Topic: Post-ETF effect: Has Bitcoin Bottomed yet? - page 2. (Read 527 times)

The fire show may not be over yet, but the truth is I don't really expect a super big rise after the ETF's approval. So far we already know how the market will react after the ETF is approved, however, the long-term prospects for bitcoin investment can still be expected. Ignoring short-term volatility is a good idea right now, even if the market sometimes looks manipulated and filled with panic selling.

I don't really care how the market performs in the short term especially ahead of the halving which is reportedly going to happen next April, but the long term outlook is something I am looking forward to. Especially in terms of building a portfolio, panic selling and high selling pressure can now be utilized optimally, of course because there are discounts that are a shame to miss.

That adds truly, and it is normal, who will be selling their coins eventually if there is FOMO in the market, a situation where the market is extremely bullish? It's practical that investors are not willing to commit more money to the market while a sizable amount is also being liquidated gradually, and not only the Grayscale-related liquidation alone which people are always pointing toward. All is due to the market sentiment. People overhyped the ETF of a thing and made Bitcoin rise hugely, the effect in reality often happens in the reverse when the actual expectation (approval in the case of ETF) is achieved. A situation where the market tends to retrace back its steps a little just like what we are seeing now, but coupled with the prevailing bias/sentiment of the market which is negative. I believe the market will continue to be pressured staying below $40,243 until further notice.

Well, I saw the ETF backfiring on Bitcoin as we see now, people are only too expectant, but it's not always so when the needed reaction has been priced in already. This is the case of Bitcoin in relation to the ETF saga, ETF is not an automatic means to move Bitcoin higher, there must be cash volume to back it up. In this case, did people move in money? So it can't do that bullish miracle. The gist is that people actually moved in the money they should have moved in after the approval before the approval due to FOMO. When it was eventually approved, people were sceptical and FUD dominated the market which afterwards caused the downsizing which was also aggravated and emboldened by the Grayscales' sales.

As for your reference on the chart, I've given the condition already where $40,243 is the immediate reference point. Anything can happen on support and resistance levels be it fake or real which calls for caution before deciding based on the levels. In this case, the market can however move above or below it regardless of the initial rejection or false-breakout it suffered. What is important in this situation is to continue to monitor the level with price action and other strong strategies that can confirm a final stance of rejection or breakout.

Those who have been in crypto space for a while knows this was expected and saw it coming already because there has to be correction phase and fluctuations but these are temporary as you mentioned and I don't see any major set back but there would be fear and panic selling if the Bitcoin dips below $30k which I don't think will happen at one go. As I type this Bitcoin is approaching $41k which is a good recovery and those who had sold in last few days will regret. I think it's time we learn and shouldn't repeat mistake of panic selling as we will see such corrections very often until the bull run.

Based on my technical analysis  looking at the price around $40820 where red arrow is drawn, you can see some rejection around this area  from the wicks & by looking at the left which says bearish pressure is losing momentum and sooner or later the bulls should step into the market which should push price up..

But honestly I didn't see price dropping after the ETF approval as I believed that demand will be there as the buying of Bitcoin would start in readiness for the ETF trades but the opposite happened...but once the dust settles we certainly are going p, better believe that!!

Indeed I think this is having an impact, but only in the sense of accelerating the inevitable correction from the event. I'd otherwise factor this into the ETF selling event though. Personally, I thought it'd take around a month before reaching $40K, with more re-tests of >$44K prior to a sustained correction, somewhat similar to summer 2019 when it took a few weeks before finally breaking down to lower levels.


Also agree that ETFs are certainly bullish for Bitcoin, just not in the immediate term as we've already seen. It usually takes a few months for these new launches to "settle" in price before there is substantial demand, so this is also what I'm anticipating. I think it generally helps reduce the chance of black swan events into the $20K levels, if there is generally higher liquidity in the markets.


I'm not so sure about that. It seems like miners are still the majority sellers of BTC, and this is likely to continue, until it is no longer the case. So halving their supply to sell is certainly bullish, even if an increasing amount of miners revenue is coming from fees, especially when there is a spike in the mempool. I'm actually as bullish, if not more bullish, for this upcoming halving than the previous one personally.

Overall, I'm only really bearish for about 3 months, but a lot can happen in that time-frame. Either price correcting to $30K support (another -20%), or otherwise more of a black swan event to $20K. Already price has corrected -20% within 2 weeks, so I don't see it as unreasonable that price could correct another -20% within a few months leading into the havling.

I agree quite a bit that the current chart patterns mostly look like 49k was a local top and now a falling wave is to be expected. However, on a fundamental level, there are some elements which might lead faster to a substantial recovery.

First, there is quite much evidence that apart from the "sell the news" effect, it is quite likely that at least part of the price reversal was caused by the sales by Grayscale (and other financial actors), which means that there was an unique event being responsible for some of the downtrend, which is not likely to continue for much more. I think 35k is possible, but not too likely.

Second, on a fundamental level the ETF decision is clearly bullish, even if I don't think it is enough to "save the bull market" on its own, but it means that demand should gradually be picking up once the major investment firms take a decision. Of course, there could be some confusion due to the present dip, but if we see the price again more firmly in the 40s there should be more and more convinced new investors - the same thing could happen if Bitcoin falls fast to 35k or lower where many could smell a good entry point.

Third, the outlook for riskier assets like Bitcoin looks at least much more positive than 2022/23 in terms of decreasing inflation and interest rates. There might be some speculation around the exact date of the interest rate cut in the US, and some observers think this might occur later than expected, but on the whole, I think there are few elements really putting into danger the quite positive picture the markets expect for this year.

And as you mentioned the February 2020 candle, I think it's quite clear that the extreme crash which occurred this year was greatly amplificated by Covid, and without that event, probably the $20k would have fallen much earlier in 2020. Probably earlier than that year's halving.

There's also the 2024 halving, of course - while I think on a fundamental level halvings since 2020 are overrated as miners aren't really important on the BTC market anymore, I'm almost sure it still has psychologic effects.

ETF situation will eventually happen, maybe it is not happening right now but it will eventually happen, and until that moment we will keep seeing those news. It could be today, tomorrow, a week from now, a month from now, a year from now, nobody knows when it will get accepted. This is why we keep seeing news.

Moreover, just recently, they tweeted about it and put up a page on their website, and then said they got hacked, that could be true, that could be some moron who works there, OR it could also be just them trying to meddle with the market and make it go up and down so that they could make more profit. This is why it's quite important to keep up with the markets, we could suddenly start to go up if there are any improvements on the ETF topic as well.

More of less agree with your price estimates. For me, $41/42K was very much a "line in the sand" for the bulls, as it's the volume support as well as horizontal support for the past month, so below that I didn't see any support until around $38K (previous consolidation and volume support). Now we are approaching this level, I'd be surprised not to see a bounce back to previous support, in order to test it as new resistance. Price is also approaching oversold levels on Daily chart, so while the flip to bearish is quite clearly bearish, I'd expect a bounce before further downside, especially now a correction has reached -20% with little to no relief rally.

So far, overall, everything since the ETF launch looks like textbook market trading. There was a sell the news event creating the largest bearish wick on Weekly candle since June 2019, followed by an anticipated correction based on that extremely bearish signal. The 50 Day MA failed to act as support, as did the Ichimoku cloud on this time-frame, and now the RSI & CMF have turned bearish, which are very much sink with each other (price strength & buying pressure). This significance being that these were all bullish for the past 3 months, so the 3 month uptrend (since October) is very much over now, that much is clear enough.

Best case scenario will be finding support around 200 Day MA around $35K, but failing that $30K seems very likely, where there is considerable support, in order to retrace back to pre-ETF hype levels. A bounce from around $38K will likely get speculators excited, but I only see selling occuring above $40K as opposed to a continuation of a bull trend to new yearly highs. The damage has very much been done, as it was second week of Jan. Don't even get me started on the Monthly time-frame, there's still around a week to go, but naturally it looks atrocious, only further confirming a price reversal, so far reminds me of Feb 2020 candle.

Just Effect ETFs only. Maybe in this moment we need now is to buy additional coins on spot. Be aware of back pressure. However, for spot trading it will be fine, but trading futures is very risky. Currently, my view is that Altseason will be coming soon.

I wasn't expecting a big rise after ETF since it was mostly empty hype without an actual direct and immediate effect on the price but I was expecting a small rise at the very least. With the drop out of nowhere and without reason the only conclusion is market manipulation and panic sell specially when you consider that we are at the pre-halving-period which is known to be a bullish trend!

Has it bottomed? Probably not but the dump doesn't seem to have the biggest strength to continue for that long.

IF you zoom out



Rumors about ETFs started in October, when the price was at $27,000, and from there the price continued to rise, reaching $49,000. The price almost doubled due to ETFs, and it is healthy to see a correction in this price. The correction may lead us in the short term to $37,000 to $35,000, but inevitably To be a starting point for a new rise, as it is unlikely that we will see $20,000 again, and after the price rise, it is unlikely that we will see $30,000 again. Start worrying if we drop below $27,000 and not $40,000.

Has bitcoin bottomed yet right now? interested question after ETF bitcoin approval and for the first time this year bitcoin broken the support price until $39,400, usually have prediction with bottom or support bitcoin price around $40k but can't stable before bitcoin going dump drastically with ETF effect. Do you have assumption behind ETF approval have manipulation make bitcoin have going to lower price.

Unfortunately, the acceptable ETF bitcoin approval have more negative than positive effect looking bitcoin trend keep going down since first time ETF approval published. Still can't predict until how much bitcoin lower price again before bounce back to higher price and reach another new highest price for this year.

It seems like the $40,000 psychological support has broken, and currently the price of Bitcoin by the time I'm posting this is at around $39,700.
I think it's too early to say that we will see Bitcoin staying below $40,000 since we are only seeing this happening for a few hours only, but looking at the daily chart of Bitcoin base on what OP has shared, it seems like Bitcoin will continue to go down in the upcoming days.

It seems like the acceptance of a Spot Bitcoin ETF has more negative effects towards in the market than positive. I think Grayscale dumping some Bitcoins have an effect on this (correct me though. Nevertheless, I expect a more bearish weeks for the crypto market.

Well, every dip is an opportunity, so take this opportunity to buy more Bitcoin at a lower price.

According to this Coindesk article, the biggest selling pressure could be over (or close to over) though.


Nonetheless, the selling could continue a bit, but not caused by such events, but by trader psychology. Now that we're already seen dips below 40k, some will wonder if a bearish wave pattern is forming, and may be cautious with new buys. I think also the fact that the ETF top was close to the psychological barrier of 50k may play a role.

I was honestly surprised by the market going down after the ETF approval. It's either a prolonged correction or something else that regular crypto enthusiasts might not be aware of. In such times, the key is to stay calm and wait until the ETF market adjusts to the new financial asset. After all, it primarily involves traditional finances and companies. Bitcoin is something new for them, so they are likely approaching it cautiously. Patience is crucial in these situations.

Not really shocking, they've been able to accumulate when Bitcoins price is still $20k+ then what would be expecting? of course they would really be deciding on unloading their bags on which it would really be just that normal that they would really be that selling those coins for profits and its none of our business on how they would really be handling their coins. Even if we dont like for those coins to be sold
then there's nothing we can do if they have decided on getting profits which its a typical thing and easy money considering that they had bought on the bottom or much cheaper.
We do know that fundamentals doesnt always work crypto on which it could neither effect or not the market positively or really just being neutral.
Bottom? Everything hasnt bottomed yet, we should wait pre-halving and post halving season on which these are the times or moments where extreme dips happen.

It will probably bottom when they don’t sell $500M worth of bitcoins every day. So far every day it’s been half a billion. We are able to absorb most of this with the inflows from the other etfs but eventually these inflows will start to decline more and more.

So they either need to sell less or the market needs to buy more of the shares for the etfs to generate enough inflows. It’s looking very bearish especially at the Asian open and we are just dumping towards the $40k area.

Without that much technical explanation about what was happening. I'll apply the logic about going up and low.

Like when the market's high, everyone should expect that there's an upcoming drop. In short, if something comes down then it should come up anytime soon.

If Bitcoin has bottomed already, we'll start to see the newer higher lows soon but before that there's the halving coming soon and it's the same with the effect of Bitcoin Spot ETF that it will take time to impact.

I also predicted a bearish trend in the first quarter of this year but the hype around the ETF approval wanted to shift the focus of the market following a regular pattern of past trends that before halving the bearish sentiment takes effect. Right now with this market swing been caused by some institutional sales like Garyscale we need to relax to understand how the market reacts to it. The selling pressure is definitely settling in but still the $40k support level seems firm to be broken but if this sell power persists then we might be at seeing it breaking that support as others predicted above. The upward trend line has been broken out by bitcoin and a retest has been done but if another retest is done again and the trend doesn’t go back into the trend line then the &40k support will be broken and a new $38500 -$37000 new support will be set

The "Bitcoin ETF approval" hype has already been consumed by the market and the traders right now are selling and taking the profits.
I expect a stagnant/bearish market in the first half of 2024 and a post-Bitcoin halving bull run in the second half of 2024.
There's nothing to worry about, even if the price drops down to 30K USD. The market will have more bull runs this year.
I think that historically(except the beginning of 2021) January and February aren't very bullish months for Bitcoin. I know that such historical comparisons can't be always accurate, but some traders keep paying attention to this kind of data.