Texas Republican primary – Will Cruz beat Trump?
Okay, we had primaries in early states and Trump in on a three-state win streak but it is time for a Super Tuesday. A lot of that will be decided on March 1 but in the end the main talk could be only about Texas. One hundred and fifty-five GOP delegates are at stake in this primary, more than Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada combined.
But it is not only about the number of delegates in Texas, it is also about it being all or nothing for Ted Cruz as, after winning the Iowa caucuses, the senator has suffered three consecutive third place finishes. And now it is time for his home state of Texas where win is a must. Still, few days before Texas primary he is not such a huge favorite for a win.
Though Ted Cruz is around 6% above Trump on latest opinion pools, some of them see Cruz and Trump as even so a lot could be decided tonight on the Republican presidential debate in Houston. It’s the last meeting for candidates before the Super Tuesday primaries, while CNN returns yet again as the debate host. And Marco Rubio wants to fight as well.
So, tonight we could see a fight between Rubio and Cruz as it is time to decide who of them will go against Trump, while at the same time Trump could back up Rubio in this fight. All in all, it will surely be interesting in Texas, and you already have Fairlay market created with Cruz still having the biggest chances but this also means great odds on Trump:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-texas-republican-primary/.
What are your opinions on this Texas Republican primary, do you think Trump could win even here? Also, what do you think about other Super Tuesday primaries and which one of them would you like to place your bets on?
Topic: Prediction Markets on Fairlay - page 10. (Read 25352 times)
Will Republicans have a brokered convention in 2016?
Donald Trump's first-place finish in South Carolina has revived an ongoing discussion about the possibility of a brokered Republican convention and that discussion is still alive prior to the Nevada Republican caucuses in which Trump is the clear front-runner. And though Trump’s results put some Republicans into a panic it could be too late for a a brokered convention.
However, Trump dismissed the notion of a brokered convention (“I think it’s unlikely. I think I’m doing better than that, and so far, you know, I’m really on my way.”), which would occur if no candidate has the required amount of delegates to secure the nomination. The Republicans would then take the battle to the convention floor to decide on a nominee in July.
So, Republicans having that rare brokered convention this year is still a possibility though this is unlikely if Trump continues to win states by such large margins. But, there is still time for change as a brokered convention will be more likely if Rubio manages to win important states like California, West Virginia and New York and it would suit him the most due to his establishment status.
Another scenario leading to a possible brokered convention is Cruz winning in Texas on March 1 and Florida later on, and with Bush out of the race, and Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus saying on Brokered Convention: 'We're Prepared for Anything', maybe current odds at Fairlay for Republicans to have a brokered convention in 2016 could be a great bet:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-republicans-have-a-brokered-convention-in-2016-1/
So, what is your opinion on this topic, are the Republican party leaders finally taking Trump seriously and will they try to consolidate behind either Rubio or Cruz and thus go towards the brokered convention, or stand behind Trump before National Convention in July? Also, which other US Election markets would you like to see before the following primaries?
Donald Trump's first-place finish in South Carolina has revived an ongoing discussion about the possibility of a brokered Republican convention and that discussion is still alive prior to the Nevada Republican caucuses in which Trump is the clear front-runner. And though Trump’s results put some Republicans into a panic it could be too late for a a brokered convention.
However, Trump dismissed the notion of a brokered convention (“I think it’s unlikely. I think I’m doing better than that, and so far, you know, I’m really on my way.”), which would occur if no candidate has the required amount of delegates to secure the nomination. The Republicans would then take the battle to the convention floor to decide on a nominee in July.
So, Republicans having that rare brokered convention this year is still a possibility though this is unlikely if Trump continues to win states by such large margins. But, there is still time for change as a brokered convention will be more likely if Rubio manages to win important states like California, West Virginia and New York and it would suit him the most due to his establishment status.
Another scenario leading to a possible brokered convention is Cruz winning in Texas on March 1 and Florida later on, and with Bush out of the race, and Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus saying on Brokered Convention: 'We're Prepared for Anything', maybe current odds at Fairlay for Republicans to have a brokered convention in 2016 could be a great bet:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-republicans-have-a-brokered-convention-in-2016-1/
So, what is your opinion on this topic, are the Republican party leaders finally taking Trump seriously and will they try to consolidate behind either Rubio or Cruz and thus go towards the brokered convention, or stand behind Trump before National Convention in July? Also, which other US Election markets would you like to see before the following primaries?
Apple vs FBI – Will Apple be held in contempt before April 1?
Okay, you really had to try a lot in order to miss this ‘fight’ between Apple and FBI that’s been lasting for the last seven days. In fact, since last Tuesday when federal magistrate-judge ruled that Apple must help the FBI break into the locked iPhone 5C of the dead shooter from the San Bernardino shooting that killed 14 people, Syed Farook.
Apple was ordered to create a weaker version of its operating system for this one device, and help the FBI crack Farook's passcode. But Apple said no as its CEO Tim Cook explained that decision in a public letter to his customers:
‘The FBI may use different words to describe this tool, but make no mistake: Building a version of iOS that bypasses security in this way would undeniably create a backdoor. And while the government may argue that its use would be limited to this case, there is no way to guarantee such control.’
At this moment, Apple has until Friday, Feb. 26 to present its legal argument against this order and over time Apple could even take this all the way up the U.S. Supreme Court. But, in the end, if Apple refuses a court order it can be held in contempt of court. Or even its CEO Tim Cook could be held in contempt of court and possibly go to jail.
Still, all this seems rather unlikely at the moment but for those of you still believing that Apple or any of its executives could be held in contempt of court by a federal judge or a magistrate before April 1, you have great odds at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/apple-to-be-held-in-contempt-before-april-1/.
So, what is your opinion on this ‘Apple vs FBI’ topic, do you think that it will soon be finished or do you think that this could be a long fight with many of the potential markets to be created down the road? And are there any specific markets that you would like to see at the moment, with all this attention this topic is getting at the moment?
Okay, you really had to try a lot in order to miss this ‘fight’ between Apple and FBI that’s been lasting for the last seven days. In fact, since last Tuesday when federal magistrate-judge ruled that Apple must help the FBI break into the locked iPhone 5C of the dead shooter from the San Bernardino shooting that killed 14 people, Syed Farook.
Apple was ordered to create a weaker version of its operating system for this one device, and help the FBI crack Farook's passcode. But Apple said no as its CEO Tim Cook explained that decision in a public letter to his customers:
‘The FBI may use different words to describe this tool, but make no mistake: Building a version of iOS that bypasses security in this way would undeniably create a backdoor. And while the government may argue that its use would be limited to this case, there is no way to guarantee such control.’
At this moment, Apple has until Friday, Feb. 26 to present its legal argument against this order and over time Apple could even take this all the way up the U.S. Supreme Court. But, in the end, if Apple refuses a court order it can be held in contempt of court. Or even its CEO Tim Cook could be held in contempt of court and possibly go to jail.
Still, all this seems rather unlikely at the moment but for those of you still believing that Apple or any of its executives could be held in contempt of court by a federal judge or a magistrate before April 1, you have great odds at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/apple-to-be-held-in-contempt-before-april-1/.
So, what is your opinion on this ‘Apple vs FBI’ topic, do you think that it will soon be finished or do you think that this could be a long fight with many of the potential markets to be created down the road? And are there any specific markets that you would like to see at the moment, with all this attention this topic is getting at the moment?
EU Referendum – Will the UK vote to stay in the EU?
After renegotiations on the UK's relationship with Europe were finalized on Friday, the UK Prime Minister David Cameron didn’t wait long as he yesterday made his historic announcement in Downing Street. So, get ready as the UK will vote on whether to remain in the EU will be made on Thursday 23 June.
How important this voting could be is best said by Mr Cameron who right away described the vote as one of the biggest decisions "in our lifetimes". Of course, citizens of the UK are those who will be deciding whether they will stay in the EU or leave it, but all the world will be eager to see what will happen in four months.
Now you have an open market in which odds are still in favor of the UK staying in the EU, as David Cameron said he would be campaigning to remain in a reformed EU, but Ministers immediately divided up into the leave and remain camps as the campaigns got under way in earnest.
But, though odds are in favor of staying, the British public are (according to the latest opinion polls) fairly evenly split, so chances that the UK could leave the EU this summer are even bigger than the first odds show. Anyway, there are going to be campaigns for both Britain's staying and exit from the EU but you can already bet at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-the-uk-vote-to-stay-in-the-eu/.
After renegotiations on the UK's relationship with Europe were finalized on Friday, the UK Prime Minister David Cameron didn’t wait long as he yesterday made his historic announcement in Downing Street. So, get ready as the UK will vote on whether to remain in the EU will be made on Thursday 23 June.
How important this voting could be is best said by Mr Cameron who right away described the vote as one of the biggest decisions "in our lifetimes". Of course, citizens of the UK are those who will be deciding whether they will stay in the EU or leave it, but all the world will be eager to see what will happen in four months.
Now you have an open market in which odds are still in favor of the UK staying in the EU, as David Cameron said he would be campaigning to remain in a reformed EU, but Ministers immediately divided up into the leave and remain camps as the campaigns got under way in earnest.
But, though odds are in favor of staying, the British public are (according to the latest opinion polls) fairly evenly split, so chances that the UK could leave the EU this summer are even bigger than the first odds show. Anyway, there are going to be campaigns for both Britain's staying and exit from the EU but you can already bet at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-the-uk-vote-to-stay-in-the-eu/.
Super Tuesday – Who will drop out before it?
Republicans came into the primaries with huge number of 17 candidates, though five of them dropped out of the race before the voting started. They were followed by five more after the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries and so the following question is who will drop out next, or, as it is put in the market, before Super Tuesday scheduled for March 1?
It is sure that Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio will stay in the race to the end as they all hope to get the Republican nomination, while Jim Gilmore is that one person who won't drop out soon even if he doesn't get any votes. So, this leaves us with John Kasich, Jeb Bush, and Ben Carson, all in question to drop after South Carolina and Nevada.
John Kasich would maybe already drop out if he didn’t gain some momentum after his great second-place finish in New Hampshire. Still, he will hardly be even among the first four in South Carolina and then that New Hampshire momentum won’t be such a big thing. But he said he would stay in the race for long and thus chances for him to drop out before Super Tuesday are still rather small, so you have great odds at Fairlay if you think he will drop out before that:
John Kasich to drop out before Super Tuesday: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/john-kasich-to-drop-out-before-super-tuesday/.
At the same time, things are much worse for Jeb Bush. He has more money for his campaign than Kasich but will hardly stay in the race as his campaign has gotten less bang for its buck than any campaign in history, spending more than $100 million in advertising just to get a combined 14 percent of the vote in Iowa or New Hampshire. So if he doesn’t get great result is South Carolina, chances are really strong that he will drop out of the race, so you can bet now on it at Fairlay:
Jeb Bush to drop out before Super Tuesday : https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/jeb-bush-to-drop-out-before-super-tuesday/.
Somewhere between Kasich and Bush is Ben Carson, though at the moment he is favored to drop as well before the Super Tuesday. His chances for winning nomination are already low so he already needs to exceed expectations in South Carolina to stay in the race, and he even hopes to win it. But even with losing badly in South Carolina, it’s not clear what Carson’s end game is, and that makes it increasingly hard to predict it, so if you know better use that and bet at Fairlay:
Ben Carson to drop out before Super Tuesday: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/ben-carson-to-drop-out-before-super-tuesday/.
Republicans came into the primaries with huge number of 17 candidates, though five of them dropped out of the race before the voting started. They were followed by five more after the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries and so the following question is who will drop out next, or, as it is put in the market, before Super Tuesday scheduled for March 1?
It is sure that Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio will stay in the race to the end as they all hope to get the Republican nomination, while Jim Gilmore is that one person who won't drop out soon even if he doesn't get any votes. So, this leaves us with John Kasich, Jeb Bush, and Ben Carson, all in question to drop after South Carolina and Nevada.
John Kasich would maybe already drop out if he didn’t gain some momentum after his great second-place finish in New Hampshire. Still, he will hardly be even among the first four in South Carolina and then that New Hampshire momentum won’t be such a big thing. But he said he would stay in the race for long and thus chances for him to drop out before Super Tuesday are still rather small, so you have great odds at Fairlay if you think he will drop out before that:
John Kasich to drop out before Super Tuesday: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/john-kasich-to-drop-out-before-super-tuesday/.
At the same time, things are much worse for Jeb Bush. He has more money for his campaign than Kasich but will hardly stay in the race as his campaign has gotten less bang for its buck than any campaign in history, spending more than $100 million in advertising just to get a combined 14 percent of the vote in Iowa or New Hampshire. So if he doesn’t get great result is South Carolina, chances are really strong that he will drop out of the race, so you can bet now on it at Fairlay:
Jeb Bush to drop out before Super Tuesday : https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/jeb-bush-to-drop-out-before-super-tuesday/.
Somewhere between Kasich and Bush is Ben Carson, though at the moment he is favored to drop as well before the Super Tuesday. His chances for winning nomination are already low so he already needs to exceed expectations in South Carolina to stay in the race, and he even hopes to win it. But even with losing badly in South Carolina, it’s not clear what Carson’s end game is, and that makes it increasingly hard to predict it, so if you know better use that and bet at Fairlay:
Ben Carson to drop out before Super Tuesday: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/ben-carson-to-drop-out-before-super-tuesday/.
The Voice UK 2016 – Who will be the Winner and who the Winning Manager?
On January 9, the fifth series of The Voice UK, a British television music competition to find new singing talent, began airing on BBC One, and they already announced that it will be the last to be aired on it before it is moved to ITV. As usually, the winner of The Voice UK receives fame, £100,000 and a record deal with Universal Republic.
Once again, this show won’t be only about its competitors but also about its coaches and for the series 5 those coaches are Ricky Wilson, Paloma Faith, Boy George, and will.i.am. If you are fan of this show you perhaps already have your favorite coach and you can bet right now for the 'The Voice UK 2016 - Winning Manager’ at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/the-voice-uk-2016-winning-manager/.
But there are only four coaches, though they are with almost same chances to win in the end, but it is even bigger task to find and bet on the right winner of the show, before odds get lower on it. They are still going through blind auditions but after six episodes there is the first favorite Kevin Simm whose 'Chandelier' already has a 1.5m YouTube views.
Second favorite is Cody Frost who on the first auditions performed ‘Lay All Your Love On Me’ that also went over 1m YouTube views, and then she is followed by Jolan who won hearts with ‘Wishing Well’ last week. Anyway, there is still a lot of the battles on The Voice UK series 5 but you should already put bets on your favorite at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/the-voice-uk-2016-winner/.
On January 9, the fifth series of The Voice UK, a British television music competition to find new singing talent, began airing on BBC One, and they already announced that it will be the last to be aired on it before it is moved to ITV. As usually, the winner of The Voice UK receives fame, £100,000 and a record deal with Universal Republic.
Once again, this show won’t be only about its competitors but also about its coaches and for the series 5 those coaches are Ricky Wilson, Paloma Faith, Boy George, and will.i.am. If you are fan of this show you perhaps already have your favorite coach and you can bet right now for the 'The Voice UK 2016 - Winning Manager’ at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/the-voice-uk-2016-winning-manager/.
But there are only four coaches, though they are with almost same chances to win in the end, but it is even bigger task to find and bet on the right winner of the show, before odds get lower on it. They are still going through blind auditions but after six episodes there is the first favorite Kevin Simm whose 'Chandelier' already has a 1.5m YouTube views.
Second favorite is Cody Frost who on the first auditions performed ‘Lay All Your Love On Me’ that also went over 1m YouTube views, and then she is followed by Jolan who won hearts with ‘Wishing Well’ last week. Anyway, there is still a lot of the battles on The Voice UK series 5 but you should already put bets on your favorite at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/the-voice-uk-2016-winner/.
Will Bitcoin Classic be adopted by April 1, 2017?
After subsequent fall of Bitcoin XT, the release of Bitcoin Classic has recently become the trending topic in Bitcoin community. It is another hard-fork of the bitcoin cryptocurrency aiming to increase the transaction processing capacity of Bitcoin by increasing its block size limit.
It is similar to the Bitcoin XT fork, though less aggressive as Bitcoin Classic promotes a single increase of the maximum block size from 1MB to 2MB, which has not achieved consensus. So the question asked by everyone at the moment will Bitcoin Classic be able to achieve it.
Bitcoin Classic is so far endorsed by a group of developers and companies that have in total around 30 percent of hash power but it is questionable can they go up to 75 percent in order activate a 2MB block size limit increase. They started well but most think that their chances are small.
Because of this, you now have open 'Will Bitcoin Classic be adopted by April 1, 2017?' market with enough time for Bitcoin Classic to become a real think and for Bitcoin to finally have its block size limit increase. And odds for this are great so if you believe in it, bet right now at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-bitcoin-classic-be-adopted-by-april-1-2017/.
After subsequent fall of Bitcoin XT, the release of Bitcoin Classic has recently become the trending topic in Bitcoin community. It is another hard-fork of the bitcoin cryptocurrency aiming to increase the transaction processing capacity of Bitcoin by increasing its block size limit.
It is similar to the Bitcoin XT fork, though less aggressive as Bitcoin Classic promotes a single increase of the maximum block size from 1MB to 2MB, which has not achieved consensus. So the question asked by everyone at the moment will Bitcoin Classic be able to achieve it.
Bitcoin Classic is so far endorsed by a group of developers and companies that have in total around 30 percent of hash power but it is questionable can they go up to 75 percent in order activate a 2MB block size limit increase. They started well but most think that their chances are small.
Because of this, you now have open 'Will Bitcoin Classic be adopted by April 1, 2017?' market with enough time for Bitcoin Classic to become a real think and for Bitcoin to finally have its block size limit increase. And odds for this are great so if you believe in it, bet right now at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-bitcoin-classic-be-adopted-by-april-1-2017/.
The A.R.B GO System + AlphaGo v Lee Sedol - Seoul 2016 - Prediction
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MabOjRtU0kA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MabOjRtU0kA
Will AlphaGo be able to defeat Lee Sedol in March Go match?
It was way back in 1997 that IBM’s Deep Blue computer defeated Gary Kasparov, who at that time was world chess champion. But almost 20 years later it will still be a huge challenge for the computer to defeat the world’s top Go player.
But, earlier this month, Google's AI company DeepMind announced that it had built a system of networks capable of beating a champion Go player. In fact, this computer named AlphaGo already defeated game's European champion.
Still, the big match is scheduled for March 9th-15th when it will take on the Go world No 1, South Korean Lee Se-dol, in a live broadcast from Seoul, South Korea. The contest also offers a $1m prize and five games will be played.
So, now you have markets created for this interesting event, and at the moment Lee Se-dol is still a small favorite but AlphaGo’s chances are also rather big, something like IBM’s Deep Blue had against Kasparov first time they played.
All in all, this could be the last human vs technology battle when it comes to board games, unless Lee Se-dol prevails. And if it is already not interesting enough, YouTube will be live streaming the series of games. Before this, bet at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/alphago-to-defeat-lee-sedol-in-march-go-match/.
It was way back in 1997 that IBM’s Deep Blue computer defeated Gary Kasparov, who at that time was world chess champion. But almost 20 years later it will still be a huge challenge for the computer to defeat the world’s top Go player.
But, earlier this month, Google's AI company DeepMind announced that it had built a system of networks capable of beating a champion Go player. In fact, this computer named AlphaGo already defeated game's European champion.
Still, the big match is scheduled for March 9th-15th when it will take on the Go world No 1, South Korean Lee Se-dol, in a live broadcast from Seoul, South Korea. The contest also offers a $1m prize and five games will be played.
So, now you have markets created for this interesting event, and at the moment Lee Se-dol is still a small favorite but AlphaGo’s chances are also rather big, something like IBM’s Deep Blue had against Kasparov first time they played.
All in all, this could be the last human vs technology battle when it comes to board games, unless Lee Se-dol prevails. And if it is already not interesting enough, YouTube will be live streaming the series of games. Before this, bet at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/alphago-to-defeat-lee-sedol-in-march-go-match/.
Nevada Republican Caucus – Another in a row for Trump?
Before coming to Nevada on February 23, Republicans will first square off to South Carolina on February 20, and in a way those results could influence Nevada votes, so you can first see at South Carolina market who is favorite to win it:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-south-carolina-republican-primary/
Of course, Donald Trump is a huge favorite to win South Carolina, while some chances are given to Ted Cruz as well. And it is not much different for the Nevada markets, though bigger chances are give to Cruz, and also some for Marco Rubio.
But Nevada could be a country with big surprises and the main reason is the limited number of polls in this state. Unlike Iowa and New Hampshire, where there were 70 to 100 polls, there were only six polls last year and none this in Nevada.
That last pool did favor Trump but either Cruz or Rubio could make a surprise win in Nevada so if you want to risk, this is market for you. If you want to bet on Trump once again, then hurry up as odds will surely go down once again.
Nevada Republican Caucus – Bet at Fairlay: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-2016-nevada-republican-caucus/
Nevada Democratic Caucus – Hillary to confirm her control?
So, without too many pools, Nevada Caucus could bring a surprise among Democrats as well. Though, chances for this are a bit less than it is with Republicans, as the the last poll showed Hillary Clinton ahead of Bernie Sanders by 23 points.
Unlike Republicans, Nevada Caucus comes for Democrats on February 20, seven days before South Carolina primaries, so they are in a way more important, as they could confirm that Hillary is much bigger favorite than it was shown at first.
As for Sanders, he is yet to demonstrate strength in a state whose electorate isn’t more than 90 percent white. Only 65 percent of voters were white in the 2008 Democratic caucus in Nevada, so with this Hillary could be a rather good bet.
Nevada Democratic Caucus – Bet at Fairlay: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-2016-nevada-democratic-caucus/
Before coming to Nevada on February 23, Republicans will first square off to South Carolina on February 20, and in a way those results could influence Nevada votes, so you can first see at South Carolina market who is favorite to win it:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-south-carolina-republican-primary/
Of course, Donald Trump is a huge favorite to win South Carolina, while some chances are given to Ted Cruz as well. And it is not much different for the Nevada markets, though bigger chances are give to Cruz, and also some for Marco Rubio.
But Nevada could be a country with big surprises and the main reason is the limited number of polls in this state. Unlike Iowa and New Hampshire, where there were 70 to 100 polls, there were only six polls last year and none this in Nevada.
That last pool did favor Trump but either Cruz or Rubio could make a surprise win in Nevada so if you want to risk, this is market for you. If you want to bet on Trump once again, then hurry up as odds will surely go down once again.
Nevada Republican Caucus – Bet at Fairlay: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-2016-nevada-republican-caucus/
Nevada Democratic Caucus – Hillary to confirm her control?
So, without too many pools, Nevada Caucus could bring a surprise among Democrats as well. Though, chances for this are a bit less than it is with Republicans, as the the last poll showed Hillary Clinton ahead of Bernie Sanders by 23 points.
Unlike Republicans, Nevada Caucus comes for Democrats on February 20, seven days before South Carolina primaries, so they are in a way more important, as they could confirm that Hillary is much bigger favorite than it was shown at first.
As for Sanders, he is yet to demonstrate strength in a state whose electorate isn’t more than 90 percent white. Only 65 percent of voters were white in the 2008 Democratic caucus in Nevada, so with this Hillary could be a rather good bet.
Nevada Democratic Caucus – Bet at Fairlay: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-2016-nevada-democratic-caucus/
South Carolina Republican primary – Trump or Cruz?
Donald Trump easily won New Hampshire, without the strong runner-up, so we already have the question whether any alternative candidate can gain enough support to threaten Trump’s drive to the nomination.
Ten days before the new primaries, it is already clear that John Kasich, the second-place finisher in New Hampshire, arrives in more conservative South Caroline with both little staff or support, so he is without chances to attack Trump.
In fact, the only person who could defeat Trump in South Carolina is Iowa winner Ted Cruz who will be resuming an effort to enlist the Christian right, the key to his victory in Iowa. Still it is a big question will that help him enough.
So, Trump is once again big favorite so you might want to catch good odds on him early on, while you have strong odds if you think that Ted Cruz could defeat him once again, also you have great odds on all the other candidates together.
Bet at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-south-carolina-republican-primary/.
South Carolina Democratic primary – An easy win for Hillary?
As it was expected, Bernie Sanders won the New Hampshire with 60% of votes but it will be much harder for him to do the same thing in South Carolina. In these primaries it is Hillary Clinton with big chances that should boost her up.
It is because of the fact that Sanders’s idealistic message, which inspired a decisive victory in New Hampshire, faces a sharp test in South Carolina, where Democrats are more moderate and demographically diverse, so it will help Hillary.
But if you think that Sanders could make a surprise you can go for great odds at Fairlay, or just pick-up an easy money on Hillary. Anyway, even odds on that easy money are about to change so place your markets right now at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-south-carolina-democratic-primary/.
What are your opinions on the current primaries and what do you think who has the biggest chances in the long run?
Donald Trump easily won New Hampshire, without the strong runner-up, so we already have the question whether any alternative candidate can gain enough support to threaten Trump’s drive to the nomination.
Ten days before the new primaries, it is already clear that John Kasich, the second-place finisher in New Hampshire, arrives in more conservative South Caroline with both little staff or support, so he is without chances to attack Trump.
In fact, the only person who could defeat Trump in South Carolina is Iowa winner Ted Cruz who will be resuming an effort to enlist the Christian right, the key to his victory in Iowa. Still it is a big question will that help him enough.
So, Trump is once again big favorite so you might want to catch good odds on him early on, while you have strong odds if you think that Ted Cruz could defeat him once again, also you have great odds on all the other candidates together.
Bet at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-south-carolina-republican-primary/.
South Carolina Democratic primary – An easy win for Hillary?
As it was expected, Bernie Sanders won the New Hampshire with 60% of votes but it will be much harder for him to do the same thing in South Carolina. In these primaries it is Hillary Clinton with big chances that should boost her up.
It is because of the fact that Sanders’s idealistic message, which inspired a decisive victory in New Hampshire, faces a sharp test in South Carolina, where Democrats are more moderate and demographically diverse, so it will help Hillary.
But if you think that Sanders could make a surprise you can go for great odds at Fairlay, or just pick-up an easy money on Hillary. Anyway, even odds on that easy money are about to change so place your markets right now at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-south-carolina-democratic-primary/.
What are your opinions on the current primaries and what do you think who has the biggest chances in the long run?
The Jump – Who will win it, or will everyone get injured?
Third series of the British television winter sports show ‘The Jump’ started at the last day of January but it is gaining more and more attention from day to day, for not so popular reasons. In fact, today was announced that Made In Chelsea's Mark-Francis Vandelli has become fourth celebrity to leave Channel 4’s ‘The Jump’ after fracturing his ankle.
He joins a long list of injured celebrities forced to pull out the winter sports show. Competitor Beth Tweddle remains in hospital following neck surgery, while Fellow Olympian Rebecca Adlington and Holby City actress Tina Hobley have also withdrawn because of injury, with athlete Linford Christie has been forced to take time out due to a hamstring injury but hopes to return to the show.
Anyway, even with Channel 4 confirming that they will review safety procedures on the show, this series that follows celebrities as they try to master various winter sports including skeleton, bobsleigh, speed skating, ski cross and giant slalom will air weekly until 6 March 2016 and now you can bet on its winner at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/the-jump-winner/.
At the moment, the first favorite is Tom Parker, The Wanted singer, while good chances are also given to Dean Cain, Lois & Clark actor. Tamara Beckwith is the first favorite among the ladies and she is followed by Sid Owen, EastEnders actor and singer. Anyway, with more potential injuries, anyone could win it so be quick to place your bets as you still have the great odds on your favorites.
Third series of the British television winter sports show ‘The Jump’ started at the last day of January but it is gaining more and more attention from day to day, for not so popular reasons. In fact, today was announced that Made In Chelsea's Mark-Francis Vandelli has become fourth celebrity to leave Channel 4’s ‘The Jump’ after fracturing his ankle.
He joins a long list of injured celebrities forced to pull out the winter sports show. Competitor Beth Tweddle remains in hospital following neck surgery, while Fellow Olympian Rebecca Adlington and Holby City actress Tina Hobley have also withdrawn because of injury, with athlete Linford Christie has been forced to take time out due to a hamstring injury but hopes to return to the show.
Anyway, even with Channel 4 confirming that they will review safety procedures on the show, this series that follows celebrities as they try to master various winter sports including skeleton, bobsleigh, speed skating, ski cross and giant slalom will air weekly until 6 March 2016 and now you can bet on its winner at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/the-jump-winner/.
At the moment, the first favorite is Tom Parker, The Wanted singer, while good chances are also given to Dean Cain, Lois & Clark actor. Tamara Beckwith is the first favorite among the ladies and she is followed by Sid Owen, EastEnders actor and singer. Anyway, with more potential injuries, anyone could win it so be quick to place your bets as you still have the great odds on your favorites.
Can either Republicans or Democrats control both Congress and the White House after the elections?
As we think about short-term markets that are popular these days with all the primaries, here are two markets that could be interesting in the long run. It is about either Party gaining the undivided government, by taking control of both Congress and the White House after the 2016 elections. Could this really happen?
At the moment there are bigger chances that Republicans could have the undivided government as they currently hold the Senate majority with 54 seats, while more and more people see Trump as the next President. Still, even if he wins, they could lose the Senate, but it if you believe that Republicans will gain all the control you have great odds at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/republicans-to-control-both-congress-and-the-white-house-after-the-elections/.
At the same time, odds are even bigger for Democrats to control both Congress and the White House after the elections, even with Hillary Clinton still having the biggest chances to become the next President, but at the same time Democrats should also have to regain Senate majority. If you think that this is possible, then bet at Fairlay right this moment:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/democrats-to-control-both-congress-and-the-white-house-after-the-elections/.
As we think about short-term markets that are popular these days with all the primaries, here are two markets that could be interesting in the long run. It is about either Party gaining the undivided government, by taking control of both Congress and the White House after the 2016 elections. Could this really happen?
At the moment there are bigger chances that Republicans could have the undivided government as they currently hold the Senate majority with 54 seats, while more and more people see Trump as the next President. Still, even if he wins, they could lose the Senate, but it if you believe that Republicans will gain all the control you have great odds at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/republicans-to-control-both-congress-and-the-white-house-after-the-elections/.
At the same time, odds are even bigger for Democrats to control both Congress and the White House after the elections, even with Hillary Clinton still having the biggest chances to become the next President, but at the same time Democrats should also have to regain Senate majority. If you think that this is possible, then bet at Fairlay right this moment:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/democrats-to-control-both-congress-and-the-white-house-after-the-elections/.
First of Joey's friends to appear on Top Gear – Who will it be?
It was announced yesterday that Matt LeBlanc is confirmed as another presenter on 'New' Top Gear. 'New' as nothing will be same after Jeremy Clarkson so for the most this change showed that this show will never be as popular as it was.
Still, we all know Matt LeBlanc as Joey Tribbiani from 'Friends' and thus we love him as well. And it will be interesting to see will LeBlanc have any of Joey's friends as the guest in Top Gear this year. Or maybe all of them, or still none of them?
It wouldn't be a surprise to see him and Chandler (Matthew Perry) driving in the same car, neither would it be strange to see Ross (David Schwimmer) with them, thus male friends have best odds to be guest at market you can bet at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/news/top-gear/all/
But Rachel (Jennifer Aniston) would be such a great guest, Monica as well (Courteney Cox), while Phoebe (Lisa Kudrow) is offered least chances to be his first 'Friends' guest, so thus you have great odds if you bet on her. Don't miss them.
It was announced yesterday that Matt LeBlanc is confirmed as another presenter on 'New' Top Gear. 'New' as nothing will be same after Jeremy Clarkson so for the most this change showed that this show will never be as popular as it was.
Still, we all know Matt LeBlanc as Joey Tribbiani from 'Friends' and thus we love him as well. And it will be interesting to see will LeBlanc have any of Joey's friends as the guest in Top Gear this year. Or maybe all of them, or still none of them?
It wouldn't be a surprise to see him and Chandler (Matthew Perry) driving in the same car, neither would it be strange to see Ross (David Schwimmer) with them, thus male friends have best odds to be guest at market you can bet at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/news/top-gear/all/
But Rachel (Jennifer Aniston) would be such a great guest, Monica as well (Courteney Cox), while Phoebe (Lisa Kudrow) is offered least chances to be his first 'Friends' guest, so thus you have great odds if you bet on her. Don't miss them.
New Hampshire primaries – Trump and Sanders or another surprise?
Okay, Trump lost Iowa but what now? A lot of people think that losing to Ted Cruz could even favor Trump in the long run as having strong Cruz will help him deal more easily with Marco Rubio later on. But what about Rubio? He was strong third in Iowa, stronger than anyone thought, and even earlier he was given solid chances in New Hampshire.
So, New Hampshire should once again confirm Rubio as a strong candidate for the Republican nomination but is he able to win it? His chances are much bigger than Cruz’s but Trump is still a strong first favorite. But Trump was also strong favorite in Iowa and he lost it so… What are your opinions on New Hampshire primaries? Find current odds at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-new-hampshire-republican-primary/
When it comes to Democrats, it is almost sure that Bernie Sanders will win New Hampshire as it is one of his home turfs, as he is only stronger in his own Vermont. But Iowa is also considered one of his home turfs and he was still even with Hillary, so could Hillary make a huge surprise and defeat him in New Hampshire? You have great odds for that at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-new-hampshire-democratic-primary/
All in all, it is getting more and more interesting and February 9 and New Hampshire primaries couldn’t be more closer.
Okay, Trump lost Iowa but what now? A lot of people think that losing to Ted Cruz could even favor Trump in the long run as having strong Cruz will help him deal more easily with Marco Rubio later on. But what about Rubio? He was strong third in Iowa, stronger than anyone thought, and even earlier he was given solid chances in New Hampshire.
So, New Hampshire should once again confirm Rubio as a strong candidate for the Republican nomination but is he able to win it? His chances are much bigger than Cruz’s but Trump is still a strong first favorite. But Trump was also strong favorite in Iowa and he lost it so… What are your opinions on New Hampshire primaries? Find current odds at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-new-hampshire-republican-primary/
When it comes to Democrats, it is almost sure that Bernie Sanders will win New Hampshire as it is one of his home turfs, as he is only stronger in his own Vermont. But Iowa is also considered one of his home turfs and he was still even with Hillary, so could Hillary make a huge surprise and defeat him in New Hampshire? You have great odds for that at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-new-hampshire-democratic-primary/
All in all, it is getting more and more interesting and February 9 and New Hampshire primaries couldn’t be more closer.
Will Puerto Rico go bankrupt in 2016?
As Puerto Rico faces more than $400 million in debt service due in May and another $1.9 billion due in July, Senate Democrats sent two days ago a united message to Majority Leader Mitch McConnell: Allow Puerto Rico to declare bankruptcy on its massive $72 billion debt.
“We urge you to commit to working with us to swiftly enact legislation to give Puerto Rico access to appropriate restructuring tools,” said a letter to McConnell that was signed by all 44 Senate Democrats and two independents -- Maine’s Angus King and presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders. This is the only way Puerto Rico can avert a “growing financial and social catastrophe,” the group’s letter warned.
So, once again we have an open discussion about bankruptcy of Puerto Rico, though on the Senate side, McConnell has been silent, thus ignoring the near total economic collapse of a territory with 3.5 million U.S. citizens. Still, chances for Puerto Rico to bankrupt in 2016 are getting bigger and now you have an open market on Fairlay as well:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/puerto-rico-to-bankrupt-in-2016/.
As Puerto Rico faces more than $400 million in debt service due in May and another $1.9 billion due in July, Senate Democrats sent two days ago a united message to Majority Leader Mitch McConnell: Allow Puerto Rico to declare bankruptcy on its massive $72 billion debt.
“We urge you to commit to working with us to swiftly enact legislation to give Puerto Rico access to appropriate restructuring tools,” said a letter to McConnell that was signed by all 44 Senate Democrats and two independents -- Maine’s Angus King and presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders. This is the only way Puerto Rico can avert a “growing financial and social catastrophe,” the group’s letter warned.
So, once again we have an open discussion about bankruptcy of Puerto Rico, though on the Senate side, McConnell has been silent, thus ignoring the near total economic collapse of a territory with 3.5 million U.S. citizens. Still, chances for Puerto Rico to bankrupt in 2016 are getting bigger and now you have an open market on Fairlay as well:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/puerto-rico-to-bankrupt-in-2016/.
Michael Bloomberg to run for a president – Could this really happen?
Few months ago there were talks that Donald Trump would run as a third party candidate if he doesn't get Republican nominations and thus would (taking away his votes from the Republicans) help Democrats win the Presidential election. But, with Trump getting more popular, things have changed and now we could get a similar situation on the other side.
In the recent weeks talks started that Michael Bloomberg (business magnate, politician, and philanthropist) could run for a president and thus take the votes away from the Democratic candidate. It is possibly true that with this talks he wants to make Democrats to choose Hilary Clinton instead of Bernie Sanders in the following primaries.
So, if Trump starts to win Republican primaries and Sanders makes a surprise against Hilary, there are rather good chances that Michael Bloomberg could run for a president and maybe even decide the following elections in Trump's favor. With those unknowns, chances that he would run are still rather small but those who believe in that have great odds at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/michael-bloomberg-to-run-for-a-president/
Anyway, recent reports connected with his friends say that he will decide on presidential run in the first week of March so you have few weeks more to analyze this and place a bet. Till then, you can also suggest what kinds of markets you would like to see in the future, or give your opinion on the Presidential Election markets already created HERE.
Few months ago there were talks that Donald Trump would run as a third party candidate if he doesn't get Republican nominations and thus would (taking away his votes from the Republicans) help Democrats win the Presidential election. But, with Trump getting more popular, things have changed and now we could get a similar situation on the other side.
In the recent weeks talks started that Michael Bloomberg (business magnate, politician, and philanthropist) could run for a president and thus take the votes away from the Democratic candidate. It is possibly true that with this talks he wants to make Democrats to choose Hilary Clinton instead of Bernie Sanders in the following primaries.
So, if Trump starts to win Republican primaries and Sanders makes a surprise against Hilary, there are rather good chances that Michael Bloomberg could run for a president and maybe even decide the following elections in Trump's favor. With those unknowns, chances that he would run are still rather small but those who believe in that have great odds at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/michael-bloomberg-to-run-for-a-president/
Anyway, recent reports connected with his friends say that he will decide on presidential run in the first week of March so you have few weeks more to analyze this and place a bet. Till then, you can also suggest what kinds of markets you would like to see in the future, or give your opinion on the Presidential Election markets already created HERE.
Price of Crude Oil – Which trend will it follow?
One of the recent trending topics is that about the price of the crude oil that has been going down for the last year and a half, but even more in the last few weeks. From 37.28 USD/bbl. at the end of the year down to the 27.88 USD/bbl. on January 20. After going up to 32.18, it is currently at 30.50 so it is interesting to see which trend will it follow.
Currently, there is a talk about the six factors that will determine price of oil in 2016, from US production rates to OPEC’s inscrutable strategy. Also production and consumption of Saudi Arabia, Iran, China, and Russian should influence a lot. So it is still a big question will the price be able to stay in the $20 range that is considered to be inexpensive.
Price of Crude Oil to be Under $30.50 on April 1 – Bet at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/price-of-crude-oil-to-be-under-30-50-on-april-1/.
So, now you have an open market to predict will the price of crude oil be under or over $30.50 on April 1. So considering which trend and factors you believe in, you have good odds if you place your bets right now.
End of the year price of Crude Oil, in which range will it be – Bet at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/end-of-the-year-price-of-crude-oil/.
So, at the moment it looks like the price at the end of the year should stay in the range of $25 - 49.99, but for you who think that it could go even lower you have great odds for the end of the year price of under $25, or for any above $50, especially those over $75, though it is hard to believe that price of oil could go back so easily. But, with oil you never know. Or, do you?
One of the recent trending topics is that about the price of the crude oil that has been going down for the last year and a half, but even more in the last few weeks. From 37.28 USD/bbl. at the end of the year down to the 27.88 USD/bbl. on January 20. After going up to 32.18, it is currently at 30.50 so it is interesting to see which trend will it follow.
Currently, there is a talk about the six factors that will determine price of oil in 2016, from US production rates to OPEC’s inscrutable strategy. Also production and consumption of Saudi Arabia, Iran, China, and Russian should influence a lot. So it is still a big question will the price be able to stay in the $20 range that is considered to be inexpensive.
Price of Crude Oil to be Under $30.50 on April 1 – Bet at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/price-of-crude-oil-to-be-under-30-50-on-april-1/.
So, now you have an open market to predict will the price of crude oil be under or over $30.50 on April 1. So considering which trend and factors you believe in, you have good odds if you place your bets right now.
End of the year price of Crude Oil, in which range will it be – Bet at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/end-of-the-year-price-of-crude-oil/.
So, at the moment it looks like the price at the end of the year should stay in the range of $25 - 49.99, but for you who think that it could go even lower you have great odds for the end of the year price of under $25, or for any above $50, especially those over $75, though it is hard to believe that price of oil could go back so easily. But, with oil you never know. Or, do you?
Iowa caucuses - 7 days to go, Who will win them?
We are seven days away from the start of the long season of the US Presidential Election primaries and caucuses, both for the Republicans and Democrats. And it all starts in Iowa next Monday with the caucuses for both parties, that will be followed by the primaries in New Hampshire. But who will win them and thus make a great start, considering the influence of the opening results?
Few months ago it was a huge question who has chances among Republicans but how time easily changes a lot of that, shows the fact that today Donald Trump is by far the first favorite with only Ted Cruz having chances to defeat him in Iowa. Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson are almost without any chances so the only question at the moment is do you or do you not trust Trump. And then bet at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-iowa-republican-caucus/.
And for all of you who trust (or do not) Donald Trump you still have an open market if he will win the first four states that you can find here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-iowa-republican-caucus/.
When it comes to the results of Democrats in Iowa, things didn't change as much in the previous months, so it is still a tight race between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, with others being just formal candidates. Though Sanders' chances are raising a bit, Clinton is still the first favorite but no matter which one of them you support, you have rather strong odds at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-iowa-democratic-caucus/.
Anyway, we are heading towards some interesting weeks so you can also propose other markets that you would like to see.
We are seven days away from the start of the long season of the US Presidential Election primaries and caucuses, both for the Republicans and Democrats. And it all starts in Iowa next Monday with the caucuses for both parties, that will be followed by the primaries in New Hampshire. But who will win them and thus make a great start, considering the influence of the opening results?
Few months ago it was a huge question who has chances among Republicans but how time easily changes a lot of that, shows the fact that today Donald Trump is by far the first favorite with only Ted Cruz having chances to defeat him in Iowa. Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson are almost without any chances so the only question at the moment is do you or do you not trust Trump. And then bet at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-iowa-republican-caucus/.
And for all of you who trust (or do not) Donald Trump you still have an open market if he will win the first four states that you can find here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-iowa-republican-caucus/.
When it comes to the results of Democrats in Iowa, things didn't change as much in the previous months, so it is still a tight race between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, with others being just formal candidates. Though Sanders' chances are raising a bit, Clinton is still the first favorite but no matter which one of them you support, you have rather strong odds at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-iowa-democratic-caucus/.
Anyway, we are heading towards some interesting weeks so you can also propose other markets that you would like to see.
As we continue to patch up leaks in the global economy’s sinking ship, I have to wonder will 2016 also be the year we are reminded of why Satoshi created bitcoin in the first place.
Yes, you are so right. With all of this and few more interesting Bitcoin projects, this is surely gonna be an important year. Thus, through the time, you will have different markets in connection with the trending topic in the Bitcoin community.
And, as for the time being, with the nominations, you also have once again all the main six Oscars markets so you can now find even better odds. No matter if you trust in DiCaprio or Spotlight, or even movies like Room or Brooklyn, you can find something you would like to bet on at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/news/oscars/all/
But to be honest, after watching all the movies, Leonardo DiCaprio and Brie Larson are the main favorites for reason, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu as director as well, though the Best Picture category is far from sure. So, what are you opinions on Oscars, and would you like to see some other Oscars markets as well?
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