effect or not, we should really be wise on taking up decisions specially on whats the price in front of us, whether you would really be holding your position or you would really be
selling out to secure profits and make some buyback when it dips and then leave some moonbag afterwards, its your choice actually.! 

With what we have seen now, the market is already getting more stable than before and the accrued tensions have being relieved with what we are seeing in the recent market performance, we cannot give the conclusion on that short time impact as we experience bear after the approval of bitcoin ETF, the market is self sustainable without much impact from other economic activities than what it experience from within, this is why we see the recent surge on the market as bitcoin emerges on 44k USD value, this doesn't also mean that we may not experience more volatility before the halving, all we could do is to position ourselves more better with our investments.

Helly guys! I can see that Bitcoin is moving as planned judging by my analysis in the OP...Many will be smiling to their banks and wallets now... and I think that the asset has bottomed eventually which was the main context of discussion here. It wasn't easy though and Bitcoin first breached below the first reference price of $40,243 and wanted to move lower with a bearish price action. But since that wasn't the preference of people, especially this time when halving is fast approaching, the coin was able to breach the level upward again and maintain a stay above it for over a week, if not two.

But again, the $43,606 was another issue that it has been trying to breach for about a week now. Thankfully, the level was successfully breached yesterday and with a daily close above the level, and for the fact that the asset still preserved the bullish price action on the weekly chart among others. I can't but believe strongly that we might have bottomed at around $38,500 this year, with the focus fully shifted to the bullish side.

so far there has been no news that could move the price of bitcoin and it seems that investors are currently waiting and seeing what the next condition of the bitcoin market will be, whether it is heading to a good point or not. especially since halving day is approaching, it makes many investors just look at and hold their bitcoins, while making small investments to fill their wallets.

I also found it strange that the ETF approval did not see so much rise in price inline with what many people were expecting. But I will say what we saw within the period of the ETF is a clear case of market manipulation that characterizes the entry of institutional funds into any asset. The Bitcoin price trajectory is looking like one carefully control by strong hands that want price within a certain level for reasons best known to them. Other things being equal, the ETF approval was enough to lead to a massive surge in price, but instead we say massive dump in price. This is not a mere coincidence as I believe they want to keep the price low prior to the halving that is happening in April this year.

Now this type of news makes me wonder what these institutions considered as long-term! Why selling now when they had the opportunity to sell at 60k+? And am also wondering are they selling now to buy much lower or they are selling to exit the market, or they are only selling part of what they hold?
Honestly, when i see big companies like this one selling off their btc it's seem like they suddenly lost faith in the tech and looking to move to something more better perhaps.  

I would say it is doing fine so far, there doesn't seem to be anything that is making it bigger or higher. I get that it is not simple and I get that it will take some time for Bitcoin to peak, but we are doing fine.

The bottom was under 40k and that has already happened, we are already higher right now and I do not expect it to get any worse. It bottomed out and looking like it will do much better soon enough, that has to be one of the most important parts of the situation we have right now, and could very well be the issue that will get it going. I know that it will take a while for it to reach to bigger levels, but at the same time I think it has to be done in a way that would not be all that confusing, so we should keep it going higher.

Yes, you are so correct about this, and it will even help to shift the pricing dominance from exchanged and give it to the market like the traditional way of pricing in the financial market just like we see in FX, Gold and others. But factually, I have my reservations about this ETF of a thing. When it comes to Bitcoin, this is the market like never before, it has been speaking for itself and will continue to speak for itself. Also, Bitcoin is not new to any core investors anymore, it is either they like it or they do not, and these big guys do not hide their feelings in public, it is either they speak for it or speak against it. Again, Bitcoin is no more a child in this business, it was already in the mainstream of the financial market before the ETF, and this is why the so-called whales were not able to manipulate it as before or have that strong influence on it.

Bitcoin is now behaving more manure like many other old assets, thanks to institutional investors. All these happened before ETF, what makes you think that more would happen because of it, even when the big boys and the less privileged already have access to with or without ETF? Not that the ETF will not help, but I was just saying that it is just overrated and the effect can't be felt as people think in my opinion, and neither will the big boys whose ideologies do not align with that of Bitcoin will change their minds because of ETF. So, what is the big deal?

Don't mind me, just needed to elaborate on that!

They ETF could attract new investors, increase market liquidity, and lend greater legitimacy to Bitcoin as an investment asset in the crypto space or market.

Define "majority sellers".

We have a daily Bitcoin trade volume between 10 and 20 billion US dollars (according to Coingecko, today it was 19 billion). Every single trade has obviously a "buyer" and a "seller".
Miners get 144 BTC per day, which are currently (at $40.000) about 36 million USD. This is between 0.1 and 0.3 % of the total selling volume. (I ignore transaction fees, as they aren't relevant if we want to know about the impact of halving).

Of course, what supporters of the "halving scarcity theory" will always say is that a lot of this volume is wash trading or another short-term trading that doesn't really impact in the "scarcity" equation (demand vs supply). But even if 90% was wash trading, altcoin trading and other non-relevant categories, then miners still only account between 1 and 3% of sales. There are many other relevant seller categories, for example payment processors and merchants (which need fiat), hodlers taking profits, mid-term and long-term traders searching for opportunities etc.

I don't say a halving is totally irrelevant. The first halving was very relevant for the price evolution, because it began to drive out "home miners" (above all "laptop/PC miners"), and people had to buy BTC (or invest in expensive mining equipment) if they wanted to get them. The 2016 halving in my eyes also still had a significant impact on scarcity. It drove "supply inflation" down from about 7-8% to 3-4% (per year), which is significant. But since the 2020 halving Bitcoin has less "supply inflation" than major fiat currencies, so any further reduction isn't really that important. In the 2024 halving we'll go down from 1.5-2% to 0.7-1%.

Taking into account these quite low numbers, for me it seems reasonable that other events, such as the ETF approval, technological advancements which boost adoption, or generally "sentiment"-related questions, are much more important than the halving event.

I also don't dispute that on the whole, Bitcoin should become more scarce over time (demand getting up, supply down), due to the rigid emission scheme (if all other parameters on the demand and supply side stay the same*), and that is of course extremely bullish for the long term and explains Bitcoin's steady growth quite well. My problem is the exaggerated importance some people give the halving event itself (above all the "S2F folks").

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*In the very long term, when everybody owns Bitcoin, this may change, but the supply reduction due to key losses etc. should be then enough to compensate for it as the block rewards will be totally negligible.

I think with so many coins set to hit the market when mtgox finally does its distribution, that will have to mark the bottom. I suspect we’ll see obvious signs of capitulation with a volume spike before the price can go up again in a big way. They just have so many coins to distribute, it’ll have to be a major market event.

I'm seeing this correction to likely be the last opportunity to get Bitcoin cheaper, recall what happened back during the 2020 last Bitcoin halving, the “Corona virus market dump”, and that was the last lowest level that the market saw and after which Bitcoin skyrocketed in the price and created a new ATH we have today $69k, so I kind of think this is the point where we are in this market cycle, the lowest level to watch is $31k level of support worst case scenario for BTC, I'm not in panic until Bitcoin begins to take out those levels, and should the price dip down to that point. Sometimes market don't go as fast as we expect, it takes time, patient is the key thing right now.

Let's say that after yesterday's ETF approval with the desire for a big increase it is still too early because it is unlikely to rise significantly in a short time, but it is better now to ignore short-term volatility because it will be overlooked now but in the long run it will still be brighter than looking at it now.

I also although the halving is getting closer but there will be no greater expectations, if it drops after the halving it will not panic because this will become a habit we ignore again and continue to buy bitcoin at low prices.
If we look at the short term we will be disappointed.
If in the long run you have patience you can say we are winners again.