Will there be a hard fork before July 10 (or August 1) related to the attack on the DAO in Ethereum?
Hot and burning topic this morning, Ethereum community is shocked by an attack in the DAO. The consequence was price dip in few hours. Because of this, the development community is proposing a soft fork (with no rollback; no transactions or blocks will be “reversed”).
But can we expect hard fork to improve given situation? Thus, you have a new market at Fairlay:
Will there be a hard fork before July 10 related to the attack on the DAO in Ethereum?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-there-be-a-hard-fork-before-july-10-related-to-the-attack-on-the-dao-in-ethereum-1/.
And if you think that July 10 is too soon for this to be resolved, there is also a market for August 1:
Will there be a hard fork before August 1 related to the attack on the DAO in Ethereum?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-there-be-a-hard-fork-before-august-1-related-to-the-attack-on-the-dao-in-ethereum/.
So, what is your opinion on this topic, and which side in the market do you predict it to be resolved to?
Topic: Prediction Markets on Fairlay - page 6. (Read 25358 times)
Hillary is improving, so by how many will she lead in polling on June 22?
Less than a month ago, on May 22, Donald Trump took lead against Hillary Clinton in General Election 2016 polls. But, that lead lasted for only three days, and plenty of things changed since then. Clinton got her nomination, Sanders is out of race, and she started to increase her lead in national polls once again.
Ten days ago Clinton had +2.0% lead in the polls, and it’s been going up ever since, to +5.6% yesterday. So, will it stop soon, or will Hillary once again go over double digits lead in the polls, that she had at the middle of April?
Who will lead in Trump vs. Clinton polling on June 22?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-lead-in-trump-vs-clinton-polling-on-june-22/.
Now you can use your opinion about this topic at Fairlay market. At the moment, it looks like she will lead next week with +6.0 to 6.9%, but could she go even higher? Or will Donald Trump finally find the way to stop Hillary’s improvement in polls? He did that before, so he could do that once again.
But, people mostly think that Orlando tragedy will go in favor of Hillary, as plenty disapprove Trump’s response to shooting. Anyway, it is always interesting to track how the polls resolve, and don’t forget that you can follow day-to-day polling data at:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html.
Less than a month ago, on May 22, Donald Trump took lead against Hillary Clinton in General Election 2016 polls. But, that lead lasted for only three days, and plenty of things changed since then. Clinton got her nomination, Sanders is out of race, and she started to increase her lead in national polls once again.
Ten days ago Clinton had +2.0% lead in the polls, and it’s been going up ever since, to +5.6% yesterday. So, will it stop soon, or will Hillary once again go over double digits lead in the polls, that she had at the middle of April?
Who will lead in Trump vs. Clinton polling on June 22?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-lead-in-trump-vs-clinton-polling-on-june-22/.
Now you can use your opinion about this topic at Fairlay market. At the moment, it looks like she will lead next week with +6.0 to 6.9%, but could she go even higher? Or will Donald Trump finally find the way to stop Hillary’s improvement in polls? He did that before, so he could do that once again.
But, people mostly think that Orlando tragedy will go in favor of Hillary, as plenty disapprove Trump’s response to shooting. Anyway, it is always interesting to track how the polls resolve, and don’t forget that you can follow day-to-day polling data at:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html.
Will Marco Rubio change his mind and run for Senate reelection in 2016?
Whether Rubio will change his mind and seek reelection to the Senate is one of the questions of the week. Worried about keeping their Senate majority, a number of Rubio’s colleagues are leaning on him to run. They’ve been joined by a handful of his friends in the House, and a growing chorus of Florida elected officials.
Last week Marco Rubio dismissed questions over whether he would succumb to pressure from Washington and run for reelection in Florida, signaling he still plans to leave the chamber at year's end. "Nothing's changed," Rubio told CNN when asked if he would run for reelection.
Still, recently Rubio faced growing pressure from party leaders for him to reconsider his decision and run for reelection because top Republicans fear their crop of candidates are too weak and underfunded and could cost the party a critical Senate seat in the battle for control in the chamber.
Rubio has said that he's unlikely to run so long as his close friend, Florida Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, remains in the Senate race. Lopez-Cantera has suggested that he's not dropping out. But, top Republicans are hopeful there's time for Rubio to change his mind before the June 24 filing deadline.
Will Marco Rubio run for Senate in 2016? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-marco-rubio-run-for-senate-in-2016/.
So, what is your opinion on this topic? What will Rubio do in the following days, and will he run for Senate reelection?
Whether Rubio will change his mind and seek reelection to the Senate is one of the questions of the week. Worried about keeping their Senate majority, a number of Rubio’s colleagues are leaning on him to run. They’ve been joined by a handful of his friends in the House, and a growing chorus of Florida elected officials.
Last week Marco Rubio dismissed questions over whether he would succumb to pressure from Washington and run for reelection in Florida, signaling he still plans to leave the chamber at year's end. "Nothing's changed," Rubio told CNN when asked if he would run for reelection.
Still, recently Rubio faced growing pressure from party leaders for him to reconsider his decision and run for reelection because top Republicans fear their crop of candidates are too weak and underfunded and could cost the party a critical Senate seat in the battle for control in the chamber.
Rubio has said that he's unlikely to run so long as his close friend, Florida Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, remains in the Senate race. Lopez-Cantera has suggested that he's not dropping out. But, top Republicans are hopeful there's time for Rubio to change his mind before the June 24 filing deadline.
Will Marco Rubio run for Senate in 2016? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-marco-rubio-run-for-senate-in-2016/.
So, what is your opinion on this topic? What will Rubio do in the following days, and will he run for Senate reelection?
Will Boris Johnson become UK Prime Minister in 2016?
Brexit vote on June 23 will not only decide Britons’ future in or out of the European Union, but also the political future of British Prime Minister David Cameron and his flamboyant rival, Boris Johnson.
Cameron, who is campaigning to remain in the European Union, is in nine days going head to head with the former London mayor, who is leading the campaign for a British exit.
EU Referendum Result:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eu-referendum-result/.
Many say that it is a smart move by Johnson, as Cameron would find it very difficult to remain in office if Britain votes to leave, while some think Cameron will go regardless of the outcome of the referendum.
People think that Johnson will surely be the next UK Prime Minister, but the question is will he become one in 2016? Now you have an open market on this topic at Fairlay, so what is your opinion?
Boris Johnson to become UK Prime Minister in 2016:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-boris-johnson-become-uk-prime-minister-in-2016/.
Brexit vote on June 23 will not only decide Britons’ future in or out of the European Union, but also the political future of British Prime Minister David Cameron and his flamboyant rival, Boris Johnson.
Cameron, who is campaigning to remain in the European Union, is in nine days going head to head with the former London mayor, who is leading the campaign for a British exit.
EU Referendum Result:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eu-referendum-result/.
Many say that it is a smart move by Johnson, as Cameron would find it very difficult to remain in office if Britain votes to leave, while some think Cameron will go regardless of the outcome of the referendum.
People think that Johnson will surely be the next UK Prime Minister, but the question is will he become one in 2016? Now you have an open market on this topic at Fairlay, so what is your opinion?
Boris Johnson to become UK Prime Minister in 2016:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-boris-johnson-become-uk-prime-minister-in-2016/.
Men’s 100m and 200m in Rio: Usain Bolt vs. Justin Gatlin – who will prevail and become a hero?
We are less than two months away from the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, and thus more of you want to place prediction on the biggest events. But don’t forget that you can also offer suggestions for the smaller ones.
Of course, Men’s 100m race in always amongst the most popular events at it will be once again. And, once again, all eyes will be on Usain Bolt who won gold medals in both London and Beijing. So, can he win another 100m gold this year?
Many think that Justin Gatlin, man who won gold in Athens 2004, is the only one who can stop him, but can Yohan Blake use fight of these two and win the gold after being silver four years ago in London? Eyes of all the world will be on them.
Men's 100m winner in Rio. Predict at:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/mens-100m-winner-in-rio/.
Another interesting event will be men’s 200m race that will be held three days after 100m so some will have momentum with them. But Usain Bolt will surely be favorite on August 17, as he also won gold medals in both London and Beijing.
And though everyone will be talking about Justin Gatlin as the man who can stop him, once again Yohan Blake could use his chances, and improve even more after silver in London four years ago. So, who is your favorite to become a hero?
Men's 200m winner in Rio. Predict at:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/mens-200m-winner-in-rio/.
Anyway, both 100m and 200m will be great races and Jamaica could once again be in control of them. At the same time, Justin Gatlin could be under pressure to win gold medals as his USA again wants to be the country with most of them.
Russia has some chances, but it will be USA vs China for the most gold medals won. USA won 46 to 38 in London, China 51 to 36 in Beijing, and it will be interesting to see who will win most gold medals in Rio. Where does your prediction go?
Country to win most gold medals in Rio. Predict at:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/country-to-win-most-gold-medals-in-rio/.
We are less than two months away from the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, and thus more of you want to place prediction on the biggest events. But don’t forget that you can also offer suggestions for the smaller ones.
Of course, Men’s 100m race in always amongst the most popular events at it will be once again. And, once again, all eyes will be on Usain Bolt who won gold medals in both London and Beijing. So, can he win another 100m gold this year?
Many think that Justin Gatlin, man who won gold in Athens 2004, is the only one who can stop him, but can Yohan Blake use fight of these two and win the gold after being silver four years ago in London? Eyes of all the world will be on them.
Men's 100m winner in Rio. Predict at:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/mens-100m-winner-in-rio/.
Another interesting event will be men’s 200m race that will be held three days after 100m so some will have momentum with them. But Usain Bolt will surely be favorite on August 17, as he also won gold medals in both London and Beijing.
And though everyone will be talking about Justin Gatlin as the man who can stop him, once again Yohan Blake could use his chances, and improve even more after silver in London four years ago. So, who is your favorite to become a hero?
Men's 200m winner in Rio. Predict at:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/mens-200m-winner-in-rio/.
Anyway, both 100m and 200m will be great races and Jamaica could once again be in control of them. At the same time, Justin Gatlin could be under pressure to win gold medals as his USA again wants to be the country with most of them.
Russia has some chances, but it will be USA vs China for the most gold medals won. USA won 46 to 38 in London, China 51 to 36 in Beijing, and it will be interesting to see who will win most gold medals in Rio. Where does your prediction go?
Country to win most gold medals in Rio. Predict at:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/country-to-win-most-gold-medals-in-rio/.
After Hiddleston before, now Aiden Turner is the first favorite. But, who will really be the next James Bond?
Few weeks, many bookmakers have suspended bets on the next James Bond after plenty of bets were placed on Tom Hiddleston. "I don't think that announcement is coming," said Hiddleston few days ago and once again made the next James Bond market rather popular.
At the same time, rumors that Aiden Turner will be the next James Bond emerged from plenty of different sources. Still, Sam Mendes, the man behind Skyfall and Spectre, has done his best to quash rumors that the race to be the next 007 is done and dusted: "It's not a democracy. It's not The X Factor, it's not the EU referendum, it's not a public vote."
Fairlay market for the Next James Bond:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-james-bond-1/.
But, could it be Aiden Turner? He would be the surprise choice but he has numerous positives. If the producers want sexy and suave, they could do little wrong in choosing him. And he's young enough to play Bond in a half-dozen or more films over the next decade and a half.
Still, neither Tom Hiddleston or Tom Hardy are much older, while older Damian Lewis who was frontrunner last year is still among the favorites for the role. It is same with Jamie Bell and Idris Elba who has long been seen as a Bond-in-waiting. But, who (or will any) of them be the next James Bond, and are you good enough to predict the right one?
Few weeks, many bookmakers have suspended bets on the next James Bond after plenty of bets were placed on Tom Hiddleston. "I don't think that announcement is coming," said Hiddleston few days ago and once again made the next James Bond market rather popular.
At the same time, rumors that Aiden Turner will be the next James Bond emerged from plenty of different sources. Still, Sam Mendes, the man behind Skyfall and Spectre, has done his best to quash rumors that the race to be the next 007 is done and dusted: "It's not a democracy. It's not The X Factor, it's not the EU referendum, it's not a public vote."
Fairlay market for the Next James Bond:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-james-bond-1/.
But, could it be Aiden Turner? He would be the surprise choice but he has numerous positives. If the producers want sexy and suave, they could do little wrong in choosing him. And he's young enough to play Bond in a half-dozen or more films over the next decade and a half.
Still, neither Tom Hiddleston or Tom Hardy are much older, while older Damian Lewis who was frontrunner last year is still among the favorites for the role. It is same with Jamie Bell and Idris Elba who has long been seen as a Bond-in-waiting. But, who (or will any) of them be the next James Bond, and are you good enough to predict the right one?
All is set for Trump vs. Clinton, but what will be voter turnout? Small one or bigger than ever?
After few months, we are finally set for Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump election. Ted Cruz fought rather long and especially Bernie Sanders fought to the end, but after all we will get one of the most interesting election in the last few decades. But, will they be interesting to voters as well, or only to media?
Voter turnout in 2012 was 129 millions, two millions less than turnout of 131 in 2008, but what will 2016 bring? Some think that both Trump and Hillary are disliked so turnout should be lower than it was in 2012. But, at the same time, other have opinion that people will vote against one of them so turnout should be higher than in 2012.
What will be voter turnout in the US presidential elections?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/what-will-be-voter-turnout-in-the-us-presidential-elections-2/.
Anyway, because of all these factors you now have an open market with six different range of numbers on offer, from under 125 millions, to over 145. And we also have one unenthusiastic candidate Hillary Clinton, and on the other side enthusiastic candidate Donald Trump. So, who will influence more, and what is your opinion on this market?
After few months, we are finally set for Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump election. Ted Cruz fought rather long and especially Bernie Sanders fought to the end, but after all we will get one of the most interesting election in the last few decades. But, will they be interesting to voters as well, or only to media?
Voter turnout in 2012 was 129 millions, two millions less than turnout of 131 in 2008, but what will 2016 bring? Some think that both Trump and Hillary are disliked so turnout should be lower than it was in 2012. But, at the same time, other have opinion that people will vote against one of them so turnout should be higher than in 2012.
What will be voter turnout in the US presidential elections?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/what-will-be-voter-turnout-in-the-us-presidential-elections-2/.
Anyway, because of all these factors you now have an open market with six different range of numbers on offer, from under 125 millions, to over 145. And we also have one unenthusiastic candidate Hillary Clinton, and on the other side enthusiastic candidate Donald Trump. So, who will influence more, and what is your opinion on this market?
Will Hillary Clinton win the US presidency by a landslide, winning at least 370 electoral votes?
Earlier today we discussed about Donald Trump's chances to win the US presidency by a landslide, and gave reasons why some of the people think that he indeed could do that, but chances for that are still rather small. Still, if you think that Trump could do that you have an open market at Fairlay, so use the great odds given on that option:
Will the Republican nominee win the US presidency by a landslide?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-the-republican-nominee-win-the-us-presidency-by-a-landslide/.
Still, if you think that Trump has no chances, then maybe you think that Hillary could become president with a landslide victory which is an electoral victory in a political system, when one candidate or party receives an overwhelming majority of the votes or seats in the elected body, thus all but utterly eliminating the opponents.
At Fairlay market this means winning at least 370 electoral votes, so can Hillary achieve that? Many of her supporters believe that Trump stands no chances in November, and recent polls favor Hillary as well, though not as much as she was favoured before. Still, if Sanders stands behind her, she could easily defeat Trump by a landslide.
Will the Democratic nominee win the US presidency by a landslide?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-the-democratic-nominee-win-the-us-presidency-by-a-landslide/.
Because of the insulting and divisive style of the Trump campaign, many think that the Democratic electoral advantage will be even greater than in previous presidential elections. The prospect of a Trump presidency will galvanize Democratic voters to come out in huge numbers, so Hillary could win more electoral votes than Obama did in 2012.
So, what is your opinion on this? Can Hillary win in a landslide, or do you give Trump bigger chances to achieve this?
Earlier today we discussed about Donald Trump's chances to win the US presidency by a landslide, and gave reasons why some of the people think that he indeed could do that, but chances for that are still rather small. Still, if you think that Trump could do that you have an open market at Fairlay, so use the great odds given on that option:
Will the Republican nominee win the US presidency by a landslide?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-the-republican-nominee-win-the-us-presidency-by-a-landslide/.
Still, if you think that Trump has no chances, then maybe you think that Hillary could become president with a landslide victory which is an electoral victory in a political system, when one candidate or party receives an overwhelming majority of the votes or seats in the elected body, thus all but utterly eliminating the opponents.
At Fairlay market this means winning at least 370 electoral votes, so can Hillary achieve that? Many of her supporters believe that Trump stands no chances in November, and recent polls favor Hillary as well, though not as much as she was favoured before. Still, if Sanders stands behind her, she could easily defeat Trump by a landslide.
Will the Democratic nominee win the US presidency by a landslide?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-the-democratic-nominee-win-the-us-presidency-by-a-landslide/.
Because of the insulting and divisive style of the Trump campaign, many think that the Democratic electoral advantage will be even greater than in previous presidential elections. The prospect of a Trump presidency will galvanize Democratic voters to come out in huge numbers, so Hillary could win more electoral votes than Obama did in 2012.
So, what is your opinion on this? Can Hillary win in a landslide, or do you give Trump bigger chances to achieve this?
Will Donald Trump win the US presidency by a landslide, winning at least 370 electoral votes?
A landslide victory is an electoral victory in a political system, when one candidate or party receives an overwhelming majority of the votes or seats in the elected body, thus all but utterly eliminating the opponents. And, against all odds, it is time to discuss can Doland Trump, as a Republican nominee, win the US presidency by a landslide.
Okay, maybe it is too soon to talk about this as Trump is still behind Hillary in polls for the next President, though he needs to take ’only’ 270 electoral votes to win the 2016 presidential election. In order to win it by a landslide he should take 370 electoral votes. It really looks impossible, but all the things Trump did this year looked impossible as well.
Will the Republican nominee win the US presidency by a landslide?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-the-republican-nominee-win-the-us-presidency-by-a-landslide/.
Become of this ’Trump factor’, there is more and more people who think that he can make another surprise, and some like cartoonist Scott Adams tried to explain what candidate Trump is doing to win campaign hearts and minds. Here are the factors that are part of why Adams believes Donald Trump will win the presidency (in a landslide):
1. Trump knows people are basically irrational.
2. Knowing that people are irrational, Trump aims to appeal on an emotional level.
3. By running on emotion, facts don’t matter.
4. If facts don’t matter, you can’t really be “wrong.”
5. With fewer facts in play, it’s easier to bend reality.
6. To bend reality, Trump is a master of identity politics — and identity is the strongest persuader.
So, do you agree with Adams that Trump can use this to win in a landslide? Then use great odds that you have at Fairlay.
A landslide victory is an electoral victory in a political system, when one candidate or party receives an overwhelming majority of the votes or seats in the elected body, thus all but utterly eliminating the opponents. And, against all odds, it is time to discuss can Doland Trump, as a Republican nominee, win the US presidency by a landslide.
Okay, maybe it is too soon to talk about this as Trump is still behind Hillary in polls for the next President, though he needs to take ’only’ 270 electoral votes to win the 2016 presidential election. In order to win it by a landslide he should take 370 electoral votes. It really looks impossible, but all the things Trump did this year looked impossible as well.
Will the Republican nominee win the US presidency by a landslide?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-the-republican-nominee-win-the-us-presidency-by-a-landslide/.
Become of this ’Trump factor’, there is more and more people who think that he can make another surprise, and some like cartoonist Scott Adams tried to explain what candidate Trump is doing to win campaign hearts and minds. Here are the factors that are part of why Adams believes Donald Trump will win the presidency (in a landslide):
1. Trump knows people are basically irrational.
2. Knowing that people are irrational, Trump aims to appeal on an emotional level.
3. By running on emotion, facts don’t matter.
4. If facts don’t matter, you can’t really be “wrong.”
5. With fewer facts in play, it’s easier to bend reality.
6. To bend reality, Trump is a master of identity politics — and identity is the strongest persuader.
So, do you agree with Adams that Trump can use this to win in a landslide? Then use great odds that you have at Fairlay.
Will Bernie Sanders drop out before July? Could California primary answer that question?
After four months we have come to the final day of the primaries (not counting the June 14 District of Columbia primary) that could answer another important question: Will Bernie Sanders finally drop out of the race? And this could be decided by the results of the California Primary that is one of the most popular Fairlay primary markets:
Who will win the California Democratic primary?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-california-democratic-primary-1/.
It is almost sure that even before the first vote is counted in California on Tuesday, the Hillary Clinton campaign and the TV networks will announce that she has clinched the nomination. Still, if he wins California, Bernie Sanders would be more inclined to follow through on his pledge to contest the nomination at the convention. Messy one, indeed.
So, after Tuesday results come in Sanders will have two options: whether to directly acknowledge Hillary’s nomination and drop out of the race or intensify his fight to the July convention in Philadelphia. And, no one knows what will happen while there are plenty different opinions: he should drop, he should stay, he should fight for specific platforms.
Will Bernie Sanders drop out before July 1?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-bernie-sanders-drop-out-before-july-1-1/.
Anyway, you surely have your opinion on what should Sanders do, and will he do it. And now you have also have an open market at Fairlay to predict will he drop out from the race before July. And hurry up to predict, because odds could change a lot after California primaries, or maybe Sanders could even drop out tomorrow and thus close the market.
After four months we have come to the final day of the primaries (not counting the June 14 District of Columbia primary) that could answer another important question: Will Bernie Sanders finally drop out of the race? And this could be decided by the results of the California Primary that is one of the most popular Fairlay primary markets:
Who will win the California Democratic primary?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-california-democratic-primary-1/.
It is almost sure that even before the first vote is counted in California on Tuesday, the Hillary Clinton campaign and the TV networks will announce that she has clinched the nomination. Still, if he wins California, Bernie Sanders would be more inclined to follow through on his pledge to contest the nomination at the convention. Messy one, indeed.
So, after Tuesday results come in Sanders will have two options: whether to directly acknowledge Hillary’s nomination and drop out of the race or intensify his fight to the July convention in Philadelphia. And, no one knows what will happen while there are plenty different opinions: he should drop, he should stay, he should fight for specific platforms.
Will Bernie Sanders drop out before July 1?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-bernie-sanders-drop-out-before-july-1-1/.
Anyway, you surely have your opinion on what should Sanders do, and will he do it. And now you have also have an open market at Fairlay to predict will he drop out from the race before July. And hurry up to predict, because odds could change a lot after California primaries, or maybe Sanders could even drop out tomorrow and thus close the market.
Who will lead in Trump vs. Clinton polling on June 9?
Ten days ago it looked like Donald Trump could increase his lead ahead of Hillary Clinton in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls, but that didn’t happen.
In fact, after having 0.2% lead from May 21 to May 25, Donald Trump lost it after that and Hillary started to gain the lead back. First with 1.0% lead, and then with the 1.5% lead in the last couple of days.
So, what will happen in the following seven days, till June 9? Many think that Hillary will continue to improve her lead in polling, so you have an option that she will even go over 3.0% lead.
Still, changes are easily made, so those of you who believe polls will go back to Trump’s side have great odds at Fairlay market. Anyway, you have five options so try to predict the right one at:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-lead-in-trump-vs-clinton-polling-on-june-9/.
Ten days ago it looked like Donald Trump could increase his lead ahead of Hillary Clinton in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls, but that didn’t happen.
In fact, after having 0.2% lead from May 21 to May 25, Donald Trump lost it after that and Hillary started to gain the lead back. First with 1.0% lead, and then with the 1.5% lead in the last couple of days.
So, what will happen in the following seven days, till June 9? Many think that Hillary will continue to improve her lead in polling, so you have an option that she will even go over 3.0% lead.
Still, changes are easily made, so those of you who believe polls will go back to Trump’s side have great odds at Fairlay market. Anyway, you have five options so try to predict the right one at:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-lead-in-trump-vs-clinton-polling-on-june-9/.
Will either Democrats or Republicans control both Congress and the White House after the elections?
We are five months and six days away from the US Elections, and it is time to once again ask a question about the chances that one party takes complete control after them with the undivided government, by taking control of both Congress and the White House. So, what are the chances for this to happen?
At the moment, it looks like this could happen to Republicans before it happens to Democrats. They are already in control of Congress, though that could change as they are they’re defending 24 of the 34 Senate seats up in 2016. And nowadays Donald Trump has much bigger chances for the win, then he had few months ago.
Republicans to control both Congress and the White House after the elections:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/republicans-to-control-both-congress-and-the-white-house-after-the-elections-1/.
Still, as Republicans are defending 24 of the 34 seats up in 2016, Democrats are pleased with the fact that seven of those are in states that voted for Obama. Not once but twice. So, many think that Senate maps looks better and better for Democrats, and Hillary should win as well. But, will she indeed, or will Trump stop her?
Republicans to control both Congress and the White House after the elections:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/democrats-to-control-both-congress-and-the-white-house-after-the-elections-1/.
Anyway, there is plenty of options open but if you think any of the parties can form the undivided government, you have great odds on that happening at both Fairlay markets. So, what is your opinion on this?
We are five months and six days away from the US Elections, and it is time to once again ask a question about the chances that one party takes complete control after them with the undivided government, by taking control of both Congress and the White House. So, what are the chances for this to happen?
At the moment, it looks like this could happen to Republicans before it happens to Democrats. They are already in control of Congress, though that could change as they are they’re defending 24 of the 34 Senate seats up in 2016. And nowadays Donald Trump has much bigger chances for the win, then he had few months ago.
Republicans to control both Congress and the White House after the elections:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/republicans-to-control-both-congress-and-the-white-house-after-the-elections-1/.
Still, as Republicans are defending 24 of the 34 seats up in 2016, Democrats are pleased with the fact that seven of those are in states that voted for Obama. Not once but twice. So, many think that Senate maps looks better and better for Democrats, and Hillary should win as well. But, will she indeed, or will Trump stop her?
Republicans to control both Congress and the White House after the elections:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/democrats-to-control-both-congress-and-the-white-house-after-the-elections-1/.
Anyway, there is plenty of options open but if you think any of the parties can form the undivided government, you have great odds on that happening at both Fairlay markets. So, what is your opinion on this?
Who will rule Westeros? Daenerys? Jon Snow? Bran Stark?
Game of Thrones is getting more interesting from week to week, and last night we had the sixth episode of the sixth season. And though this one didn’t Hold the Door, it was another interesting one.
Once again Daenerys showed how much she wants to rule the seven kingdoms, so it is probably the right time to ask a big question: Who will rule Westeros? We are out of books, series is going on its own and the end is near.
So, who will rule it? Will Daenerys use her dragons, or Bran Stark his powers, or Jon Snow his… well, how much lives those he exactly has? Those free are given biggest chances at the Fairlay market that you can find at:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-rule-westeros/.
But, Arya Stark is getting more and more dangerous, and he is again on her own, and Sansa is getting smarter as well. And, what is with Tryrion? He drinks, and he knows things. Can he use that to get to the Iron Throne?
What about all the other Lannisters, Tyrells, Greyjoys, and people like Petyr Baelish? Anyway, you surely have your opinion so share it here, and at the same some use the great odds by predicting (hopefully right) the ruler of Westeros.
Game of Thrones is getting more interesting from week to week, and last night we had the sixth episode of the sixth season. And though this one didn’t Hold the Door, it was another interesting one.
Once again Daenerys showed how much she wants to rule the seven kingdoms, so it is probably the right time to ask a big question: Who will rule Westeros? We are out of books, series is going on its own and the end is near.
So, who will rule it? Will Daenerys use her dragons, or Bran Stark his powers, or Jon Snow his… well, how much lives those he exactly has? Those free are given biggest chances at the Fairlay market that you can find at:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-rule-westeros/.
But, Arya Stark is getting more and more dangerous, and he is again on her own, and Sansa is getting smarter as well. And, what is with Tryrion? He drinks, and he knows things. Can he use that to get to the Iron Throne?
What about all the other Lannisters, Tyrells, Greyjoys, and people like Petyr Baelish? Anyway, you surely have your opinion so share it here, and at the same some use the great odds by predicting (hopefully right) the ruler of Westeros.
Will be a third party candidate in any of the presidential general election debates?
With Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton on two sides, this years’ presidential general election debates are going to be all but boring. And the nonpartisan, nonprofit Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) already announced sites and dates for three presidential and one vice presidential debates during the 2016 general election.
Those three debates will be held in September and October on three different locations, but the most interesting question before the debates start is will there be a third party candidate, one that could favor either Hillary or Trump?
Some think that will not happen as CPD is controlled in a way that keep third parties out, while most agree that Trump will be negative towards the third candidate, and probably say that it is only there to stop him from winning.
But, with this in mind, could the addition of the third party candidate be pushed on by some of the parties in its own interest? Could even Trump favor someone who is likely to take votes away from Hillary, or could be this other way around? As in 1992, when Clinton won with 42% of the popular vote because Perot took votes away from Bush.
At the moment, the only question in can presumed Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson get 15% in an average of five national polls, though he’s been recently polling at 10%. Still, CPD could lower the standards, or even other independent candidate could get the attention. Anyway, both options are opened and now you have an open market at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-be-a-third-party-in-any-of-the-presidential-debates/.
With Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton on two sides, this years’ presidential general election debates are going to be all but boring. And the nonpartisan, nonprofit Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) already announced sites and dates for three presidential and one vice presidential debates during the 2016 general election.
Those three debates will be held in September and October on three different locations, but the most interesting question before the debates start is will there be a third party candidate, one that could favor either Hillary or Trump?
Some think that will not happen as CPD is controlled in a way that keep third parties out, while most agree that Trump will be negative towards the third candidate, and probably say that it is only there to stop him from winning.
But, with this in mind, could the addition of the third party candidate be pushed on by some of the parties in its own interest? Could even Trump favor someone who is likely to take votes away from Hillary, or could be this other way around? As in 1992, when Clinton won with 42% of the popular vote because Perot took votes away from Bush.
At the moment, the only question in can presumed Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson get 15% in an average of five national polls, though he’s been recently polling at 10%. Still, CPD could lower the standards, or even other independent candidate could get the attention. Anyway, both options are opened and now you have an open market at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-be-a-third-party-in-any-of-the-presidential-debates/.
Will Donald Trump once again lead Hillary Clinton in polling, at the start of June?
Few days ago, for the first time in this long election campaign, Donald Trump has pulled ahead of Hillary Clinton in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls. So, Clinton's double-digit lead, which she has held over the past several months, has vanished like it was never there. And it is time to ask how this happened, and what follows next?
Of course, it is not hard to see what happened. Recently, Republicans have rallied around Trump, and according to a Washington Post survey, 85% of Republicans plan to vote for their man. On the other side, Hillary still has a Bernie Sanders problem, and a recent Economist poll shows that among Sanders supporters, 55% would vote for Clinton.
And as the Sanders problem isn't going away, it's still early to predict what will happen in the long run. But, what about the short one? Who will lead polls in seven days, and by which margin? RealClearPolitics shows that yesterday Clinton had +1.0, but before that Trump had a +0.2. So, make your prediction for the poll margins on June 2:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-lead-in-trump-vs-clinton-polling-on-june-2/.
Markets are mostly divided about who will have lead in the following polls, and in the following few weeks they will mostly go both side from day to day, but this gives you great odds if you guess the right margin. So, do you think that Sanders will harm Hillary even more in the following days, or could she gain back her big lead in the election polls?
Few days ago, for the first time in this long election campaign, Donald Trump has pulled ahead of Hillary Clinton in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls. So, Clinton's double-digit lead, which she has held over the past several months, has vanished like it was never there. And it is time to ask how this happened, and what follows next?
Of course, it is not hard to see what happened. Recently, Republicans have rallied around Trump, and according to a Washington Post survey, 85% of Republicans plan to vote for their man. On the other side, Hillary still has a Bernie Sanders problem, and a recent Economist poll shows that among Sanders supporters, 55% would vote for Clinton.
And as the Sanders problem isn't going away, it's still early to predict what will happen in the long run. But, what about the short one? Who will lead polls in seven days, and by which margin? RealClearPolitics shows that yesterday Clinton had +1.0, but before that Trump had a +0.2. So, make your prediction for the poll margins on June 2:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-lead-in-trump-vs-clinton-polling-on-june-2/.
Markets are mostly divided about who will have lead in the following polls, and in the following few weeks they will mostly go both side from day to day, but this gives you great odds if you guess the right margin. So, do you think that Sanders will harm Hillary even more in the following days, or could she gain back her big lead in the election polls?
The UK's EU referendum: Will UK remain, what will be remain vote %, and what turnout %?
We are less than a month away from the UK's EU referendum scheduled for Thursday, 23 June. People of the UK will on that day decide whether Britain should leave or remain in the European Union.
And though few months ago many thought that the UK will easily leave the European Union, recent opinion polls show that its people will probably vote to stay in the EU. Still, if you think that voting for leaving the European Union is still possible, then you can use great odds on this option at:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eu-referendum-result/.
You can also follow by predicting the official % of votes that will go in favor of staying in the EU. Are we going to have some huge surprises like less than 40% people voting to remain, or even over 70%?
Still, some realistic results are more favorable, like that in the range of the 55.01% - 60% votes to remain. But, nothing is sure so if you can predict the right percentage of votes to remain in the EU in the UK’s EU referendum, then you can as well use great odds that you have on offer at Fairlay market:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eu-referendum-to-remain-vote-percentage/.
And, what about referendum turnout? Will recent polls that people want to vote in the favor of staying stop people from even voting? Or will turnout be huge? You can go with 67.5% and under; or 67.6% and over, so predict at:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eu-referendum-referendum-turnout/.
We are less than a month away from the UK's EU referendum scheduled for Thursday, 23 June. People of the UK will on that day decide whether Britain should leave or remain in the European Union.
And though few months ago many thought that the UK will easily leave the European Union, recent opinion polls show that its people will probably vote to stay in the EU. Still, if you think that voting for leaving the European Union is still possible, then you can use great odds on this option at:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eu-referendum-result/.
You can also follow by predicting the official % of votes that will go in favor of staying in the EU. Are we going to have some huge surprises like less than 40% people voting to remain, or even over 70%?
Still, some realistic results are more favorable, like that in the range of the 55.01% - 60% votes to remain. But, nothing is sure so if you can predict the right percentage of votes to remain in the EU in the UK’s EU referendum, then you can as well use great odds that you have on offer at Fairlay market:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eu-referendum-to-remain-vote-percentage/.
And, what about referendum turnout? Will recent polls that people want to vote in the favor of staying stop people from even voting? Or will turnout be huge? You can go with 67.5% and under; or 67.6% and over, so predict at:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eu-referendum-referendum-turnout/.
Will Paul Ryan endorse Donald Trump for president these days?
As there is not much fuss with the primaries, popular topic that emerged these days is will, and when, Paul Ryan endorse Donald Trump for president? With this move he would end a nearly unprecedented standoff between the House speaker and his party’s presumptive presidential nominee.
Trump’s campaign manager, Paul Manafort, told that he expects Ryan to endorse the party’s nominee as early as this week, but on the other side Ryan aides say nothing has been decided about a possible Trump endorsement.
And, as many think that the endorsement will come in the following days, others are sure that Ryan will continue to distance himself from the combative Trump enough to leave him in a good position to run in 2020 if the billionaire is trounced in November.
Also, for Ryan to endorse Trump, he would have to explain away deep divisions between his positions and Trump’s. But if he decides to endorse publicly, that wouldn’t matter so much. So, what will Paul Ryan do? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-paul-ryan-endorse-donald-trump-for-president-before-june-15/.
As there is not much fuss with the primaries, popular topic that emerged these days is will, and when, Paul Ryan endorse Donald Trump for president? With this move he would end a nearly unprecedented standoff between the House speaker and his party’s presumptive presidential nominee.
Trump’s campaign manager, Paul Manafort, told that he expects Ryan to endorse the party’s nominee as early as this week, but on the other side Ryan aides say nothing has been decided about a possible Trump endorsement.
And, as many think that the endorsement will come in the following days, others are sure that Ryan will continue to distance himself from the combative Trump enough to leave him in a good position to run in 2020 if the billionaire is trounced in November.
Also, for Ryan to endorse Trump, he would have to explain away deep divisions between his positions and Trump’s. But if he decides to endorse publicly, that wouldn’t matter so much. So, what will Paul Ryan do? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-paul-ryan-endorse-donald-trump-for-president-before-june-15/.
Will Sanders close South Dakota, and will Hillary win in New Mexico on the penultimate voting day?
It is another Tuesday, but this time with nothing interesting on the US Presidential Election scene. All is finished with the Republicans, so we can focus even more on June 7, the penultimate voting day in the Democratic primary. You already have at Fairlay offer market for California primary and you can make your prediction on it at:
California Democratic Primary
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-california-democratic-primary-1/.
California is one of the six states holding a Democratic primary on June 7, alongside North Dakota, Montana, New Jersey, South Dakota and New Mexico, all of them before Washington, D.C., on June 14. And though it is almost sure that Hillary will be Democratic nominee, it will be interesting to see how much will Sanders harm her to the end.
He is a huge favorite to win Montana and North Dakota, but it will be interesting to see can he easily close South Dakota as well. Many think that it is one of the closest races left, but demographics of the state favor Bernie. But recently even Bill Clinton held a South Dakota campaign event on behalf of his wife. So can that help Hillary? Predict at:
South Dakota Democratic Primary
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-south-dakota-democratic-primary/.
And though she could lose both North and South Dakota, as well as Montana, Hillary is a large favorite to win New Jersey, while she hopes that she can add to it California and New Mexico. Demographics of New Mexico favor Hillary, she wins in areas with large Hispanic populations, as well as the fact that New Mexico is a closed primary.
“We’re going to win this state,” Bernie Sanders told a crowd of supporters in Santa Fe few days ago. So, Bernie thinks that he can use his recent momentum to win New Mexico as well. Some even think that Bill doing campaigns on her behalf could hurt Hillary. Can Bernie make a surprise win, or it will be big win for Hillary? Predict at Fairlay:
New Mexico Democratic Primary
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-new-mexico-democratic-primary/.
So, what do you think about these primaries, and would you like to have some other events created as well?
It is another Tuesday, but this time with nothing interesting on the US Presidential Election scene. All is finished with the Republicans, so we can focus even more on June 7, the penultimate voting day in the Democratic primary. You already have at Fairlay offer market for California primary and you can make your prediction on it at:
California Democratic Primary
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-california-democratic-primary-1/.
California is one of the six states holding a Democratic primary on June 7, alongside North Dakota, Montana, New Jersey, South Dakota and New Mexico, all of them before Washington, D.C., on June 14. And though it is almost sure that Hillary will be Democratic nominee, it will be interesting to see how much will Sanders harm her to the end.
He is a huge favorite to win Montana and North Dakota, but it will be interesting to see can he easily close South Dakota as well. Many think that it is one of the closest races left, but demographics of the state favor Bernie. But recently even Bill Clinton held a South Dakota campaign event on behalf of his wife. So can that help Hillary? Predict at:
South Dakota Democratic Primary
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-south-dakota-democratic-primary/.
And though she could lose both North and South Dakota, as well as Montana, Hillary is a large favorite to win New Jersey, while she hopes that she can add to it California and New Mexico. Demographics of New Mexico favor Hillary, she wins in areas with large Hispanic populations, as well as the fact that New Mexico is a closed primary.
“We’re going to win this state,” Bernie Sanders told a crowd of supporters in Santa Fe few days ago. So, Bernie thinks that he can use his recent momentum to win New Mexico as well. Some even think that Bill doing campaigns on her behalf could hurt Hillary. Can Bernie make a surprise win, or it will be big win for Hillary? Predict at Fairlay:
New Mexico Democratic Primary
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-new-mexico-democratic-primary/.
So, what do you think about these primaries, and would you like to have some other events created as well?
What will be the End of the year price of Bitcoin? Under $500, or even over $600?
Bitcoin price is always a popular topic, but even more recently as we are less than two months away from the Halving and many think that it will change the price of bitcoin. Change it a Lot. But how much is a lot?
Because of this you already have Fairlay market about the Price of Bitcoin 30 days after the Halving (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/price-of-bitcoin-30-days-after-the-halving/), but some think that 30 days after the Halving is rather short period of time in the context of bigger change.
Okay, so what will happen till the end of the year? Many think that recent period without bigger changes is the sure sign that the huge ones are coming, and even some of the experts think that the price will not be in hundreds but in thousands.
Still, you all know that those overestimations are rarely true, but can Bitcoin price at the end of the year close at $600 or higher? That isn’t such a huge number and it is one of the options at Fairlay ‘End of the year price of Bitcoin’ market that you can find here:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/end-of-the-year-price-of-bitcoin/.
If you think that excitement with Halving is not a good thing and that other factors influence the price even more, then you can predict that the price will stay under $500 even at the end of the year.
Anyway, you now have another Bitcoin price related market open and thus you can earn even more of them if you predict right the range at which Bitcoin will be at the end of this year. As usual, you can suggest your own Bitcoin related markets. So, which other ones would you like to have created?
Bitcoin price is always a popular topic, but even more recently as we are less than two months away from the Halving and many think that it will change the price of bitcoin. Change it a Lot. But how much is a lot?
Because of this you already have Fairlay market about the Price of Bitcoin 30 days after the Halving (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/price-of-bitcoin-30-days-after-the-halving/), but some think that 30 days after the Halving is rather short period of time in the context of bigger change.
Okay, so what will happen till the end of the year? Many think that recent period without bigger changes is the sure sign that the huge ones are coming, and even some of the experts think that the price will not be in hundreds but in thousands.
Still, you all know that those overestimations are rarely true, but can Bitcoin price at the end of the year close at $600 or higher? That isn’t such a huge number and it is one of the options at Fairlay ‘End of the year price of Bitcoin’ market that you can find here:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/end-of-the-year-price-of-bitcoin/.
If you think that excitement with Halving is not a good thing and that other factors influence the price even more, then you can predict that the price will stay under $500 even at the end of the year.
Anyway, you now have another Bitcoin price related market open and thus you can earn even more of them if you predict right the range at which Bitcoin will be at the end of this year. As usual, you can suggest your own Bitcoin related markets. So, which other ones would you like to have created?
Will Florida pass the medical marijuana initiative in 2016?
Forida voters overwhelmingly support legalization of medical marijuana, pollsters said recently, and most also favor legalization of recreational pot use. Medical pot smoking in already on the November ballot, so it is time to put it at Fairlay market as well:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/florida-to-pass-the-medical-marijuana-initiative-in-2016/.
So, according to the market, Florida Right to Medical Marijuana Initiative is likely to pass this time. Still, many think that medical marijuana supporters shouldn't count on a victory just yet. Does that mean that predicting No on this market could be a smart choice?
Support for medical marijuana was also high before the 2014 election, but before an opposition campaign raised doubts among voters. Opponents have promised a vigorous opposition effort this year, which again could drive down support.
Also, the constitutional amendment requires 60 percent of the vote to pass. And few days ago the well-funded campaign opposing Florida’s medical marijuana ballot initiative released a new video advertisement calling the proposal a ‘scam to legalize pot.’
What is your opinion on this market, and do you want to see some similar ones created as well? And don't forget that already have an open market on whether California will legalise marijuana in 2016. So, use your time to also predict that one at:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/california-to-legalise-marijuana-in-2016/.
Forida voters overwhelmingly support legalization of medical marijuana, pollsters said recently, and most also favor legalization of recreational pot use. Medical pot smoking in already on the November ballot, so it is time to put it at Fairlay market as well:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/florida-to-pass-the-medical-marijuana-initiative-in-2016/.
So, according to the market, Florida Right to Medical Marijuana Initiative is likely to pass this time. Still, many think that medical marijuana supporters shouldn't count on a victory just yet. Does that mean that predicting No on this market could be a smart choice?
Support for medical marijuana was also high before the 2014 election, but before an opposition campaign raised doubts among voters. Opponents have promised a vigorous opposition effort this year, which again could drive down support.
Also, the constitutional amendment requires 60 percent of the vote to pass. And few days ago the well-funded campaign opposing Florida’s medical marijuana ballot initiative released a new video advertisement calling the proposal a ‘scam to legalize pot.’
What is your opinion on this market, and do you want to see some similar ones created as well? And don't forget that already have an open market on whether California will legalise marijuana in 2016. So, use your time to also predict that one at:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/california-to-legalise-marijuana-in-2016/.
Jump to: