Topic: [prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 {<-oops!} months from now (2017 Update!) - page 14. (Read 71511 times)

Only 7 months to go until $500K coins!!

I see the spike only because all of you guys are holding to retain that value. 

Now all we need is some more positive PR to get more buyers to buy and hold and you`ll prob reach it someday lol. Or a huge event with an etf pass with sec or something.

Can't hurt, provided you only do so with money you are prepared to lose. Just like *all* investing

In the meantime, buy and HODL. 

Probably my timescale is wrong, probably my target is wrong.

Mostly though I'm still confident the underlying hypothesis remains solid. When it happens people will be utterly bamboozled.

next spike wont happen before halving.

14 months from now, mean 27 november 2015, few days before the doge era(was born in 9 december 2013)

maybe another "doge era" this year too? it would made this joke a real thing

Ha, yeah it's pretty great. I actually like it because it's so exaggerated and everyone knows it. All those predictions pulling some TA from a hat in order to prove a $15k coin by the end of the year tend to take themselves too seriously!

Love this thread 

I like your prediction, I trust that you approach

You are all pretty legit.

buy me somes milk, dude ... 

I compiled a lot of cool charts I found in this topic and made a new one, using quantum MS Paint pega-hashing algorithms.   
 
 
 
As you can see, the near future is certain, but after that becomes less clear.  We have represented this with a smoke-fog-hash-function and no small amount of my considerable artistic talent. 
 
You're welcome, bitches.

I would like to see that happening but most possibly there will be lot of spikes and dips before we hit $1M.

It was clear riiising was fallling and that eventually riiising would change his discourse to fallling's.

I had a post deleted where I called rising a troll. Ban Blitz.

Danish welfare puts one in the top 15% by income. This is below the official local poverty line. Seems legit.

Okay, more specific answer as requested.

Right now I think Bitcoin is undervalued by about ten to one, meaning I think the present value of a coin is around $2000, or, in gambling parlance, its "edge" is  about 9/10.   But because the risk is very high, I would still advise against putting over $4K of your own money into it unless you have more than $1M to invest.

The odds of success are tremendously more important in a longshot proposition than the value it would have if that success comes to pass.   Bitcoin is very nearly a pure example of this.

The downside is such a complete loss and the space between upside and downside so unlikely relative to either, and the interest that could be otherwise earned on the invested money so low relative to the upside in the time it will take, that this is very nearly a pure Kelly Bet.  Meaning, you can think of this in about the same terms as a bet you'd make and collect in the same hour at the racetrack and not go too far wrong.

The Kelly rule is, bet your bank, times the edge, divided by the odds.

The upside potential is high, but still IMO less than 5% percent likely (by which I do not mean CLOSE to 5%, I mean LESS THAN 5%).  Therefore dividing by the odds means no matter what, even if it were paying out at billions-to-one, Bitcoin should be less than 5% of your portfolio.

How much less?  Well, that's the edge.  "Edge" is expected return divided by investment - if you believe something would pay off at 10-to-1, and it's fifty-percent likely, your edge is 4/5 because, on average, 4/5 of the chips you have after you bet are chips you didn't have before the bet.  So you'd bet your bank, times 4/5, divided by 10, or 8% of your money on it.

If you think Bitcoin's odds are 10-to-1 (ie, it is 10% likely to succeed) and its edge is, say,  99%  (meaning that after a bet, on average, 99% of your coins would be winnings, which would require a 1000-to-1 payout at those odds), then you'd bet 99% of 10% of your portfolio, or 9.9%.

If you think Bitcoin's odds are 20-to-1 (ie, it is 5% likely to succeed) and its edge is 99% (meaning at 5% it would have to pay out 2000-to-1) then you'd bet 99% of 5% of your portfolio, or 4.98% of your money.

So plug in your own numbers and do your own math.

For bonus points, since I already told you what I think the edge is and what percent of someone's bank they ought to put on it, you can calculate what I think the odds and upside potential are.

Those guys who were saying in the runup that people should mortgage their houses and borrow money to invest in bitcoin?  Those guys are crazy.  

Heh.  Assume for the moment that I believe the market is entirely speculation driven.  If it is, then I profit when the crowd is wrong and I am right.  Under those circumstances I would be motivated to say that the market is fundamentals-driven and that people should be investing according to their perceived value of bitcoin. 

Now, assume for the moment that I believe the market is fundamentals-driven.  If it is, then everyone profits (or not) regardless of the activities of speculators, and there is no motive to mislead.

My point is that if I were an entirely rational trader, in either case I would tell you that you should invest according to whatever actual value you perceive for bitcoin.

But I am not entirely rational.  At this time the market is mainly driven by speculation, so I could profit in the short run by misleading people if I committed the time and effort to managing a speculative portfolio.  However, I'm investing according to fundamentals and don't really give a damn about the short-term speculators opportunities to profit because making an edge via  speculation is a full time goddamn job and I have a life to live.  Long-term investments can be made in a speculative market, whenever the speculators crash the market below the long-term value.

Therefore, I *am* managing my portfolio according to the value I perceive for Bitcoin, and I *do* believe that right now it is undervalued. 

What's your opinion on these, cryreddit?